The Colorado Rockies want to confirm their previous year’s success by reaching the playoffs in 2018. A Damocles sword hangs above the team, which makes the franchise hurry.
Eleven years ago, the famous “Rocktober” was born in 2007. At the time, the Colorado Rockies, led by team legend Todd Helton and star players Matt Holliday in their heyday, and Troy Tulowitzki at the beginning of his career, were sensational at the World Series. Since then, it’s only twice as far as the 2009 (NLDS) and last year’s playoffs and the wildcard, which they lost against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In 2018, the Rockies are now facing a season of truth, so to speak. On the one hand, they have a young core of talented players, some of whom demonstrated their skills last year and played a major role in the playoff move. On the other hand, however, the exits of numerous top performers are approaching.
While All-Star-Third-Baseman Nolan Arenado will not become a Free Agent until 2020, Center Fielder and NL Batting Champion Charlie Blackmon, Second Baseman DJ LeMahieu and pitcher Adam Ottavino will be allowed to go on the open market after this season.
A LeMahieu could be replaced internally with top prospect Brendan Rodgers, whose arrival is planned for this year. But on the third base as well as in the outfield or bullpen, there are no quick internal solutions. So we have to hurry, if the current line-up is supposed to help to make the big move. The famous window of opportunity threatens to close slowly.
Accordingly, action was taken this winter. The Rockies realized that the positioners have a certain quality to be successful. In the pitching area, however, deficits were identified. And so they took real money in their hands and strengthened the Bullpen sustainably – for the guaranteed sum of 106 million dollars. For three players, of course.
The reasons for the high price and the decision to increase this part of the squad are complex. The main reason for this is that the rotation of the team in the previous year had already shown a very good level and there was no reason to invest in this area because of the consistently young starters.
In terms of positional players, a good basis had also already been laid. Only the catcher position was improved: Chris Iannetta, a friend from the good old days, came back. He was already present in Denver from 2006 to 2011. His task will now be to act as a mentor for the young pitcher.
So the focus was on the Bullpen, where a lot of good work has already been done, but the expected increase in performance due to new entrants was probably the greatest. Both Wade Davis (Cubs) and Bryan Shaw (Indians) come from playoff teams and bring a lot of experience. In addition, left-hander Jake McGee’s contract has been extended, so the final two or three innings will probably go to these three gentlemen.
Davis got three guaranteed years for $52 million. Shaw got three years and 27 million, McGee too. And all three contracts have options for another year. The high prices can be explained first of all by a current market trend, as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN recently remarked that the MLB clubs distributed 340 million dollars in guaranteed total salary for 36 relief pitcher this winter.
Last year, there were as many as 421 million for 33 players – including Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, who had signed monster contracts worth a total of 228 million dollars.
It should also be borne in mind that especially with pitchers on the Rockies’ side, additional persuasion is always needed to get them to switch to the infamous Coors Field. The thin mountain air in Denver makes the Rockies’ home ball park a very difficult and for pitcher unfriendly environment. If you want to be successful here, you have to adapt. Or even better: force ground balls in high frequency.
This, in turn, usually presupposes that appropriate pitches are thrown – fastballs of the Sinker, Splitter or 2-Seam-Fastballs variants, which, with their natural movement, cause hitters to hit the ball on the ground rather than in the air – the thin air, which helps little to prevent possible home runs. Consequently, at 60.8 percent, the Rockies threw the third-most fastballs in the entire MLB on a pro-rata basis.
Fastballs, however, have been out of fashion lately. Many teams increasingly rely on throwing off-speed pitches, as they are more difficult to beat. Fastballs are primarily a matter of timing for major league hitter. If you add movement like in breaking balls or unexpectedly slower speed a la changeup, it gets complicated.
Teams like the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers threw the least number of fastballs in last year’s league – two of these teams reached the World Series, one of them the ALCS. It was memorable how the ALCS’s Astros Game 7 won by throwing 25 Breaking Balls in a row at the end of the game, thus overthrowing the Yankees’ openers.
This is an approach that promises to be successful, but which is probably too risky for the Rockies. The problem with Breaking Balls is that mistakes in such balls usually lead to fly balls. And in the Coors Field this makes homeruns even easier than in other ball parks under normal air pressure conditions.
The pitcher who are potentially willing to join the Rockies know that too. They are accordingly reluctant to go there. After all, it is important to keep your own market value above and beyond the time in Colorado. With inflated statistics this is of course difficult. Correspondingly, more money is needed than would otherwise be demanded of the teams.
McGee, for example, who has been playing in Colorado since 2016, shows how serious Coors Field’s impact on pitcher statistics can be. At home he had a 4.73 ERA in 2017, but abroad a 2.64 ERA. Meaning: On average, he played almost twice as many runs at home as in a foreign country.
Thin air Denver does not only affect the balls. Players, and in this case pitchers, also have to worry about it:”I’ve already told the newcomer that if you’ve played several series at home in a row and you’ve been in action a couple of times, you get a little tired towards the end,”said McGee, who went on to say:”Towards June or July your legs get tired. It’ll just happen and there’s nothing you can do about it. You just adapt to it. Different pitches move differently at home than abroad. If you’ve got a flair for it, it makes things easier.”
Despite these uncertainties, McGee finally decided to renew his contract in Denver, which earned him much praise from General Manager Jeff Bridich:”Jake McGee is a testament to what is happening here. He came here by trade and had no choice but to pitch and figure out how to do this. And when he had a choice, he wanted to come back. Not only that, he also wanted to help recruit his buddy Wade Davis. I think it says a lot about what’s going on here and the faith the boys have in each other.”
The belief in their own strength will also be needed, especially in bullpen, because – and the Rockies are aware of this – relief pitcher in itself have the tendency not to be a perfect example of constancy for years to come.”Teams think that some bullpens can achieve full performance due to the uneven careers of some players,”said Rockies manager Bud Black.”There was Mariano Rivera. “But for many relievers, great years alternate with bad years.”
The risk of the Rockies taking over is correspondingly high. The goal is clear: success. And this happens as soon as possible before too much of the current core threatens to break away.
This article was published without prior view by the Major League Baseball.