The Regular Season 2017 is history and the focus is finally on the playoffs – at least for twelve teams. Elsewhere, there is already a lot of work being done on the future, and a total of six teams are looking for a new head coach. In his weekly column, SPOX editor Adrian Franke highlights the ideal solution for all six vacant head coach posts and gives his assessment of the wildcard games. Plus: A packed mailbag with Patrick Mahomes, Seattle Seahawks, Jon Gruden and much more!
Key Matchup: Tennessee’s Secondary against Alex Smith
In plain language: The Titans are in the playoffs and have won enough and the right games. But for me, Tennessee is just a playoff team on paper. Too bad is the offensive coaching in almost every respect, too inconsistently the run game, which is why Mariota has big problems. And the passport defense is too vulnerable. Tennessees great strength this season is the run defense, against the pass the Titans have huge problems. Her DVOA rank 24 against the pass confirms the impressions here.
On the other hand, Kansas City has regained momentum on time for the season’s final spurt. A strong use of Run-Pass-Options opens up paths in the Run Game and Alex Smith has at least found his aggressiveness in the situation. This is especially true when Tyreek Hill has one-on-one situations.
Tennessee will not win this game if KC has a 2-score lead this season, although the Chiefs Defense has been at times boring. However, the Titans team is not aggressively built for this and has far too many shortcomings in the scheme alone. If Pass-Defense doesn’t deliver its best seasonal game, it will be a bit of a fun playoff for Tennessee.
Key matchup: Bortles against Buffalo’s Defense
There is certainly not much to be said for the Bills, all the more so as LeSean McCoy is beaten. On top of that, Jacksonville has shown clear upward tendencies against the run in the regular-season finale in Tennessee, after the defensive side’s undisciplined and undisciplined approach to the run. And this much is clear: In the passing game, the Bills will not win this match, Buffalo’s passing-open against the pass defense of the Jags is the biggest mismatch on the wildcard weekend.
But there is a glimmer of hope, and that’s Blake Bortles. After good to very good performances against Indy, Seattle and Houston, where he suddenly showed technical progress, there was again a noticeable regression at the regular-season conclusion against San Francisco and Tennessee. Bortles again has more problems in the pocket, throwing desolate passes in double coverage or over the middle too short or in the back of his receivers.
Buffalo’s Zone-Defense is extremely dangerous for such quarterbacks. The Bills are not only individually very well staffed in the Secondary, the scheme also helps to “find” and catch a bad throw in such situations. Not for nothing did only five teams have more interceptions than the Bills (18). This is the best chance for Buffalo to beat Jacksonville.
Key matchup: Atlantas Running Backs against the Rams-line bakers
Was it a trend reversal or was it coincidence? Devonta Freeman did not have more than five receptions in any of the games this season – up to the regular-season final against Carolina: there were no less than nine, two more recorded running-back colleagues Tevin Coleman.
Under Kyle Shanahan, the role of the running backs in the Passing Game was an elementary part of the offense, his successor Steve Sarkisian has so far successfully resisted it. Against the Rams, a continuation of this trend would have two positive aspects: Aaron Donald’s pass rush could be better eliminated and the Rams linebackers could be attacked in coverage – a matchup called L. A. and that can help the Falcons to keep up in a possible (and not unlikely) shootout.
Key matchup: Carolina’s linebacker against the screen game
New Orleans have had some more bumpy games in recent weeks, but the core of this team is still clear: the use of running backs as runners and receivers. No team has a better designed screen game than the Saints, New Orleans plays great with play action and different formations to put defenses under pressure.
In particular, there is a trend that you can see more often in the NFL: The use of fullback as a matchup player. What this means is that the offense comes into the field with a running back and a fullback, which forces the defense in most cases into its base-coverage (instead of replacing linebackers or D-liners with defensive backs). If an offense then – Kyle Shanahan is a master in this – and the patriots use it more and more this year – can set up the fullback as a receiver via pre-snap motion and thus switch from an I- to a spread formation, the huge stress on the defense exerts.
The Panthers have the best cover linebacker in the NFL in Luke Kuechly, but with the Saints’ Screen Game and their creative use of the running backs, a real test is now waiting for them. All the more so, as New Orleans has perhaps the best offensive line of the season and the aggressive lightning packs of the Panthers are less heavy.
On the other side of the ball it’s clear: Carolina has to get his standard run game (without Cam Newton) rolling. The Panthers are too harmless in the Passing Game and if the offense depends on Newton’s runs alone, Carolina won’t be able to keep up with the Saints Offense.
Page 1: The decisive matchups for the wildcard games
Page 2: After Black Monday: Which Head Coaches make sense where?
Page 3: Reasons, Head-Coaching-Search, Disappointments, Seahawks – your questions