On the night of Tuesday, the Eastern Conference Semifinals will begin with the Boston Celtics vs. the Philadelphia 76ers series (Game 1: Tue, 2 o’clock live on DAZN). A team that almost walks on a stick meets what may be the most dangerous team in the entire conference. Can the Celtics Joel Embiid and Co. spoil the party?
The fact that the Celtics won more games than Philadelphia in the Regular Season is long forgotten – Boston is now competing more and more with a fuselage team. Long-term injured Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Daniel Theis supported only in spirit in round one, but the hospital is still open for new admissions.
During the battle of wear and tear against Milwaukee, Marcus Smart came back, but in Game 7 Jaylen Brown, who had previously delivered a real breakout performance in the series, was injured. Brown is in question for Game 1 against Philadelphia because his thighs continue to bother him. Brad Stevens said on Sunday that the sophomore could be replaced by Smart, Marcus Morris, Semi Ojeleye or Shane Larkin in the Starting Five.
Even against the Bucks, the Celtics were not the more talented but the more disciplined team. On the offensive, they depend heavily on the shotmaking of inexperienced players like Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum or Brown, which is why the home advantage could be as important as it was against Milwaukee – Boston have not lost at home yet and are clearly supported by the crowd there.
But one thing is clear: The Sixers are a better team than the Bucks. This was felt in round one Miami, who were surprisingly clearly beaten in only five games and also dominated towards the end of the series. Since the turn of the year, the Sixers have been one of the best teams in the league, and the lack of experience of their best players, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, doesn’t seem to be hindering them at all.
In round one Philly had the third-best offensive and third-best defensive rating, better in both categories was only Golden State. The mask wearer Embiid only came back from his orbital fracture in the third game. Especially in transition Philly cannot be defended, because Simmons makes such good decisions in his first season.
Boston’s only remaining all-star Al Horford recently acknowledged this: “We must remain as disciplined as possible against Simmons. He’s a very smart player and takes every advantage the defense gives him.” With their balanced lineup including shooters like J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli, who was on fire throughout round one, the Sixers have some of them.
In principle, it can only work if Boston multiplies the recipe against the Bucks by a factor of 5 and the Sixers get on each other’s nerves. Boston must make the game as slow and ugly as possible and forbid the Sixers to get going.
This starts with the offense, which must be disciplined enough to prevent turnovers. They did well against the Bucks: Of the still active playoff teams, only Houston had a lower turnover rate in round one. And as clumsy as it sounds, they have to hope their throws fall – the Celtics don’t have the dynamic playmakers who can create open, high-quality looks all the time, so they need contested shots from Rozier and Co. more than any other team.
The rebound duel will also be a key duel: Boston have been the strongest team in defensive rebound so far, Philly in turn took the most offensive rebounds in percentage terms. It is these hustle categories in which the Celtics can gain an advantage.
Smart will probably defend a lot against Simmons – he is much smaller than the Australian, but on the court he is the personalized pain in the ass that you can let go of almost every player type (except Embiid). And apart from Horford, the best option in one-on-one; Boston will hope that they can make Simmons the primary scorer. But if his defender always needs help and Simmons can find the open shooters, this could be a short series.
Philadelphia found his recipe in round one. Especially offensively the mix fit wonderfully and took almost Rockets-like proportions – no team went to the free-throw line more often in percentage, only three teams took more threesomes compared to their overall finishes. Which of course was mainly because Miami had no antidote to the brilliant playmaking of Simmons.
Hard to believe that the man was playing his first playoffs: Simmons was not only statistically outstanding (18.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 9 assists), but also his mental strength was impressive. Especially Heat-Forward James Johnson tried again and again to provoke Simmons with sometimes dirty fouls, but that left him completely cold. This should also be an advantage for the Sixers in the comparatively hot TD Garden.
Philly should push the pace whenever possible. In set play, Embiid is in greater demand again – Boston doesn’t have an adequate defender for a focused embiid in the post, at the latest when Aron Baynes gets foul trouble as in any game. In the Regular Season Embiid could not always prove this against Boston, partly because he relied too much on the threesome, but he dominated the fourth duel with 26 points, 16 rebounds and 6 assists. More of the same!
But you don’t have to think too complicated here: If Philly concentrates on his own strengths and continues to act as balanced as in round one, they are the clear favourites in this series.
Throughout the season, Boston has suffered injuries and yet, against all expectations, has prevailed, talent deficit or not. But against Philadelphia, the season of brave Celtics ends. Philly is too rhythmic and simply much better prepared to punish the weaknesses of the Hull Celtics than the chaotic Bucks – and even against them Boston needed seven games. In Boston, the Celtics will get at least one game, but that’s probably all they can do. The path “Prophet” Embiid predicted for his team before the play-off at Instagram continues for the time being. Forecast: Sixers in 5.