The NBA has reformed the draft lottery.Worse teams now have less chance of getting the first pick.But does this solve the problem of refuelling?SPOX has taken a look at the reform and looks at the possible consequences.
It’s a familiar picture.Towards the end of the season, the best players from bad teams will be seated on the bench.The Phoenix Suns were a good example in the past season when they took Eric Bledsoe out of play two months before the end.The reason for this is often given that the young players should get more minutes and prove themselves.That may be true, but secretly many teams also want to increase their chances of better odds in the draft lottery.
The worst team got a chance of 25 percent, the second worst 19.9 percent, and the next team got 15.6 percent.The Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) before they traded the pick, the certainty of pulling at maximum position four.
In five of the last six drafts, one of the three worst teams won the lottery, and accordingly franchises without a bright future attempted to land among these three teams.
The league is now trying to counteract this with the reform.The three worst teams will have the same chance to win the main prize (14 percent) starting with Draft 2019.This is much less, and it is more likely that a team with a slightly better record will be able to win the lottery.
This is the essence of innovation.Teams that did not reach the playoffs but are not among the worst teams of the Association can count on better chances.While the team with the seventh worst result had a chance of 4.3 percent on the top-pick, it is now 7.5 percent.
Has Tanking been erased with this measure?Certainly not, but those in charge of the League, who described the reform as “incremental” in their press release, know that.In German: It is a first step or ratherthe optimum of what could be achieved at the moment.
A race for the worst record has, there may not be any more.Instead, the problem will only shift to a few positions to the back.The goals remain the same for all bad teams.
The NBA is a society defined by stars.There will always be teams that see the draft as a great opportunity to land a future class player.Equal opportunities do not really exist.Of course, teams have similar resources, but sites such as Milwaukee, Memphis or New Orleans have proven that past experience has shown that there are no major free agents to commit.This means that 14 or 7.5 percent probability remains better than the lack of opportunities in the Free Agency.
The Philadelphia 76s pushed it to the top with their model, also known as’ Trust the Process’, and for years the franchise benevolently stomped on the margins of insignificance and harsh criticism, even within the league.After many picks, they are now harvesting the fruits and could be competitive again for the first time since 2012.Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are three potential All Stars.
Only by draft can a smaller team get to a future star, who will then be tied up (thanks to the Restricted Free Agency) for at least eight years.During this period, the franchise has a chance to attract well-known players.A big market is beautiful, but more importantly, it’s winning.Teams like the Lakers or Knicks had to feel painful about it.
Tanking will therefore remain unavoidable as long as loses are rewarded in whatever form.The reform is a first step in the right direction, and probably the restructuring, which was to be supported by the smaller teams in particular.It’s the little toe in the cold water, it’s felt how far the league can go.At least we can assume that the last few games in April will be a little more respectable than in recent years.
It will not have been the last change at the Lottery.Another proposal that has been haunting us for years is not off the table.The Lottery wheel, a wheel that in 30 years’ time will give every team the first pick, has its supporters, but also its opponents.
This model is not the Holy Grail either, the factor of happiness would also be a constant component in this case, because there are better and weaker vintages of the draft years.And what would it mean if the Warriors won the title and then also received the first pick because it’s their turn?
nearby
Turning it around and turning it around: the draft remains a highly complex issue for which there is no absolute satisfactory solution in sight so far.The reform actually curbs the tanking a little bit, but also shifts the problems.
In two years’ time, it will not be the Phoenix Suns who let Bledsoe pause, but the Pelicans when they take Anthony Davis out with a small injury to slip up one or two places in the Draft Lottery.
The reform should be seen as a signal, not a game changer.The problems have been identified and are being proactively addressed.For changes, majorities are needed, and the 30 teams have to find a consensus.A first step has been taken.