The Washington Redskins come to New Orleans from the extremely early Bye Week – where a brand new Saints Opense awaits. But New Orleans is defensively vulnerable, can Alex Smith and Co. capitalize on it? In Coin Toss SPOX editor Adrian Franke discusses with Washington fan and mySPOX user MXG13, the game can be seen live on DAZN from 2.15 am!
mySPOX-User MXG13: Revenge Game! 5:58 minutes were still on the clock in the fourth quarter on the 11th matchday of last season, when the Redskins took the lead with 31:16 at the Saints. What happened then is hard to explain: With two perfect drives Drew Brees led the Saints down the peloton and equalled the game with a touchdown pass to Alvin Kamara just before the end. New Orleans won as a Redskins fan outweighed the disappointment of defeat. Nevertheless, the team showed what they were made of that day.
Had the Saints performance been on the field for the entire season, there would have been more to it than the 7-9 record that the Redskins had at the end of 2017. And this year, I want it to go better: If, unlike last year, you can be reasonably spared injuries, the wildcard in the NFC should be within the bounds of possibility. A strong running game last year was the key to a good performance against the Saints for the Redskins; 156 yards on the ground could be converted in 32:11 minutes ball possession.
So you could keep Drew Brees and the explosive Saints Offense off the field for a long time and give your defence time to catch its breath. A look at the statistics shows how closely the success of the skins is linked to a successful run game: 182 as well as 166 yards on the ground were the two quite clear wins of the season against the Cardinals and the Packers. A miserable 65 Rushing-Yards led to a 9:21 defeat against the Colts.
If the running game works, the skin opener also works. The Saints are facing this project with a solid run defense. Dennis Allen’s men have so far allowed 3.2 yards per carry (league-wide best value). However, Trent Williams and Co. have been able to appear as one of the better lines of the league so far and should also be able to hold their own against the Saints.
If the Redskins’ O-Line manages to get Adrian Peterson a place to run, quarterback Alex Smith and his passport receivers will make life a lot easier. If the balance between run and pass is right, the offense will score points. The pass receivers around Jordan Reed, Paul Richardson, Jamison Crowder and the versatile Chris Thompson are too good for the weak Saints Pass Defense to stop them permanently without neglecting the run.
The Redskins Defense, on the other hand, with 278 yards allowed per game (3rd place in the league) and only 14.7 points allowed (2nd place) so far, could show significantly better performances than most expected – but with the Saints, the toughest test of the season so far comes to the troops.
The focus is on the newly strengthened D-Line. Rookie Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis have had 6 bags together so far. If they can put pressure on Brees while preventing Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, who has just returned from his suspension, from getting too much space in the run game, the rest of the defense can play aggressively against the ball and possibly force a turnover.
Stopping Brees, Kamara, Ingram and Michael Thomas is no easy task. But if the Redskins want to show that there is more to this year than a 7- or 8-victory season, they have to manage to keep the Saints Open in check and even dominate the ball possession time.
Time for preparation should have been sufficient. My tip: The Redskins come well recovered and well prepared from the early bye – win the Saints 28:20 and go 3-1.
Adrian Franke (SPOX): Washington may have had a very good passport defense so far, but it has also had to do with some questionable passing openings.
New Orleans hasn’t really changed its basic orientation on the side of the ball. Brees still throws the ball comparatively short (only seven Average Intended Air Yards, less than Mariota, Dalton or Prescott for example), because the Saints in the screen game are highly dangerous: last week alone against the Giants, 42 passing yards resulted from passes that didn’t cross the Line of Scrimmage.
New Orleans can also do a lot of damage to Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas from the slot in the short pass game – but it’s striking that Brees has so far been at the bottom of the league in terms of play-action use (17.3 percent).
Quite conceivable that this will change this week when the Saints get Mark Ingram back. Only ten teams used the run game for the first four games less often than New Orleans, with Ingram back on the field it should look different. Maybe coach Sean Payton is waiting for it before he becomes more aggressive in the Play Action Pass game, and since Washington allows 4.5 yards per run (tenth highest value) Ingram could get a good portion of work right away.
But even without using play action intensively, it is extremely difficult to come to Drew Brees so far. In almost 75 percent of his dropbacks he has a clean pocket, which is partly due to a very good line, but also to the many fast passes. Washington will therefore have a heavy task in front of its chest in the passport rush, and Underneath Coverage is probably not up to this task.
So if we assume that the Saints score, then the question remains: How can Washington answer? The way the Redskins-Offense looks so far, there is little to indicate that it can win a shootout. Alex Smith throws just 7.3 percent of his passes at least 20 yards down the field, even Sam Bradford (7.5 percent) had a higher quota.
Everything in this Redskins opense seems to be designed to work short and in the middle of the field: With passes to Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder as well as runs over Adrian Peterson. From Saints’ point of view, this gives reason to hope that Washington will not be able to exploit the biggest weakness of the season so far – the Big Plays in the passing game. The same could be observed last week in the game between the Saints and the Giants.
The best chance for Washington in theory is probably to agree with you to extend your drives with a strong dose of Adrian Peterson and to keep Drew Brees and Co. on the side line as long as possible. You’ve already mentioned the problem with that: For the first four weeks, no team allows less yards per run than the Saints.