Welcome to a special issue of Above the Break – the SPOX NBA column! In the middle of the second playoff round, NBA editor Ole Frerks empties his mailbox and answers readers’ questions. Topics: The inhuman LeBron James, the strength of Celtics, the future of the Toronto Raptors and many more!
You have questions you want answered in the column? Then post them on Twitter!
@cpshimself: How can the strength of the Celtics playoffs be explained?
The Celtics have already exceeded expectations in the playoffs, quite clearly. Without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward it was actually clear that every victory would be a kind of “extra income”. Already in the first round against Milwaukee I only bet on Celtics in 7 because they had not only the home advantage but also the clearly defined identity and the better gameplan(s) on their side.
In a way, it continues against Philly, even though I had bet on the Sixers here. Brad Stevens is currently coaching outstanding playoffs and takes almost every advantage from Philly – the Sixers rarely get off the ground, against Ben Simmons and his missing throw Boston builds a wall, the Celtics are usually on their feet for shooters like J.J. Redick, so their impact is much smaller than against Miami. Philly also plays the Celtics to the max by going over Embiid in the post as often as necessary, making their game much slower than necessary. Again and again, four players stand around, while Embiid goes to work against Baynes or Horford.
However, Steven’s argument alone is not enough for me. Yesterday I already analysed how Embiid is defended, but it should be emphasised again: The Celtics squad is not as bad as it has been done often recently (even by me!), even after all the injuries.
The thing is that many of their best players are young or unproven. Nobody expected Jayson Tatum to be the better rookie than Simmons in this series, nor had Jaylen Brown or, of course, Scary Terry Rozier. These players are young and hungry and especially in the case of Rozier they also let themselves be carried emotionally in the home games.
The Celtics also have a team of veterans who know what they have to do, such as Marcus Morris or Baynes, who has already won a title with the Spurs. They make fewer mistakes than Philly, where the two best players are currently making their very first playoffs.
Speaking of four games, the best player in the series so far has been Horford, not Embiid or Simmons. No one would say that the five-time all-star is the most talented player in these three, but this series is a truly impressive demonstration of how much experience can make a difference. Horford knows what he has to do in every situation, Embiid does not (yet) know.
Nevertheless, it must be said: After three games, it could have easily stood 2-1 for the Sixers, the Celtics are just as dominant in this series as in the previous one. Your net rating is only very positive (+1.1). But above all thanks to Horford and Stevens they are currently simply smarter than their opponents in the decisive situations.
@kamil2_0: If the Celtics stay completely healthy next year, can they still be beaten at all?
Even if the Celtics stay healthy and LeBron builds a new super team somewhere, the favorite will be Golden State until further notice, as long as the Curry-KD-Thompson-Green-Core exists. That’s just in advance. But for sure the future of Celtics looks rosy, especially since they also have other sometimes high picks in their hindquarters to thread in deals if necessary.
If you look at Tatum, Rozier and Brown in this way at the moment, you can’t help but think that this season is an ideal year as an apprentice – all three have taken huge steps that would otherwise not have been possible at least at this pace. Rozier in particular now puts the Celtics in the situation that they have to decide whether they prefer to pay and keep him or the upcoming XFA Smart – but this is a luxury problem.
Of course, it is not possible to predict whether Hayward in particular next season will be exactly the same player he was with Utah before, or whether he will need even longer. Also Irving’s knee problems should at least be treated with mild scepticism. But it definitely looks like the Celtics will be one of the teams of the future in the East – just like Philly, by the way.
@berat_hoxha1: Shouldn’t Philly have traded the No.1 pick against veterans instead of picking a backup for Simmons?
Philly didn’t design Markelle Fultz with the goal of making him a permanent backup of Simmons. Maybe partially in the first season, but in principle the two No.1 picks should definitely play together – this is made possible by Fultz’s skill set, who can act nominally well off the ball. At least that was what we expected before the season.
Of course, it was not assumed that Fultz would (let) destroy the previously good throwing movement in summer. Until today it is not really clear what happened there and what exactly it was with his mysterious shoulder injury on itself had, therefore should not be speculated here either. In any case, there is still a lot of work ahead of him to repair the whole thing, even though at the end of the season there were at least a few decent approaches to be seen.
If the Sixers could reverse everything, they probably would have liked to have taken Tatum – but even his development could not have been foreseen. But Fultz is far from being a hopeless case. If they had concentrated exclusively on this season, veterans would have been better, but the “era” of the Embiid/Simmons-Sixers should have lasted a little longer.
Ideally Fultz is a prominent part of it, his star potential is not stolen all at once like in Space Jam. And also in other cases it would make more sense to let him play a few games first – his trade value is logically quite in the basement.
@Heuni: How can the Spurs rejuvenate? Rebuild does not seem to be an option.
Since Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and Patty Mills will all be earning a lot of money for a few more years, this is not an easy task. None of these players have real trade value, which you can say about almost the entire squad, except for Dejounte Murray, whom you almost certainly don’t want to give up, and Kawhi Leonard.
When San Antonio reaches an agreement with Kawhi and finalizes a new deal, the Spurs will otherwise do what they always do: at the end of the first round they will draft a “professional” rookie and otherwise explore the market for young, inexpensive players, probably also in Europe. Maybe they’re also trying to trade Danny Green if he pulls his $10 million option.
Player Option, Team Option, UFA = Unrestricted Free Agent, RFA = Restricted Free Agent
But if you don’t agree with Kawhi, the superstar’s trade is the logical consequence and the means to significantly rejuvenate the squad. However, this would probably result in a larger rebuild.
Page 1: Celtics vs. Sixers, the track future
Page 2: The Bucks, Toronto’s future and the almost unprecedented dominance of LeBron