As last year, the Cleveland Cavaliers will face the Toronto Raptors in the second play-off round – but this time under different conditions. This time the Canadians enjoy the home advantage. Can they use this and possibly end the era of LeBron James with the Cavs?
Surprisingly, both teams had some problems with their matchups in the first round. Toronto traditionally struggled in the playoffs, but after a convincing regular season and a 2-0 series lead against the Washington Wizards, many thought it was a relaxed affair for the Canadians. However, the eight seeded wizards came back to open the series, but in the last two games the capitol players broke in late and Toronto grabbed the ticket for the next round in six games.
Especially in the closeout game the Raptors in D.C. proved what had distinguished them in the Regular Season – namely the unbelievable squad width. DeMar DeRozan, who scored his first off-night (16 points, 6/18 FG), sat on the bench for most of the final quarter. In the meantime, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry’s reservists set themselves apart.
The Wizards may have had more talent at the top, but as John Wall and Bradley Beal’s backcourt had to play countless minutes, Raptors coach Dwane Casey Lowry and DeRozan left just over 30 minutes on the field. It may be true that in the postseason the rotations will be shorter, but if you can bet on at least ten players in the squad and have confidence, this is a huge plus.
But now the ultimate elk test for this Toronto team is on the agenda. The task is to defeat the demon of the Eastern Conference, LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers, and the time never seemed more ripe than this calendar year. Already the Indiana Pacers caused enormous difficulties for the triple reigning East Champion, which is why the series went over the full length. In the end, the Cavs with the worst score difference in NBA history came out on top with seven games (-40).
This was once again thanks to LeBron, who made the difference in Crunchtime – as so often seen in the Regular Season. In clutch moments the Cavs achieved a net rating of 59.0, the decisive advantage against a Pacers team, which otherwise acted at eye level and partly above.
But it wasn’t until Crunchtime that James dominated the action. Over the series, the King placed 34.4 points on average at 55 percent out of the field. He also cited his colors in all other important statistics (rebounds, assists, steals, blocks). This was bitterly necessary, as the rest of the Cavs scored just 38.8 percent from the field, Kevin Love was the only player after James with a double-digit score of 11.4 points.
Toronto must remember its strengths from the regular season, which means less pick’n’roll of the guards and more ball movement involving all players on the court. The Raptors increased their Assist Percentage from 47.2 percent (30th) to 59.0 percent within one season. Against the Wizards the value dropped a little (56.6), but was still respectable.
The Cavs have improved defensively against Indiana in half court, but if you make them spin, the set-up is often not right due to the many new players. Especially when Lowry or DeRozan are sitting on the bench, the backups have to keep up the offensive rhythm.
While the Raptors’ second unit was the best reserve in the league in the regular season (net rating: 8.3), the absence of VanVleet was clearly noticeable in the first five games (net rating: -9.9). VanVleet will not make the difference in this series, but he is the all-purpose glue of the Second Unit and keeps the offense alive, a quality that goes off, for example, Delon Wright, who has his strengths more on the other side of the field.
Simple offense must also be generated by transition – whether starter or reservist. Indiana did it with an average of 17 points per game in the fast break and proved that the Cavs can’t suddenly flip the switch and suddenly in the playoffs are solid in defensive switching. At the same time, however, this was also Toronto’s weakness against Washington, where John Wall kept pushing (18 allowed transition points per game).
But if you put all the number games aside, the mental aspect will also play an important role. With what self-confidence do the Canadians go into this series? Do you yourself believe in beating this LeBron team that has lost significantly in the last two years (2-4 and 0-4)? If you get positive answers here and keep your nerve in tight games, the Raptors are the much better team in this series.
Can LeBron once again offer such a level via a series? Who wants to bet against that? Especially since the Raptors will probably start with Rookie O.G. Anunoby against the mega-star. Against the top seed in the east only LeBron will probably not be enough, especially Love must – despite problems with the thumb – slowly start to hit his throws. A score of 33.3% from the field is far too low for a player of his class, although the last quarter against Indiana was at least hopeful.
Unlike Indiana, the Raptors have more options in attack, it seems questionable whether Cleveland can keep this partly highly explosive offense steady under 100 points. That’s why Ty Lue’s team must now show that they are actually capable of scoring countless points against each team.
To do this, players who are not number 23 must finally start potting their dice. Love and Kyle Korver hit exactly 40 percent from a distance, but then it gets dark, especially for proven specialists like J.R. Smith (31.3), Jose Calderon (26.7) or Rodney Hood (16.7). In any case, the mantle of silence should be laid over Jordan Clarkson’s quota of three (14.3 percent).
But it’s not even true that Cleveland can’t win an open threesome. According to stats.nba.com, over 12 attempts per game are completely free (i.e. at least 6 feet apart), so a quota of 40 percent is almost a little low.
George Hill was at least one important rotation player back in game 7. If he can play for a good 30 minutes after his back problems, the cavs at both ends of the field are extremely helped. Defensively he could check Lowry or DeRozan and relieve James a little in front with his ball handling. When LeBron had to be treated with convulsions against Indy, he kept the attack alive together with Love. No other Cavs player could claim this in the course of the series.
There is a lot to suggest this time that the Raptors Cleveland, who have been allergic to playoffs for a long time, are sending Cleveland on holiday, possibly ending the second LeBron era with the Cavs. The first two games could already provide for a preliminary decision. If Toronto does not give itself any nakedness at home, this could loosen any existing mental blockages. If the Cavs kidnap a game, however, the dynamics could quickly turn back in favor of the franchise from Ohio. The betting providers should lick their fingers after this matchup – every scenario seems possible. At the end of the day, however, the old rule applies: Never bet against LeBron James in the Eastern Conference. Forecast: Cavs in 6.