Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season ends with the Monday Night Game between the Seattle Seahawks (6-3) and the Atlanta Falcons (5-4), the new edition of a divisional playoff game from the pre-season. Both sides will lack key players, but who will be more hurt? In the Coin Toss, mySpox user JaydoggBO and SPOX editor Marcus Blumberg discuss. The game will be shown live on Tuesday night from 2.30 a. m. on DAZN!
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) – Atlanta Falcons (5-4) (Tue, 2:30 a. m. live on DAZN)
mySpox-User JaydoggBO: It is the rematch of last year’s Divisional Round, but this time it is played in Seattle. The Seahawks still lacked Earl Thomas in the playoffs. This time, however, Free Safety is back on board. But the Seahawks lack Cornerback Richard Sherman and Strong Safety Kam Chancellor.
If you’ve had to replace Kam more often in the last few seasons, it’s the first game Sherman will miss in his NFL career. This will bring Rookie Shaq Griffin even more into focus. However, Griffin’s job so far has been very tidy and allows for a catch rate of only 45.7 percent in press coverage – the second-best value of all rookie cornerbacks.
But this time the task will be called Julio Jones and the Falcons will often look for this matchup. It’s not unlikely that Earl Thomas will often be near this matchup.
So far Pass Defense was once again one of the best in the league. However, it will be exciting how this will look without Sherman and Chancellor. But also the Falcons-Offense has to register a considerable loss with Devonta Freeman. This will hit the Falcons in both Run Game and Pass Game.
Tevin Coleman will start instead of his and will have to deal very often with linebacker Bobby Wagner. Wagner plays again a very good season and is seen as one of the best defenders this year. After Pro Football Focus he is listed in Run Stop Percentage, Pass Rush Productivity and Yards allowed per Coverage Snap in the Top 5 and is the best linebacker of the season.
On the offensive, however, Seattle is threatened with the failure of Left Tackle Duane Brown, who was recently taken by Houston Texans via trade. Should Brown actually have to pass, this would be an enormous weakening of passport protection and it would not be unlikely that Adrian Clayborn would collect more bags again.
The receivers will depend on Doug Baldwin and Pauk Richardson. If Baldwin is placed outside the slot, he will face Desmond Trufant and give Richardson the opportunity to play against second Cornerback Robert Alford. Here the Falcons are particularly vulnerable.
According to FootballOutsiders, the Falcons allow a DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average) of 43.2 percent against the second wide receiver and are thus ranked 30th in this category.
If Baldwin is in the slot, he will meet Brian Poole, who will give 1.38 yards per coverage snap. Only seven nickelbacks give more.
Marcus Blumberg (SPOX): The Falcons won the NFC Divisional Game against the Seattle Seahawks last January 36:20. Matt Ryan stood out with over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Since then some time has passed and especially the Falcons went through a difficult phase with numerous bankruptcies. But last Sunday, with their clear success over the Dallas Cowboys, they set an exclamation mark in all respects.
Looking ahead at the encounter against the Seahawks, there are some parallels to the previous week. Like the cowboys, the seahawks are now threatened by the aforementioned failure of the left tackles. Without Tyron Smith, the Falcons manage eight sacks against the mobile quarterback Dak Prescott. Now Brown is threatening to go out, so Russell Wilson, who is also very good on foot, is now likely to shake.
The Falcons’ defenses have so far proved to be more capable of defending against the pass than the run, but the seahawks have also rarely managed to establish a reasonable running game this year. Wilson had to do everything alone too often. So that also benefits the Falcons.
But what’s playing the Falcons first is of course the failure of Sherman. And Chancellor will also be sorely missed, because Thomas cannot plug all the holes in the ruins of the Legion of Boom alone.
Without Sherman the question of single coverage against Julio Jones does not arise. Seattle can’t get around Safety-Help, which takes Rookie Delano Hill or Thomas himself out of the middle. Means: Mohamed Sanu on the other side as well as Austin Hooper over the middle should have advantages against the man. And let’s not forget Taylor Gabriel in the slot.
Meanwhile, the focus is not only on Clayborn. Let’s not forget that with Luke Joeckel, an important guard will be missing in the Seahawks’ offensive line! Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett could well become an important factor and have a clear path through the middle!
As far as the pass rush of the seahawks is concerned, the Falcons confidently enter the game. Against the cowboys last week Alex Mack, Jake Matthews and Co. which is to just get one sack. And if Matt Ryan gets the time, he can dismantle any defense.
Ryan, on the other hand, comes to Washington with a tailwind as he has just broken through the 40,000-yard barrier as the youngest quarterback ever:”I was lucky to play here with a large number of great players over the next ten years. I was also lucky to be part of some really good teams and stay healthy. I’m proud of it. I hope there’s another 40,000 in there and I can play for a very long time.”
First of all, however, the aim is to keep the NFC South’s gap to the top as small as possible, since the Panthers and Saints are to be kept within striking distance. The Seahawks, however, don’t have that kind of pressure, as they are only half a game behind the rams in the West Division.