The Philadelphia Eagles start their playoff campaign with a duel against the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday evening. It’s already a historic pairing: For the first time in the history of the NFL, the number 1 seed from the bookmakers enters the divisional round as a home underdog. This is, of course, due to Carson Wentz’s injury and inevitably raises a question: how far can the Eagles go with Nick Foles? All playoffs will be shown live on DAZN!
Head coach Doug Pederson’s message to Nick Foles, who had ended the regular season so alarmingly weak, before the duel with Atlanta was this:”My message to Nick is:’ You have a great opportunity here. Just be yourself and play football.'” Pederson would never admit it, he couldn’t do it. But in these and similar statements, which have been heard again and again over the past few days from Philadelphia, there is one thing above all else that resonates: a good portion of nervousness.
The whole city seems to be engrossed and electrified, there is hardly any other topic in Philly for weeks. Everything is looking forward to the playoff game against Atlanta and hardly anyone knows what to expect or what kind of feeling he should have in the game. Carson Wentz’s violation has thrown the NFC playoff image into disarray, because although Philadelphia didn’t let the top seed be taken away, hardly anyone would call the Eagles the best team in the NFC playoffs.
In fact, it would be easier to turn the tables and argue that the Eagles are the worst of the four remaining NFC teams. Carson Wentz was so central to the success. Not because he would have carried a bad offense on his own, quite the contrary: Pederson and his coach’s staff have put an excellent scheme on the pitch, the offensive line belongs in the top 5 – at least. And besides Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor turned out to be a veritable weapon in the slot.
Wentz’ was the player who, on the one hand, brought all these threads together and on the other hand, demonstrated spectacular abilities when it came to expanding Plays with his athletics and improving the mistakes of the other players in this way. Above all, however, his services to Third Down were in some cases almost superhuman. Coupled with the downfield aggressiveness that led to numerous Big Plays, the Eagles Offense was the best offense in the league for much of the season.
Expecting a similar productivity of Foles would not be fair to the backup quarterback. And yet it’s a different mood that has been catching all around the Eagles for days: The offense is not being changed for Foles – and the coaches expect downfield passes from their quarterback.
“As hard as we want to get our run game up and running, we have to stay aggressive in the passing game,”said Coordinator Frank Reich,”Nick has proven over the course of his career that he is capable of doing so, and at a good level. He wants to throw the ball down the field, he has an aggressive approach. Nick is not a quarterback who prefers the short passing game.”
It became clear in the season’s final spurt that the offense with Foles will remain in their game plans and not hide the quarterback: Foles completed two games completely (at the Giants and against the Raiders), in both he threw 38 passes each. However, the tale of downfield aggressiveness that Foles allegedly brings with him could not be reaffirmed.
Foles stands at 5.3 yards per pass this season, his longest pass since he took over as a starter was a 32-yarder to Jay Ajayi – a short pass that the Running Back then carried down the field. His longest roll in his victory over Oakland was a 25-yarder, and Foles finished the game against the Raiders 0/12 in Third Down. This is a stark contrast to Wentz’s success, especially in these situations.
In four seasons to date Foles has thrown over 250 passes, with only 38.3 (2015), 51.6 (2014), 48.7 (2013) and 46.3 per cent (2012) coming from the air – the rest were yards after the catch. A realistic, aggressive value would be in the mid-fifties or even low sixties. Foles was always far from that. In his picture book season 2013 under Chip Kelly he had spectacular 9.1 yards per pass, but he benefited from a spectacular scheme with many yards after the catch.
In other words: To expect Foles to suddenly bring an aggressive offense with many long pass attempts into the field is at least a bold approach. This is all the more true, as Atlantas Defense only allows such passes in manageable numbers – the Falcons only allowed four Passing Plays over 40 yards in the regular season, only Buffalo (3) was better and Atlantas Defense is still in the top 10 for passes over 20 yards (43).
The Eagles will build their offensive game plan around the Run Game (29.6 runs per game in the Regular Season, rank 6) and have very good weapons for the slot and the general Underneath Passing Game with Ertz and Agholor. The decisive plays will most likely happen here – but Philadelphia needs the downfield game as part of the offense to keep the defense out of the pits as often as possible. Atlanta is defensive with a lot of speed on the linebacker level and a lot of quality in the secondary.
So the Eagles-Offense is awaiting a difficult test in any case, even Wentz would be the case – the strong Rams-Offense could feel it in the wildcard duel. And Foles himself knows what he has to do; at the end he was openly critical about his wire to receiver Alshon Jeffery:”I just have to give him the ball. I trust him, I’ve seen him play long enough. It’s really all about me giving him a chance – because he’s gonna do the plays. He’s a great receiver, that’s my responsibility.”
Pederson also knows that “you have to find things where Foles feels comfortable and helps his self-confidence. We need to get the run game rolling again, which will help his self-confidence. And we need to get the ball out of his hand faster in first and second down. These basics must fit again.”
If you take all these factors together – Foles’ largely weak performances in the last few weeks of the season, the problems with downfield passes and third down, the historic bookmakers’ quota, the much improved falcons defenses on the other side – you could quickly conclude that the Eagles are more or less without a chance of going into the game on Saturday evening. And that would be a mistake for a strong team.
“Everyone thinks we’re the weakest team in the playoffs, and that’s okay,”said Right Tackle Lane Johnson,”if people want to underestimate us, that’s all for me. We’ll see what happens on Saturday. We know what people are saying. What bothered me was that back then (shortly after the Wentz injury, d. ) stood at 12-2 and we were treated as if we were the Cleveland Browns. We can change people’s minds about us.”
For all the question marks that the involuntary quarterback exchange brings with it is also true: The Eagles had an elite front in the regular season and, in particular, one of the best defensive lines – possibly the best of all – in the NFL. Philly is extremely dominant here, especially against the run, but also defended the pass very well over long distances. However, mistakes are taboo here, appearances like the 34:29 against the Giants in the first game after the Wentz injury must not be allowed by the Defense in the playoffs.
In concrete terms, this means that Philadelphia must determine the game with its defensive line. Atlanta was able to score occasional run game successes against the Rams, while Matt Ryan often avoided the outstanding Aaron Donald and shone outside the pocket, leaving the defense barely open. The best chance for the Eagles to prevent a repetition of this scenario is a dominant appearance of the Defensive Line. Especially on the guard spots Atlanta is beatable, Philly should attack the guards with stunts and lightning.
The true aggressiveness in the game plan of the Eagles and especially in the implementation on the pitch can be seen on the defensive side of the ball. Philadelphia should try to get its athletic linemen on the fast but physically inferior Falcons linebacker. With LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi, the Eagles have the running backs to capitalize on – Blount was still one of the best running backs in terms of yards after opponent contact this season.
“At the end of the day, I’d rather”, admitted Lane Johnson,”if people doubt us than if they were all going to pat us on the back,” or at least the motivation will not be a problem: The mood around the team, among the fans and the Eagles-related media tipped in a different direction than the bookmakers’ quotas were announced.
The fact that the Falcons are treated as number 6 seed favourites has caused a defiant reaction among the Eagles followers, who are not exactly known for their tame temperament. The stadium will be noisy, very loud, and it will be up to Philadelphia’s Defense to capitalize on it as early as possible. Only when Nick Foles – to remain in Pederson’s appeal – is he himself really useful.