Welcome to Above the Break – the SPOX opinion on the NBA season! Twice a month, SPOX editor Ole Frerks scrutinizes a league issue closely. This time’s topic: Lonzo Ball. User questions are also answered.
Next night, Kobe Bryant’s jersey will be pulled under the ceiling in the Staples Center – or the jerseys. Both #8 and #24 are retired, understandably: No other Laker with one of these numbers would be taken seriously anyway. And the franchise was thus able to avoid having to choose a version of their favourite son as “the better”.
The evening will be Kobe’s. Already at the weekend, the Warriors who are guests at night were asked what they miss about Kobe or what they associate with him – because of course every player of the current generation has some connection to Bryant, whether in spirit, through duels or conversations, where the advice of one of the greatest NBA personalities in history was sought.
For the first time ever this season, a Lakers game will focus on someone who is not called Lonzo Ball. Finally, you want to scream out of the window with a raised megaphone.
First of all: It is legitimate to report a lot of reports about a No. 2 pick, and also that expectations are correspondingly high. But Ball’s reporting and discussion has long since taken on completely ridiculous proportions.
Of course, I am aware of what that is. It is also impossible to overlook LaVar Ball – and I tried. The man talks more crap than Chris Tucker in “Friday” and is unfortunately not half as funny. Basically, it works like a kind of Donald Trump of basketball. It was only fitting that the two of them got together in the “China affair”. His constant criticism of coach Luke Walton has also been a thorn in the side of the Lakers for a long time, even though LaVar has already rowed back a little here.
The argument that he is only doing everything in the interest of his children is not really valid any more, since he completed the high school education of his youngest son LaMelo (apparently on his own) in order to send him to Lithuania with his middle brother LiAngelo to play professionally with a team whose coach doesn’t even speak English.
As I said, I am aware of all this. And that’s all I want to say about LaVar – God knows enough energy has already been wasted on it. I would rather try to separate the player Lonzo from his family and the “Big Baller Brand”. I want to investigate how ball – apart from hype and malice – actually really strikes itself. Because, as is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere in between.
Let us first look at the negative, especially since it is striking. The fact that Ball’s throw is strange to look at was already known in college times, but in contrast to that Lonzo doesn’t meet him at the moment, so really not at all. The Point Guard sinks an alarming 33.2 percent of his throws, 26.5 percent of his threes and Shaq-like 48.6 percent of the free-throw line.
Ball himself has admitted that he is thinking way too much, and you can see that in many games. The lack of confidence in the litter hinders everything else, especially the drive. Ball rarely pulls to the basket as he doesn’t want to reach the free-throw line (only 1.4 FTA per game), especially as he is not the most explosive player. At the moment, each opponent against him sinks a long way, and he can’t punish it.
As a 33.3-minute lead-ball handler on the field, the ball draws as many free throws per 100 balls as Luke Babbitt or Semi Ojeleye (1.9), who receive the ball in their teams only in an emergency. This is one aspect of his game that he needs to improve. Of all rotation players who watch at least 15 minutes per game, Paul Zipser and Michael Carter-Williams have so far this season had a worse true shooting percentage than he (40.1).
Ball’s scoring difficulties are alarming and his hesitancy is often problematic for the Lakers, even though he has shown in a few games that there is another way. If Lonzo is aggressively looking for his own degree, he is another player.
This should give cause for hope, even though it has been an absolute exception so far. In 13 of his 27 games so far, Ball did not win a single free-throw. He only cracked the 20-point mark once, in his second game, against the then openly revolting and possibly drunk Suns.
And yet it’s nonsense to seal ball already now to China (or Lithuania) or to just stamp it as a bust. Because while the ugly litter is blatant, on the other hand, some strengths are clearly visible. Ball is very versatile, which has not only been proven by his two triple doubles so far.
The large Point Guard uses its length of 1.98 m for the rebound, 6.9 boards are a top score for a guard and are only beaten by Simmons and the Big Men Lauri Markkanen and John Collins for the rookies. This strength comes into its own when the ball hits the back and then immediately plays an outlet pass over the entire field a la Kevin Love – a regularly successful play with the Lakers this season.
In general, his passing game is already very mature – especially when he can make the game fast. In the semi-field, it may well be his downfall that his opponents sink so far, but he already brings a very good 7.1 points to the man. Its Assist/turnover rate of 2.69 is also the best among all rookies and, for example, almost twice as good as that of the celebrated newcomer Dennis Smith.
The good pass game had been announced in advance, but the defence was not. Here, however, Ball cuts a much better figure than expected. Thanks to its length, it is quite reliable enough to stay ahead of the faster guards, and it holds its own in the mail.
With 0.9 blocks, he is currently one of the best rookies in this category, and ranks second behind Simmons in the Steals category. All in all, opponents lose 2.8 percent less when defended by Ball – a surprising development. Like the fact that the Lakers, with a defensive rating of 103.3, are currently a top 10 defender.
It is not yet possible to judge whether Ball will become a star – the problem with the throw is too big. It just depends too much on it, also because a good throw would emphasize the other facets of his game even more. He must at least lift the quotas to an acceptable level in order to be able to have a positive impact on his team in the long term. Nor must he be afraid to walk on the line.
The point, however, is that you can certainly give him a moment to work on himself. There are 27 games played. Not every rookie can strike like Simmons or (one or two levels below) Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell, not every newcomer who has problems at the beginning is Hasheem Thabeet. And in view of the strengths it has shown so far, it can be said that Ball is likely to play a role in the NBA for a long time to come.
It is not yet possible to say how exactly they will look like. Maybe Ball will become a kind of Ricky Rubio (which isn’t bad!) and not the new LeBron or “the biggest Laker of all time”.
It would, however, be desirable for him to be allowed to go his own way – and for him to be judged by his actual performance in the future. Not in the fuss his father’s giving away.
Page 1: Lonzo Ball under the microscope
Page 2: LeBron’s Future, Matthews, Noah and the Grizzlies – the Reader’s Questions