The Detroit Tigers are one of the many MLB teams currently under reconstruction. In contrast to comparable projects, however, the trough here does not yet seem to have bottomed out. SPOX looks into the Motor City and illuminates the stand of the rebuild.
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The Detroit Tigers are in no-man’s-land of the table. And the only competition that is still relevant to them this season is that for the best possible draft position. If the season were over now, they would peck in sixth place – right behind the Marlins. At worst – or at best? – the Padres, White Sox and Marlins would still be in third place if they started certain winning series.
The situation in Detroit, where the sixth-best baseball record was at home from 2006 to 2016, is such a sad situation these days. Since then, however, a lot has happened in the Motor City. And not much of it was positive.
In mid-2015, one year after their fourth division victory in a row at the time, they left big-name pitcher David Price and star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for numerous talents, including Michael Fulmer, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris. However, there was expressly no talk of rebuild. The then General Manager Dave Dombrowski euphemistically described it as a “reboot”.
However, this boot trial got stuck somewhere, so Detroit finished the season in 5th place of the AL Central. Dombrowski was dismissed in the season and replaced by Al Avila, who is still in charge today.
In 2016, everything seemed to be more or less in order again, Justin Verlander recovered from a season that was weak due to injury and Fulmer was voted Rookie of the Year. In the end, the division finished second, but the playoffs were missed.
The overall picture, however, caused euphoria that prompted the Tigers to upgrade strongly. Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann were two free agents, each earning in the nine-figure range, along with further acquisitions.
As in 2016, 2017 saw more than 200 million dollars on the payroll. In sporting terms, however, the team did not get off to a flying start. Rather, the responsible persons really pulled the emergency brake this time and separated again from Big Names. Upton went to Anaheim and Verlander, next to Miguel Cabrera the face of the franchise, went to Houston – and won the World Series.
Once again, fifth place was the final result. The big question for 2018 was where the journey would go. Deeper into the rebuild or all to attack again?
Reason triumphed and the focus was on breaking into a tough future with young people. Ron Gardenhire, an experienced man who had celebrated great success with the Minnesota Twins and now got a new chance.
At the end of May Avila told The Athletic: “We held onto our boys as long as possible. And then at some point you have to make a decision and that’s what we did last year.”
However, the question must be allowed whether this decision was not taken too late. Would it really have taken the uptons and carpenters? Was the rip cord pulled at the right time?
There is no doubt that it is never easy to admit to yourself that rebuilding is the best option because the status quo simply no longer allows success. For a team in particular, which is used to putting a lot of money into personnel, such a step is almost like a declaration of bankruptcy and therefore wants to be well-considered.
Detroit held back noticeably on the transfer market in 2018. The biggest name was therefore pitcher Francisco Liriano, who from the bullpen of the Astros to the starter of the Tigers became and now again with his first manager in the MLB – Gardenhire – met. Apart from that, only rather unknown additions were made.
However, the path taken bore fruit until the summer. The Tigers played solidly and stayed with the Cleveland Indians – in an admittedly weak division. But since then the team gradually ran out of breath. A severe blow was, of course, Miguel Cabrera’s injury including premature end of the season (biceps rupture) in mid-June. Later followed trades that shipped outfielder Leonys Martin and finally pitcher Mike Fiers.
And so from a rather weak team only a fallow scaffolding remains, at least as far as the offensive is concerned.
Only Right Fielder Nicholas Castellanos beats in the whole team over league average. Some of the others were completely disappointed. Of course, Cabrera, who had shown himself to be much more productive again after the weak previous year – until his serious injury, of course.
(Note: A fifth starter is currently not determined due to injury.)
Pitching, on the other hand, looks better. Here the rotation tends to be just above the league cut, while a few pearls can be found in the bullpen, especially all-star Joe Jimenez (106 ERA+) or Closer Chane Greene (110 ERA+).
It should be noted that Fulmer in particular should have room for improvement. He recently returned from an injury and showed at least good beginnings. His fast ball had more bite again and control of his breaking balls seemed improved. Too late, however, to arouse real trade interest in right-handers until the end of August.
But with a good final phase, Fulmer could rebuild his value. It will remain under team control until the end of 2022 and should then be very attractive for numerous interested parties in winter, when it finds its shape again. On the other hand, Fulmer will quickly become expensive as he could go through the arbitration process four times as a Super Two player.
A Fulmer trade could bring the tigers an exorbitantly high price, a package of numerous prospects that the farming system would bitterly need. Now Detroit only has five Top 100 prospects – all pitcher – and the 2018 first-round pick Casey Mize is already one of them.
Another trade chip is of course Castellanos, which will enter its last year under team control in 2019. In winter it should still be possible to achieve a good price for him. During the season less, because then he would become an essential rental player and for such a player you don’t spend too much in the form of talents these days.
So that the rebuild can also have lasting success, there will have to be significantly more prospects. Otherwise, it will be difficult to return the troops to top levels in the long term.
If, however, this conversion should work on the basis of good junior staff, then the war coffers will be full to bursting. Apart from Miguel Caberera, who is under contract until 2023 and is still entitled to 184 million dollars, and Jordan Zimmermann (74 million by the end of 2020), no major earner will be under contract beyond 2018.
The Tigers 2018 are thus in a waiting position. You know you can’t go upstairs anymore. At the same time, however, they also know that something is still possible downwards. In their situation, defeats would be better than victories, since a better draft position also means more pool money for international amateur players, which is an equally important source of talent as the draft itself.
In this respect Detroit is also in a dilemma: on the one hand, of course, they want to win the games as best they can. On the other hand, however, defeats now bring more in the long run.
Rebuilds are never easy, but the phase Detroit is currently in is particularly tough for everyone involved. One certainly knows that the chosen path is the right one – at the same time the light at the end of the long tunnel is still invisible.
The end of the process is not yet within reach. The next weeks and months could, however, be decisive as to how well and how quickly the rebuilding of the Detroit Tigers will be completed. Until then, all participants need one thing above all: patience.
This article was published without previous view by the Major League Baseball.