The MLB Draft 2018 is just around the corner and the race for the first overall pick is open. A hot candidate is Casey Mize, the pitching ace of the Auburn Tigers. The right-handed player has one of the most impressive pitches in his class and also has very manageable weaknesses.
The biggest difference between the MLB drag and the drafts of the other major US sports leagues is certainly its unpredictability. In NFL, NBA and NHL you usually get a pretty good impression of who is being pulled with the first picks, in MLB you are almost always in the dark.
In 2018, however, this could be different. If you look at the individual mock drafts or listen to the opinions of scouting experts, a name appears in connection with the first pick held by the Detroit Tigers: Casey mize.
The Auburn University Starting Pitcher is clearly number 1 in the draft, as well as in the top 100 lists of numerous prospect pages such as MLB Pipeline. The right-handed person represents just about everything that will make up a future Ace in the MLB.
Mize had an average of about seven innings per start, which is a lot in college and no longer a sure thing in the MLB these days. However, it is much more than just a “workhorse”. He’s also a strikeout artist! In his three-year college career, he achieved more than 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. And he has great control, which is underlined by his 301 strikeouts, which only 37 walks face. In 2018 this ratio will even be 133 to 10!
This is made possible by his impressive arsenal of pitches. Besides his fastball, which he can beat into the high 90-MPH range – without much effort, of course – he has a splinter in the high 80-MPH range, which draft expert Keith Law of ESPN calls “devastating” against right-handers.
Keith Law, the drafting expert at ESPN, is so enthusiastic about the splitter that he classifies it as “Double-Plus”, giving it a scouting grade of 70. As a rule, scouting levels range from 20 to 80, so a 70 is very, very strong. Law goes so far as to say that Mizes Splitter is “the best swing/miss pitch in this draft class. MLB Pipeline seems to share this assessment.
The fastball, which normally sits in the lower to middle 90-MPH range, is also classified as 60 and has above-average movement, and Mize controls this pitch very well.
He also throws a slider, which can also be described as a combination of curveball and slider. It flies in the middle 80-MPH range and is still expandable (Grade: 55). There is also a cutter that is at least above average and particularly effective against left-handers.
Basically, Mize is a pitcher that any team would love: He is an extreme groundball pitcher and forces pitches into the lower part of the strike zone with his fast ball. Homeruns against him will probably remain a rarity – especially since his best characteristic is surely his control.
But Casey Mize is also not without risk. The right-hander missed the start of his 2017 sophomore season with fatigue wear in his arm. He seems to have recovered from that, as his 95 innings underpin 2018. But you can’t ignore this episode either.
Like so many other pitcher of this draft class, he also throws his pitches out of a 3/4 slot. But that’s not a problem. It only becomes problematic when looking at his entire body. Mizes pitch movement seems to put too much focus on the arm and neglects the so important footwork.
This tendency can certainly be eliminated with targeted work, especially since in the long run it would be better for the arm not to carry the full load in pitches.
But during the pitch it always moves directly to the plate and has a good defensive position as soon as the ball comes into play – which is not completely insignificant with groundball pitchers. In addition, a release point is extremely constant.
For Auburn, a high selection would also have a very special significance. Auburn hadn’t had a first-round pick since 2001 – Gabe Gross was in 16th place with the Toronto Blue Jays. What’s more, never before has an Auburn player been the first overall pick out of the draft. Mize could therefore provide for an absolute novelty.
This article was published without previous view by the Major League Baseball.