For four teams, the adventure of playoffs is over after the wild card round. The Kansas City Chiefs wonder whether they are doomed to failure in the playoffs. The Bills are simply delighted with the certificate of participation. The Rams have a bright future ahead of them and the Carolina Panthers want to reorient themselves, at least in an offensive way. SPOX looks back on the seasons of the four teams and gives an initial outlook for 2018.
Disclaimer: As in the previous season, SPOX is conducting an error analysis of the teams that have been eliminated from the play-off race, either directly or numerically – including a look into the future.
Part I: Bears, Broncos, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts, 49ers, Giants and Browns
Part II: Packers, Redskins, Cardinals, Jets and Bengals
Part III: Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys and Lions
The Season 2017
Again, the Chiefs can’t live up to their own expectations and fail in January because of their nerves and play-calling. The season began so promisingly: At the 5-0 start into the year, even the later number 1 seeds of both conferences were cleared out of the way. Andy Reid and his offense around Alex Smith, Rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill knew how to excel with superbly implemented schemes that could create danger on the ground, in both short and long passes.
But just as quickly as the favourites in AFC were ascribed to the men from KC, so quickly she was gone again. The Chiefs fell out of nowhere into an inexplicable depression. The offense suddenly acted unimaginatively as Defenses adapted to the misdirection and option plays and could not compensate for the defenses, which allowed a defense that was harmless and vulnerable in the pass rush. They lost six of the next seven games and coach Reid was forced to act.
From week 13 onwards, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy took over the play-calling and the offense seemed to work again. Nagy put Hunt in the limelight again, and with victories in the last four games, AFC West finally won the match. The momentum also seemed to pass into the post-season, at least for halftime.
Because in the second half it was play calling again, which raised big question marks against the growing Tennessee. Despite the 18-point lead, they didn’t want to run the ball and made such a high comeback in a playoff game for the second time in the Andy Reid era. The historic playoff problems continued despite an overall pleasing season. Smith also stated after the bankruptcy that the result of the season did not live up to his own expectations.
What are the problems?
There are lots of building sites on the defensive side. Throughout the whole season they were looking for much needed support on the cornerback position. The commitment of Darrelle Revis could not bring the expected relief. However, his return is questionable. Furthermore, you have to work on the defensive line and pass rush. In both categories, one belongs to the worse third of the league.
Teams can correct and repair some things in the off-season through Free Agency and the draft, but bad memories and resulting nervous weaknesses are very difficult. Reid is now on the Chiefs’ side with a record of 1-4 in postseason games.
After the collapse of the playoffs in 2013, when the Colts were beaten by a 38-10 lead from the third quarter, the 18-point catch-up was the second time the opponents had made their comeback at such a high level. Since 1933, this has not happened to any coach more frequently. Reid has turned a miserable chiefs team into one that regularly reaches the playoffs. Apparently, however, this is not enough for the next step.
What will happen in the future?
The first thing to do in Kansas City was to clarify the question of a new offensive coordinator after Nagy officially took up his new job in Chicago: Running Backs coach Eric Bieniemy takes over. In addition, the discussion about whether the Chiefs will go into the new season with Smith or Patrick Mahomes is likely to continue for a long time.
The rookie is the hope of the franchise, but it’s not unjustified to believe that the team is actually capable of competing with New England and Pittsburgh. Smith played what was probably the best season of his career. Switching to mahomes should mean a setback, at least in the short term.
With regard to next season’s squad planning, you also have to manage without a first-round kick in the upcoming draft, after investing it in a deal in the last draft to get Mahomes. Besides Smith, linebackers Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali could have played their last game for KC.
The Bills made their first playoff move since 1999, only to defeat an aggressively toothless Jaguars team by scoring three points. Nevertheless, the result of the season is positive: After the end of the last season, which ended with a negative result like 15 of the previous 17 years since the last playoff entry, Head Coach Rex Ryan and General Manager Doug Whaley were separated in Buffalo. A personnel turnaround should take place, which was radically implemented.
Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby and Marcell Dareus left immediately before or during the season. However, despite all expectations, they started with five victories from the first seven games. During the subsequent three-game defeat series, head coach Sean McDermott made another decision in favour of anything but a stone-chiselled squad plan.
Tyrod Taylor was put on the bench for the game against the Chargers and Rookie Nathan Peterman was preferred instead. After five interceptions in the first half of the game, Peterman forced the coach to regard the experiment as having failed for the time being. After that, however, they did manage their workable program properly and with the amount of work that was needed to remain on the winning track, if their opponent was not New England.
Nine victories put an end to the eternal waiting for the franchise. With a score ratio of -57, a devastating scoring openness and many risky personnel decisions, it came to a playoff comeback. McDermott will not be remembered positively for his change of quarterback, but for the end of a culture of losing.
The only constant in Buffalo’s offense was again this year LeSean McCoy. Apart from the run game, however, there will still be a number of personnel decisions to be expected in the Bills: one of the problem areas is certainly the quarterback position. Taylor can manage the game for the Bills and doesn’t cause any turnovers, but a development to a top-QB is not to be expected any more. It is also doubtful whether Peterman will have a great career after his failed debut.
On the offensive side, the problems on the receiver position have to be mentioned, which were partly addressed with Kelvin Benjamin at first, but have not been solved yet. Defensively, there was a lack of pass rush and quality against the run to support the very good secondary. Except for Matt Milano, the linebacker positions may all have to be replaced.
The Bills’ off-season is titled Taylor. The quarterback would burden the cap of the Bills with $18 million next year, but would be relatively cheap in the event of a dismissal following a contract change in the last season. Only 3 million dollars of dead money would be spent in this scenario. After the actions during the season, the early separation seems anything but improbable.
With 21. and 22. Pick in the first round of this year’s drafts would also be interesting for a deal with a team that would like to draw later and more frequently. Buffalo also holds extra picks in the second and fifth rounds. Another interesting personnel decision could be that of the offensive coordinator. But the decision as to whether there is a future with Rick Dennison is also at least partly related to the quarterback position.
Page 1: AFC – Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills
Page 2: NFC – Los Angeles Rams, Carolina Panthers