In the second round of the playoffs, the best team of the regular season, the Houston Rockets, awaits Utah Jazz. Although the Jazz already prevailed against the favored Thunder in the first round, a completely different caliber awaits with the Rockets. Who will move into the Conference Finals? A view. Game 1 will be shown for free on Sunday at 9.30 pm in the LIVESTREAM on SPOX.
In the first round, despite initial difficulties, the Houston Rockets finally managed a clear 4-1 over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The offense shone only sporadically as in game 4, when the Texans conjured among other things a 50-point quarter on the parquet. With an offensive rating of 113.3, they ranked second in the entire playoffs.
However, Mike D’Antoni’s squad will have problems against the Jazz if the trio are as bad as in the first three games against Minnesota, when Houston as a team hit only 31.5 per cent of downtown. Against the Wolves the bad shooting could be made up for by efficient finishing at the basket, but now no less than defensive player of the year candidate Rudy Gobert is waiting there.
Chris Paul in particular should be particularly motivated by the fact that he has never reached the Conference Finals. Against Minnesota, CP3 was one of the few constants with an average of 19 points and 6.6 assists, but he still has plenty of room for manoeuvre (only 29.6 percent in round 1).
As a counterpart to perhaps the best offensive of the league, the Utah Jazz provide one of the best defenders of the league. During a 20-2-run between January and March, the men from the salt lake had a defensive rating of 94.5, which impressively shows what the defense can be capable of. All in all, they ranked second in the regular season with a rating of 101.6, which was also the reason why the Oklahoma City Thunder failed in round 1.
Loud City was beaten 4-2, although the decision should have been made in rack 5. However, Gobert had to get out early with foul problems, which enabled OKC to make a 25-point comeback. The Frenchman is without doubt the anchor in the jazz defense.
Besides Gobert, Donovan Mitchell stands out from the Salt Lake City team. Already in the regular season he was leading all rookies with 20.5 points per game and also against OKC he could prove his scoring qualities. With 38 points in his sixth game, he is the first rookie since Derrick Rose to score over 35 points in a play-off game.
The Rockets’ primary goal must be to get Rudy Gobert out of the zone. The Frenchman’s foul problems in game 5 against OKC clearly show how vulnerable Utah is without their center. Due to the missing shooting qualities of Clint Capela Houston will try to force with pick’n’roll switches to take advantage of the matchup Paul/Gobert or Harden/Gobert.
Coach Mike D’Antoni is known for his preference for this move anyway. This is impressively demonstrated by the first-round duel against Minnesota, when 26.1 percent of the attacks included a pick’n’roll. No other team tried this in the playoffs more often than the Rockets.
However, if the switches are missing, Small Ball could be the panacea to crack the jazz defense. With Paul, Harden, Trevor Ariza, Gerald Green and P.J. Tucker, you could send five potential three-man shooters onto the floor at the same time. Gobert would have to orientate himself out of the zone (or leave Tucker open, for example), which in turn creates space for Harden and Paul.
The basis for this, of course, must be that the trio are better than in the first three games against Minnesota. In the regular season it went well against Utah with an average of 17 successful threesomes per game. In addition to all tactical considerations, Houston also has a man named James Harden, who in the regular season with 56 points and 13 assists at 19/25 FG in an evening almost on his own.
Scores, the jazz probably won’t be consistent, so the focus must be on a disciplined defense. Especially the Pick’n’Roll defence was one of the strengths of Jazz in the regular season with only 0.80 points per possession, which could be of particular importance in the duel against the Rockets. It will also be interesting to see to what extent attempts are made to avoid the switches with Gobert. If you keep Gobert in the zone, you open rooms for the Rockets at the triple line, the other way around in the zone. So this can only work if the distance throw doesn’t fall near Houston.
The patterns of jazz in the defense remind a little of those of the Spurs, who shocked the Rockets in the playoffs in 2017. At that time, coach Gregg Popovich gave Houston the entire mid-range, Harden and Co. could not punish it. In CP3 the Rockets now have one of the best midrange shooters of all time, it will be exciting to see whether the Rockets act more variable this time.
On the offensive, Utah will once again face and fall with Rookie Donovan Mitchell’s performance. Especially because his backcourt partner Ricky Rubio had to retire in the last game against OKC with an Achilles tendon injury and the first games are probably not available. Along with Mitchell and Joe Ingles, the Spaniard is an important part of the jazz opener and played an average of 14 points and 7 assists against the Thunder.
The defense of the rockets is strongest when it doesn’t have to move much and simple switches are sufficient for defense. So the decisive factor will be whether Mitchell manages to successfully attack the basket to bring unrest into the defense. If the Rockets are forced to play Help-Defense, this creates space for the shooters waiting for the ball in the corner. With Ingles the Jazz have one of the best corner shooters, also this had already brought the Thunder into trouble.
All in all, the decisive factor will be whether the strong jazz defense is enough to tame the offensive of the Rockets. However, the regular season has already shown that the Houston Open has enough weapons to pull Gobert out of the zone and make Utah vulnerable in the defense. As long as Houston hits the trio reasonably solidly, the Jazz should have no realistic chance of winning four games. In addition, the individual class clearly speaks for the Rockets, which can make the difference in tight games. For a sweep – as in the regular season – the Rockets may be too volatile at the moment, but they won’t give jazz a real chance to progress. Forecast: Rockets in 5.