The Regular Season turns into the home straight, just in time for the end of the calendar year the season finale is coming! There are still some playoff places open, but for many teams Week 17 is all about honour. SPOX looks at the teams that are already out of the race. Today: The Dallas Cowboys, the Detroit Lions, the Oakland Raiders and the Miami Dolphins – four pre-season playoff teams.
Disclaimer: As in the past season, SPOX is conducting a fault analysis for the teams that have arithmetically dropped out of the playoff race – including a look into the future.
Part I: Bears, Broncos, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts, 49ers, Giants and Browns
Part II: Packers, Redskins, Cardinals, Jets and Bengals
What went wrong? Here you have to go back to last August when a knee injury ended the season for quarterback Ryan Tannehill before she even started. The engagement of Jay Cutler, who already knew Head Coach Gases and his offense at least in parts, was not a bad emergency solution in view of the circumstances – however, it could only have worked if the Run Game, the real identity of the Dolphins in the pre-season, could have carried the team again.
In 2017, there was no sign of it at all. Miami’s offensive line took several steps back in the run-blocking and belonged to the league’s bottom set. Gases did not trust his offensive line, resulting in extremely conservative game plans and a completely harmless offense. The loss of their own offensive identity also paved the way for Jay Ajayi’s trade, while Cutler and Matt Moore could hardly contribute anything countable during his forced break due to injury.
And defensive? At times the run defense was ailing, and occasionally the pass rush was problematic. The common denominator: The linebacker corps is and remains a problem in South Beach.
What remains this season? The Dolphins can finally destroy Buffalo’s playoff dreams with a win on Sunday and prolong the infamous play-off thirst of the division rival.
Apart from that, there is still some hope for the future, Cornerback Xavien Howard has provided just as much optimism as Kenyan Drake. After Ajayi was gone, Drake increasingly took on a leading role and his versatility gave Miami’s offense more depth and flexibility.
But it also remains the realization that Miami has hardly any sensible building blocks for the future. Cam Wake had a very good season, but will be 36 years old at the start of the 2018 season. With all the quality Ndamukong Suh undoubtedly has to offer, Miami will think about contractual restructuring: Suh will charge the cap with 26.1 and 28.1 million dollars over the next two years.
In the passing game, Gases will also have to show more courage and creativity in the future, short passes to Jarvis Landry are the only real constant.
What’s the next step? There will be no radical change in Miami, at least not as far as the coaching staff is concerned. However, the squad urgently needs improvement in many areas: linebacker, tight end – which can actually play a prominent role in Adam Gase’s offense – and offensive linemen are high on the list of priorities. If there is no agreement with Jarvis Landry, Miami reportedly would use the Franchise Day or at least the Transition Day for the receiver.
And innovations are also conceivable in the quarterback position. Tannehill is the clear starter at first, but also returns after a long break from injury and turns 30 in the summer. Cutler is gone, nobody doubts that, and Matt Moore’s (terminating) stay is anything but guaranteed.
What went wrong? Apart from serious and long term injuries, pretty much everything you can imagine: The raiders experienced the expected regression after showing an unusually tight point differential and an unusually high turnover ratio in the pre-season. On the other hand, the coaches did not succeed in transferring the potential of the squad to the pitch.
On the one hand, this was due to individually very bad performances of actual columns like Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree or Amari Cooper, where the raiders have to hope that this season really was a slip-up and not a trend. On the other hand, it was also due to the scheme and play calling: Although the line was still more than solid and the passing game was both one-dimensional and extremely fragile, the coaches didn’t really put a lot of emphasis on the run – 23.1 runs per game, only Detroit and Miami had less.
In the off-season, the supposedly decisive screws were turned around: a matchup tight end in Jared Cook, a dynamic returner with Cordarrelle Patterson, and of course the “homecomer” Marshawn Lynch as a hammer for an offense that lacked this element in 2016. This season has shown that Carr in particular needs more help from the scheme and play calling.
What remains this season? Important findings, you can safely save the Raiders season 2017 under “instructive experiences”. The offense has to be more adapted to Carr and needs more answers to simple defensive counter-tactics. Among other things, a better use of the play-action game wouldn’t hurt.
The defensive start of the season was devastating, and the exchange of coordinators has already worked miracles: under Pagano, the pressure concepts are much more efficient, the edge-ruzers are much more effective, and coverage has promptly increased over the past few weeks. The rookies Gareon Conley and Obi Melinfonwu were hardly used in their first NFL season due to injury, so the Secondary should have a different face in 2018.
Finally, there is the role of the spoilsporter: with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Oakland would bury all the division rival’s playoff dreams.
What’s the next step? The outlook for the raiders is quite controversial, because apart from the obvious, sporty coaching weaknesses during the season, there is also said to have been some discrepancies behind the scenes. A new offensive coordinator seems almost guaranteed, the question is: Is there a complete replacement of the coaching staff?
No matter in which direction, the top priority must be to make the offense significantly more innovative. Here another open aspect: Does Marshawn Lynch continue or does he need a new Running Back immediately? In 2017 Lynch was again one of the best running backs in terms of yards after contact with opponents, the combination with the line works. In the medium term, however, Oakland will have to reposition itself here in one way or another.
Page 1: The Miami Dolphins and the Oakland Raiders
Page 2: The Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions