Week 14 ends in South Beach: The Miami Dolphins (5-7), in theory still with playoff outside chances, receive the New England Patriots (10-2). For the Pats, it’s kind of the appetizer for the main course next week when it’s against the Steelers – a slip-up is still forbidden. And there were always those for New England in Miami in the past! In the Coin Toss Dolphins fan DanMarinoseinSohn discusses with SPOX editor Adrian Franke, the game will be shown live on DAZN from 2.30 a. m.!
Miami Dolphins (5-7) – New England Patriots (10-2) (Tue, 2.30 am live on DAZN)
mySPOX-User DanMarinoseinSohn: The Dolphins don’t win any games in the Primetime, you can hear that again and again. And it’s true. At least a little bit. Almost exactly one year ago, Miami won Saturday night in New York against the jets and took a huge step towards playoffs. Since 2015, however, this has been the only primetime victory on seven occasions. All three games of the season were lost; away against the Panthers and Ravens it was defeats. Only in the home game against the Raiders was it possible to tighten up the game. But now it is against the patriots to put an end to this series.
Only two weeks ago they met in Boston and the result looked clearer than the game was. The pass rush worked and Tom Brady got a lot of cash, got intercepted once, the center messed up a snap that led to a fumble return TD. Despite all the hectic pace in his pocket, Brady led four long drives of the Patriots to just as many touchdowns. In addition, Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead dismantled the defense with 162 yards on the ground.
But there is hope: A fumble-return TD, a pick six, three more interceptions, a safety: that’s the yield of the defense from the last two games. Against Denver, the Defense did not allow a single touchdown. A foundation on which to build. And above all, it was the merit of Bobby McCain, who has been playing very well in the last few weeks and who, in his first leg against the patriots, first took the interception and then flew off the field.
Against the Broncos the Nickelcorner played probably the strongest game of his career. One sack, two tackle for loss, and three defended passes (one of them led to the T. J. interception. McDonald). The special teams also made it easy for the Dolphins. Eight Broncos drives started within their own 20, five of them within their own 11-yard line. It will be essential to give the patriots a long field as often as possible and force Brady back into a hectic pocket.
Whether Jay Cutler or Matt Moore, however, both quarterbacks caused fatal turnovers with sometimes cruel decisions this season. Especially painful are the interceptions within the opposing 20. Already three passes intercepted enemy defenses in the end zone. There was also a lost fumble in each of the last three games. With a turnover differential of -10, you only leave the Browns and Broncos behind you. After just twelve games, you have as many giveaways as in the entire past season (23).
In addition, in the second year under Adam Gase there is also a frightening balance with 3rd downs. Only 33.1 percent of the third attempts can be successfully carried out. It is rarely possible to hold the ball and play the opponent’s defensive tirelessly, regardless of the quarterback or the third starting running back of the season. Nevertheless, you should keep an eye on Kenyan Drake in the game, who is in a league with Kareem Hunt and Jordan Howard with three runs of at least 40 yards and 65 carries in a league with Kareem Hunt and Jordan Howard and who looked very good against Denver.
Miami needs a perfect evening to put the patriots in serious trouble. If the special teams deliver, dominate the defence and avoid their own offense turnovers, then you have a chance to show the public in the last primetime game of the season that the Dolphins can win when the floodlight comes on.
Adrian Franke (SPOX): There is not much to be said for Miami. New England comes to South Beach with the most dangerous passing-open of the league (8.3 yards per pass, 26 touchdown passes). On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the pass protection has stabilized at least in part, but above all the outstanding season of Tom Brady is in the foreground. Miami had some successes in the pass rush two weeks ago and caught the 40-year-old several times, that’s right. At the same time, Brady is the best quarterback against Pressure this year. So successes here are relative.
The suspension against Gronkowski is painful, but the Pats are likely to get Chris Hogan (shouldered) back, and Hogan said during the week that “As the first day of school” felt like he was finally training again. He had contracted the injury in Week 8, until then he was one of the few skill position players who had played at least 90 percent of the offensive snaps.
Without Hogan, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels often simply didn’t have the means to announce 4-receiver sets – with Hogan and without Gronkowski, the chance to change the game plan to a few 10- and 20-personnel games.
20-personnel-Plays – two running backs and no tight end – open the door for serious matchup problems for the Dolphins. Like James White, Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are versatile matchup weapons. Brady shouldn’t think twice if he finds one of his dangerous running backs under cover against the vulnerable Dolphins linebackers. And by the way, New England’s Run Game (4.2 yards per run) is one of the more efficient in the league.
And defensive? Yes, the Dolphins probably have the best chance of their own offense success in their own Run Game. However, the pats’ season statistics are cautious: New England has risen noticeably against the run and will have no problem with Miami playing the box more aggressively than they would against other quarterbacks.
This is also due to the fact that New England’s secondary has improved significantly over the past few weeks. This was especially true of Stephon Gilmore, whose duel with DeVante Parker was supposed to be in favor of the Patriots. The biggest individual threat to the patriots probably comes from Jarvis Landry: Miami’s slot receiver was an offensive focus in the game two weeks ago, and New England is likely to once again choose the matchup with Jonathan Jones against him.
Even if the Dolphins have the upper hand here: Landry is not enough to keep up in a shootout, where New England’s offensive against Miami’s defense without Gronk if necessary. It is more likely that Miami with Drake and Landry between the 20-yard lines will be successful – but in the Red Zone the patriots will be able to tighten the loop.