The National League Championship Series is just around the corner. In a maximum of seven games between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, we know who will make it into the World Series. Both teams are strong in different ways and so the smallest mistake will make the difference.
The Brewers lost 0:3 on September 23 at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Why is that relevant? Well, it was the last bankruptcy of the Brew Crew in the MLB until today! Since then, they have won eleven games in a row, including the tiebreaker for the NL Central crown against the Chicago Cubs.
The Brewers are undoubtedly the hottest team in the league. One that also does not necessarily resort to conventional means to be successful. Rather, Craig Counsell’s team is one of the most progressive and aggressive in their approach to the bullpen.
In other words: When Jhoulys Chacin is not starting, Counsell’s line is extremely short. With Chacin, at least for a little while. In the last four games Chacin completed at least five innings – twice – while for Wade Miley in game 3 against the Rockies it was already over after 4 2/3 innings, and Bobby Woodruff – a budget relief – as opener in game 1 of the NLDS pitched three innings.
Afterwards, a crowd of relievers, led by left-hander Josh Hader and Closer Jeremy Jeffress, took over, which is almost unbeatable.
The announced starters of the Brewers for the NLCS already promise more of this. Gio Gonzalez pitches game 1, Miley game 2. Chacin would only be an option in game 3, but could act as a reliever in game 1.
The Brewers are something like the wet dream of MLB network moderator and book author Brian Kenny, who raves in “Ahead of the Curve” about this extreme approach of “bullpening”. Counsell and Co. put it into action. And especially in short postseason series this approach seems to be logical.
The Dodgers – themselves quite progressively positioned – are more likely to take the traditional approach with clear starting pitchers. But they can also afford it, having excellent options like Clayton Kershaw (8 IP, 0 ER in game 2 against Atlanta) or Hyun-Jin Ryu (7 IP, 0 ER in game 1 against Atlanta), whose starts in the NLDS were almost half the battle.
The duel of the Dodgers Open against the pitching of the Brewers, which Dodgers manager Dave Roberts called a “game of chess”, is particularly exciting. The Brewers are betting carefully on two left-handed players to start. As a result, Los Angeles starts with David Freese on first base – not Max Muncy, who has much more power, but beats Lefties worse.
In addition, in theory, Outfielder Yasiel Puig, who only beats .209 against Lefties in spite of his right-handed strike, but only beats .297 against right-handed players, is taken out of the game. The alternative is Matt Kemp (.273 against Lefties with 11 HR), whose form curve generally went south in the second half of the season.
“We like the matchup against their lineup,” Counsell said, “It’s no secret that we’re going to use our pitching a little differently than the traditionalists do. And so we liked the matchup with Gio on the mouth the best. We want Gio to go out and make a lot of outs. We’ll see how many exactly.”
In the first two games, the Brewers deliberately forego their best starter (Chacin) in order to force the Dodgers to play a supposedly weaker lineup. Exciting!
Alternatively, the Dodgers also have something in the tactical net: they will place at least one strong right-handed hitter on the bench to release it late in the game on super-left-handed Josh Hader. Although Hader – like actually all Reliever of the crew – are not necessarily particularly susceptible in things Lefty-Righty-Splits.
But no matter who looks better or worse against whom, Roberts says: “No matter how good a pen is, the more innings it has to work, the better it is for us”.
On the other hand, the Dodgers are facing several major challenges. On the one hand, there is the Brewers’ offense, which may not be top class, but is very dynamic at the top.
Above all Christian Yelich can hardly be spotted these days. He did it this postseason – very small sample size! – to a 1,196 OPS. Only Max Muncy’s been better so far. Third in the NL list? Travis Shaw, who is on second base thanks to the arrival of Third Baseman Mike Moustakas, banishing Jonathan Schoop to the bench from where he can still do some damage late in the game, after all, the numerous pitcher changes also require some pinch hitters.
On the other hand, at least subliminally there is still skepticism about Kershaw in the playoffs. His gala appearance against Atlanta was the first time ever that he pitched eight innings in the postseason. And his previous results were rather manageable, although he has a positive balance (8-7). Can he continue the positive trend or does he fall into old patterns?
And how serious will it be for Ryu in Game 2 to play away? In the Dodger Stadium he excelled this year in 54 2/3 innings with a 1.15 ERA (.229 wOBA). On the other hand, he was rather solid away (27 2/3 IP, 3.58 ERA, .339 wOBA). So will it be a disadvantage that he probably won’t perform at home in this series? Is it worth it, especially since a Yelich is strong against Lefties (.338 Avg.)?
Both teams are close to each other, even if they have completely different strengths. The Dodgers rely on traditional good starting pitching and enormous cadre depth, the Brewers concentrate on a few lighthouses in the Offense like Yelich, Cain or Ryan Braun and rely on Bellpenning.
So Roberts is right when he talks about a game of chess. It will depend on little things and details will decide who makes the leap into the World Series.
This article was published without prior review by Major League Baseball.