Week 3 in the NFL had the biggest surprise of the young season so far – why are the Minnesota Vikings losing so badly at home to Buffalo? Also, which team should Le’Veon Bell grab and what alternatives do the 49ers have following Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury?
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The Vikings’ defeat to Buffalo was a real shock and the biggest surprise of the week. But how could this happen? How can such a talented and top-class team like Minnesota, with a well-rehearsed, league-wide top 3 defense, a good quarterback and one of the best receiver duos of the NFL against a Bills team in complete upheaval with a rookie quarterback at home, get such a beating?
The Vikings were fast 0:17 and then 0:27 behind and prevented only the shutout in the end narrowly. I noticed some things on tape; two central reasons for the defeat in my eyes: Minnesota underestimated the Bills and simply played arrogantly, which was reflected in coverage busters, communication errors and the like.
Without question an unpleasant realization, but nothing that Mike Zimmer cannot (and will not) repair – but more alarming were the problems in the offensive line. Throughout the offseason, the Vikings have been considered one of the most complete teams in the league, but with the addition that the line could be a problem.
The only difference was that you wouldn’t really feel that in week 3 against the Bills, and not in a playoff game against the Rams or Eagles – you couldn’t really count on that.
Minnesota’s offensive line was devastating. Kirk Cousins had 60 dropbacks in this game, the Bills recorded 40 (!) quarterback pressures. Jerry Hughes alone had an absurd 13 pressures, for comparison: Khalil Mack came in at 12 against Seattle and Green Bay.
The Vikings could not block a good, but certainly no elite front from Buffalo. Even with simple 4-men-rushs without complex pressure or lightning designs.
This is the one big worrying finding from the Vikings game. Buffalo flashed only ten times, which did not result in a single pressure. Cousins was up against the lightning nine out of ten passes, the problems came without the lightning.
Especially the Edge players, the Defensive Ends and also Outside Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, caused huge problems for the Vikings-Tackles. Problems, some of which were home-made.
Cousins’ first fumble came on a long third down. The Bills suggest an edge flash, but only bring four at the end and leave the middle of the line uncovered. Behind it they play a zone coverage.
Cousins also uses this space in the middle of the pocket to buy time, but although he has a completely open receiver here, he doesn’t trust his read, holds the ball too long and lets Buffalo’s pass rush break through around the edge.
Second fumble, similar image. Again it is a long third down and again the Bills Pre-Snap indicate a flash, this time even more aggressive with all linebackers directly at the line of scrimmage. Again, only four players rushed at the end, but with a trick, a great design.
On the right side the routes of the two Rushers cross, which has the same effect as a Rub route for the offense: The Left Tackle has to navigate around the Running Back in Protection to follow the Rusher with the deep rush – he doesn’t succeed, so Hughes comes to cousins in a flash.
The Rush package is rounded off by the linebacker on the side. After the snap, he takes a short step forward and “occupies” the left guard, just to drop into coverage afterwards. But with this the Guard is out of the Edge-Protection and can no longer support.
As already mentioned above, the Bills didn’t flash very much and weren’t very successful. This is one of the ten lightning calls Cousins threw an Incompletion.
Buffalo plays a cover-1, a deep safety, otherwise man coverage everywhere and five Rushers. Tremaine Edmunds, the right one of the two linebackers, is the primary speed camera, for him the way is cleared – and if Cousins had held the ball half a second longer, that would also have been a bag.
However, that was the exception.
But it wasn’t just the offensive line or a few wrong decisions by Kirk Cousins that cost Minnesota this game; the defense, and that was the much bigger surprise, was at least as big a problem.
Simple play designs in Buffalo’s offense had an enormous effect. At the 17-0 touchdown, Allen simply fooled a screen pass, Minnesota’s defense bit completely and Croom was completely open to the touchdown. Conversely, screen receivers and dumpoffs were also regularly uncovered, run pass options, simple shovel passes and the like gave everyone security.
A little later there was the 55-yard catch-and-run of Chis Ivory, here Allen kept the play alive after a play action fake and absolutely nobody was responsible for Ivory.
Play-Action-Screen combinations also worked, Minnesota forgot its assignments completely several times and that caused receivers to open wide, while they couldn’t hold Allen in their pocket even during the flash and afforded stupid punishments – things that you simply can’t see in Zimmer’s defense. Normally.
And what insights do you take from a game like this? As far as the overall picture is concerned, a massive slip-up by a team that was perhaps a bit too sure in the face of its opponent. The fact that the Vikings-Line had constant problems against a regular 4-men-rush is one detail that is really worrying here. Also and especially with a view to the very big goals in Minnesota.
Since Sunday we know that the Pittsburgh Steelers are listening to trade offers for Le’Veon Bell and are ready to let the running back go. The obvious question that has been asked several times in my Twitter mentions since then is of course: which team could be interested now? Maybe the jets? Packers? Tampa Bay? Indianapolis?
But isn’t the real question rather: Should anyone trade for Le’Veon Bell at all? Or in a somewhat diluted form: For which team would this even make sense in the complete package?
The contractual situation is not easy. Bell has already lost about $2.5 million of his franchise day due to his strike, and every game he sits out costs him a good $800,000. He wouldn’t be a bargain if he signed the day now, then he would still have to pay about 12 million dollars – just for the rest of this season.
This does not include the fact that Pittsburgh of course also demands a draft pick, presumably a high mid-round pick, as compensation and Bell only agrees to all this, signs his franchise day and then can actually be traded and play for the new team if he receives any verbal assurance that he will receive a long-term contract after the season. As soon as he can sign that.
Of course, Bell would make most teams in the league better. But not to the extent that the package of trade price, franchise day and long-term contract costs. He is a very good running back, but not a player who takes an offense to a new level on his own. So perhaps the best question to sum up all this is: which team is willing to pay too much for Bell?
San Francisco was a hot candidate for me with over $30 million in Cap Space, but Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury changed everything for the Niners. The Browns and Colts have much more cap space, but are either in the best position (Browns) or obviously following a different path for change (Colts). The jets are aggressively trying to make their team better for Darnold – but how much sense does it make to put additional resources into Bell in addition to Powell and Crowell?
But with one team as my personal favourite, I got stuck in the end. Because it has cap space (over $22 million), just like a coach who could be desperate enough and a quarterback who could only too well use a safe checkdown option in passing: the Houston Texans.
Page 1: Minnesota’s debacle – and who should sign Le’Veon Bell?
Page 2: Garoppolo replacement, the Bills, Sam Darnold, Patriots, Rookies – your questions