The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) are the team that may well have lagged far behind expectations so far, with no major injury concerns from their star players. The failure seems to be supported by every level of the team. The franchise is in a problematic situation and has been longing for a playoff for eleven years. However, this will probably continue to be a long time coming.
After Week 9 of last season, the Bucs had a balance of 3-5. This was followed by a U-turn, which one could not have imagined. Tampa won seven of the last nine games of the season and was the best defender of the league in that period. The playoffs were a hair’s breadth of failure.
After the first season’s end with a positive result since 2010, the team finally seemed to have created a basis on which football matches can be won on a regular basis. Quarterback Jameis Winston is the first in the history of the league, who threw in his first two years for over 4000 yards each, and also the sought-after coaching staff remained loyal to the pirate ship in the context of a promising off-season.
In the same off-season, Managing Director Jason Licht of the already talented offense was able to win Speedster-Wideout DeSean Jackson, Erstrundenpick O. J. Add Howard (Tight End) and Wide Receiver Chris Godwin. The documentary series “Hard Knocks” did not abort the hype, but provided additional attention.
Only two months later, however, Tampa Bay fights for his last playoff chance at the mid-term mark of the season. With the Bucs it goes wrong at all corners and ends!
If you look at the statistics, the Buccaneers-Offense stands with 295.4 passing yards per game in second place behind the New England Patriots. When it comes to total yards, the team ranks fourth with 376.6 points. Figures that look good, but have the bland taste of having been supported by desperate chases to catch up in the second half.
Catch-up chases in which the opponent focused on defending touchdowns rather than first downs. Catching-up chases that forced Head Coach Dirk Koetter to have the ball thrown and not run. Tampas Rushing Offense is the fourth worst in the league with 81.1 yards per game. The bucs are too often lagging behind. The most recent example was not long ago.
Sunday, 29. October: Buccaneers vs. Panthers, Opening Drive:
For the fourth time in the last five games the Bucs puntte the ball in their first drive to the opposing team.
And this was an explosive offense compared to last year’s Falcon Open. An offense that has scored nine first-possession touchdowns in the past season. The bucs, on the other hand, do not have a single account. A problem that is not new in Koetter’s regime. Since taking over playcalling in 2015 (first as Offensive Coordinator, then as Head Coach), the Bucs have achieved three opening drive touchdowns. Worst score in the league.
Why is this so important? Coaches, including cousins, preach the relevance of good starts – for one simple reason: teams scoring early win more often. Especially when they achieve touchdowns.
According to the Pro Football Reference, since 2015, those teams that have scored a touchdown in their opening drive have won more than twice as many times as they lost (183 victories/89 defeats, 67.2 percent). The advantage of a field goal is not quite so serious, but it still exists (105/90.53.8 percent). Teams that scored the ball on their first possession lost more often (277/356.43.8 percent). To be more precise, about four times as often as teams that scored six points on the scoreboard.
We will remain briefly in the statistical area. Carolina did not score well in the last game, but went into the second quarter with a lead. A scenario that is even more difficult to catch up on: teams that have led since 2015 after 15 minutes of play have won just over three quarters of the games. The Bucs have traveled four times this season after the first quarter. They’ve lost four times.
As mentioned above, teams with a backlog become predictable and prone to mistakes. The Bucs only made a turnover this year during the first quarter, but in the following quarters there were twelve – divided maximum values.
Why is a team with such a talented offense in such difficulty? A Heisman Trophy winner as a quarterback in his third year in the NFL, who is playing in the same offensive scheme for the third year. In addition, the offense has remained relatively healthy so far. Is it perhaps the variety of options Winston has?
Does Jameis have a hard time making decisions because he is afraid of hurting the feelings of a player who doesn’t get the ball? Last year Winston’s options were Mike Evans, Tight End Cameron Roast and Back Jacquizz Rodgers. Now Martin is back, Howard and Jackson are new and receivers like Adam Humphries and Rookie Godwin are also seeing Snaps. Besides Martin, Koetter also wants to put the ball in the hands of Rodgers and Charles Sims.
Maybe the playbook has become too thick. The offense is capable of doing great things, but often one wants to do too much before the foundation is created. The question,”How can we score six points from here?”is better asked than “how do we get from here to a third-and-short situation?”. In First and Ten or Second and Long, each route seems to go down the field over at least ten yards. Drag, Crossing and Level Routes are not enough.
Koetter is talking about establishing a 50-50-Offense from passport and running tests. In the first quarter – if the game can’t be lost yet – you’ll fit 56 times with 36 attempts to run. Even in the case of third-and-short situations, there were 26 pass attempts and only eight running attempts. The Bucs are a unique pass-first team and the opponents are prepared for it.
Page 1: Starting problems, the offensive oversupply and the stat lie
Page 2: Winston’s performance fluctuations, Big Plays and the kicker debacle