Welcome to the new issue of Above the Break – the SPOX NBA column! In the middle of the Conference Finals, NBA editor Ole Frerks empties his mailbox and answers readers’ questions. Topics: The actions of Dennis Schröder, the center position at the Golden State Warriors, Luka Doncic vs. DeAndre Ayton – and many more!
You have questions you want answered in the column? Then post them on Twitter!
@kamil2_0: At a level like the Conference Finals, why do the games always run out +10 (or more clearly) and not tighter?
Even though the two fourth games were now closer, especially the sensational fourth game in the West, this was of course a correct observation: The first six games of the Conference Finals ended with 13 (2x), 22, 25, 30 and 41 points difference and there was almost no real tension. In my opinion, there are many reasons for this.
One factor that runs through almost all blowouts is the threesome: all four teams that are still standing take a bunch of threesomes and are to a certain extent dependent on the role players sinking their triples. The Rockets did not dominate Game 2, for example, because their stars played outstandingly, but because the combination Ariza-Tucker-Gordon could hardly miss.
The Celtics hit 38.7 percent of their threesomes at home, but only 30.6 away – a key factor in their unbeaten performance in Boston, where they only won one game away. The home advantage seems to play an important role for all teams. At least in the East, where the performances of the role-players at home and abroad differ day and night.
Especially in the West, the teams are so explosive that some bad minutes can immediately lead to a 20-point deficit. Then the coaches have to consider whether the seeds for a comeback are still there or whether they can give certain stars an extra break or even try out lineup combinations that might make a difference in the next game.
I don’t believe in Bill Simmons’ theory that some games are deliberately given away, but surely the workload is a topic that occupies the coaches. Is it worthwhile to let Chris Paul play 40+ minutes if his team is down by 20+ points, or is it better to save energy and in the meantime to see if a few players who are not used as often can catch fire again?
Admittedly, the results so far have often been disappointing. Too many games have already lost their appeal before the fourth quarter. The factor coincidence is so great, especially in view of the triple quota from game to game, that it will hardly be possible to find a “solution” for it.
Especially game 4 in Oakland has now shown that there is another way. Now both series are “best-of-3” – so I assume that no team will save anything now.
@jaspervonlegat: What does the center mean to the warriors? How important is the position in their game and why is it so easy to change through the position like this. Last season Zaza, that JaVale McGee and in the playoffs nobody or many.
As long as the Warriors don’t meet Shaquille O’Neal at his best, the center position doesn’t play a major role in their game – like all classic positions. The dubs have almost perfected the much quoted “positionless” game, because they can switchen anything with their smaller lineups and only Stephen Curry can become a weak point in individual matchups (even if he is a better defender than he is often allowed to).
The catalyst for this, the one who makes everything possible, is Draymond Green. I still don’t get enough credit for what a unique player Green is, which is certainly also due to his – politically correct expressed – difficult nature. But what he is currently delivering again in the playoffs can hardly be emphasized enough. There’s always talk of defensive versatility, but nobody but Green regularly defends all five positions without ever being a real mismatch.
Harden and Paul may think it’s a good prospect to play Green Iso at the perimeter, but it’s not a really effective game – 0.65 points per posession jump out in isolation against Green in these playoffs. At the same time, he remains one of the best ring protectors in the league. It anticipates plays better than any other NBA defender and fills gaps before others even notice them.
That he also has more than capable team and individual defenders like Thompson, Iguodala, Livingston and of course Durant around him naturally helps and allows Green to act as the organizer of – if focused – still the best defense in the league.
However, Green can’t play all his minutes on the five (although it’s a very big part of the playoffs), nor can he stand on the court for 48 minutes. Because of their salary structure, however, the Warriors are currently unable to get a top-class center, so they have put together a potpourri of ring chasers and youngsters on rookie deals for the big positions.
Curiously, the Warriors squad, famous for small ball, consists almost half of Big Men. Depending on the matchup, Kerr decides whose strengths are currently needed, whether, for example, McGee’s athletics against New Orleans or Kevon Looney’s greater agility against the Rockets are more in demand.
None of them is a really good long-term solution, but there is no need for it. As long as Green has his emotions (enough) under control, the most important minutes on the five will go to him. No one has been able to consistently punish that yet.
@svlkicker: What do the Celtics do in the Offseason? Does it make sense to trade one of the three wings (Brown, Tatum, Hayward) for an elitist Big Man? One of the three would have to come from the bank. Who was that closest?
The Celtics already have an elite big man in Al Horford – when we look at the current playoffs, he embodies exactly the player type that is currently in demand. Similar to Green, Horford’s versatility is the key to almost everything that makes Boston defensive and offensive. Horford is the Draymond of the East, with much less attitude and better throw. The way NBA basketball looks today is one of the most valuable types of players you can have (except for super-duper stars like LeBron or Durant).
The second most valuable kind? Two-way players on the grand piano that are athletic and versatile enough to handle all kinds of switches. Players like Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Marcus Smart… you can’t have enough of them! It is no coincidence that Danny Ainge has wanted these players for years, even though the Brown pick was criticised and Markelle Fultz’s trade for Tatum and a lottery pick was not understood everywhere.
Boston will not open all next season, but many games with the Starting Five Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford. At the end of most games the three wings should all be on the court and that’s exactly what makes the Celtics so interesting for the coming season – and probably also the favourite in the East. Sooner or later Boston won’t be able to pay all three, but it’s not that far yet.
Player option, **=Team option, RFA=Restricted Free Agent, UFA=Unrestricted Free Agent
What’s up for this summer is a different decision: Boston has to weigh up how much money RFA Smart is worth and what to make of the personality Terry Rozier. Scary Terry will have RFA after the coming season and the Celtics will hardly want to afford two expensive backup guards – Roziers value has never been higher than current (always after the home games). Ainge could easily be trusted to use the favor of the moment and sell Rozier off for further assets, but you can’t be sure here.
In addition: I believe that nobody is fundamentally untradeable with the Celtics. However, the player who is “safest” is Tatum. Not even Irving has as much upside as he does, he is more expensive and now has a history of knee problems. Tatum will only ever be traded, if at all, when a caliber like Anthony Davis comes back.
@Posh1Josh: How do you feel about the rumor that the Spurs Kawhi Leonard offered a 219 million 5 year contract. You think he’ll sign it?
They can only offer him this contract from 1 July, when the Free Agency begins, but I assume they will. Whether he will sign it is another question – I had already written a lot about it here before and we haven’t got much smarter since the playoff out of San Antonios either. From Spurs’ point of view, however, there is still great interest in keeping one of the best players in the league, as it is with him, is difficult to judge.
The fact is that no one has rejected the “Supermax” treaty since it was introduced. Leonard can only sign this with the Spurs if they really make him the appropriate offer. But at the moment nobody knows exactly what Leonard’s priorities really look like.
Page 1: Playoff Blowouts, Warriors Center, Celtics trades
Page 2: Dennis Schröder, Luka Doncic, the Mavs and Heat and NBA Expansion