The regular season’s mid-term mark is approaching and many teams are still struggling to realistically assess it. In his weekly column, however, SPOX editor Adrian Franke tries to bring order into the chaos. No other team has needed this more than the Cleveland Browns, and the Arizona Cardinals seem to have lost. And what’s the deal with the Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos? Also this week: an XXL Mailbag edition!
Many, many questions about the browns I had on my list for this week anyway. Questions ranged from the quarterback issue to long-term quarterback plans, Hue Jackson’s job security to Peyton Manning’s future franchise acquisition – everything was there to answer your questions. And rightly so, because what is happening at the moment with the Browns, one simply has to look at critically.
First of all, I’m a big fan of the general development Cleveland has undergone over the past few years. The radical rebuilding of the squad and the large-scale use of draft picks was and is the most promising way to finally make a turnaround. But there is one thing Cleveland still hasn’t managed to do, and that’s very important: the quarterback problem.
This starts with the evaluation of the quarterbacks, especially when you see a Carson Wentz or notice the big effect Deshaun Watson has on the Texans Offense. The central problem, however, is currently dealing with your own quarterbacks. Head coach Hue Jackson opted for DeShone Kizer before the season, where everyone who saw the college tape knew he was still very raw, needed a lot of time and would make many mistakes in early NFL appearances.
That’s what happened, Jackson brought Kevin Hogan back to Kizer after a desperate appearance and replaced him by Cody Kessler at halftime against Tennessee, who should have started from the beginning after a surprising pre-season. Jackson has now created a quarterback space full of question marks and uncertainty, while he has made it quite clear to the outside world that he is coaching for his job and that he is concerned with winning now rather than advancing for the future. Without Joe Thomas – whoever is a quarterback, Jackson didn’t want to commit himself surprisingly at the beginning of the week – this will be a lot harder.
Jackson was originally taken because he had a reputation for handling quarterbacks especially well and was also an experienced offensive coordinator with roots in the Run Game to take the offense to the next level. At the moment it can be said that the offense has taken at least one step backwards, that the run game is a huge construction site despite the investments in the offensive line and that the quarterback situation is a disaster. A radical change like the one in Cleveland takes time, but progress should still be visible. Jackson and the offense don’t do that.
But at least one positive point should be mentioned: the defence had its best seasonal game against Tennessee and has made visible progress over the past few weeks. Here, the Brown’s actually have a core of players to build on. Next construction site: the Secondary.
The title could be the same: The Dolphins already have a quarterback debate. Of course, it would be too easy to fix the problems to Jay Cutler. The biggest problem is and remains the bad run-blocking. Miami is aggressively focused on dominating the Run Game games with Jay Ajayi. This has worked far too seldom so far this season.
Ajayi stands at 3.5 yards per run and it’s no coincidence that Miami’s best games of the season – winning the Chargers and Falcons – were also Ajayi’s best games. In addition, there are incredibly conservative game plans and conservative play calling, you get the impression that Adam Gase doesn’t trust his own players very much. At the same time, however, it is also true that Cutler plays badly.
The quarterback question does not arise immediately, Cutler will be dropped for the time being due to his rib injury. The injury came in Cutler’s best game for Miami so far, but Matt Moore could still be the better choice right now. Moore promptly provided more aggressiveness in the passing game, just as he is known for it: for example with the 28-yard touchdown to Kenny Stills against an All-Out-Blitz, with the 29-Yarder to Landry, with the 22-Yarder to Fasano or with the 21-Yarder to Caroo. Moore plays with the risk appetite that Cutler has been accused of for years.
Gases believes in Cutler and knows him well, which makes the situation even more exciting. As long as the run game doesn’t work constantly, Miami needs more big plays from his own passing game. And if we take the current tape as a basis, it’s more likely to be Moore than Cutler.
The fact that the victory against Tampa was no more than a short flash in the pan from Cardinal’s point of view, probably became clear to everyone with the shut-out bankruptcy against the Rams. Arizona may well be able to stand with only one victory, too many gaps in the squad. This starts with the still unclear second cornerback spot, while the Defensive Line continues to create too little interior pressure. The third-down defense is a catastrophe this year, not least because – once again clearly against the Rams – the defense plays much more (soft-)zone coverage and this passivity is detrimental.
The problems in the offensive line are well known, but the receiving corps outside of Larry Fitzgerald are also inconsistent and the running back corps remains a bag of wonders. Palmer is now out of work for about eight weeks, which could mean the end of the season ahead of schedule. It’s possible that this is now also true for David Johnson – one can assume that Arizona has long since left the playoff race until Johnson is fit again. Because one thing is clear: with Drew Stanton, this team will no longer tear anything away.
That of course brings other names into play. Colin Kaepernick, for example, was twittering several times in the hours after the game against the Rams. I understand the demands and of course Arizona could throw him in for a few games. But the team would have nothing to gain here, and this completely independent of the protest disputes. From a purely sporting point of view: Arizona’s offense is stylistically as far removed from Kaepernick’s qualities as one can imagine.
Constantly complex full-field reads, a pure pocket-pass opener that loads a lot of weight onto the quarterback’s shoulders even for NFL conditions in the pass game, and an offshoot that requires high accuracy for medium and deep passes. None of them belong to Kaepernick’s (or Blaine Gabberts, to mention that) core competencies.
Arizona is facing a radical change. Palmer and Fitzgerald can still play on a good level, the question will be whether they want to continue. Just like Bruce Arians. Since the great 2015 season, Cardinals have tried again and again to close some construction sites with older players in order to make the leap back again. This has failed. In the coming draft, the focus must finally be on the quarterback of the future.
Page 1: Cardinals and Browns on the Ground – QB Debate in Miami
Page 2: Atlanta, Hundley, Denver, Chiefs, Lynch – the XXL Mailbag