The American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros promises to be top class. The Astros are considered a favorite – with good reason. But Boston might have the right antidote.
Can there be an underdog in a series of two superpowers? The Red Sox won 108 games this season, the Astros 103, and it’s not often that two teams face each other with over 200 wins in total!
And yet experts these days seem to tend to make the Red Sox – the team with by far the highest payroll (approx. 230 million dollars) – the underdog. The Astros (payroll at around 164 million dollars) are the big favourite as defending champions.
And on paper, that may be true. The facts speak clearly for Houston! As Red Sox manager Alex Cora already explained, the Astros have improved defensively enormously. He must know, because last year he was bench coach of the World Champion.
The figures also prove him right, as the astros have increased significantly in almost all relevant defensive statistics. Last year they were still at -11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), in 2018 it was +20. Their UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating projected to the average season of a field player) increased from -3.6 to -1.3 and their overall defensive rating went up from -41.6 to -9.5. The latter values are still not famous, but clearly better than last year.
The fact that the Red Sox (UZR/150: 6.7, defensive rating: 26.3) perform significantly better here is primarily due to the fact that they provide one of the best and most spectacular outfields with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. Their infield defense – above all Third Baseman Rafael Devers, Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and all-purpose rifle Eduardo Nunez – make up for this in DRS (-46).
But much more serious is what the Astros did as a team. Their run difference of +263 (+229 Red Sox) is the third best since the beginning of the Wildcard era – only the 1998 Yankees (+309) and the Mariners of 2001 (+300) were better. This leads to a Pythagorean victory rate – the theoretical number of victories based on achieved and collected runs – of .690, the second highest since World War II (Orioles 1969: .694). In reality they have only become .636 (103-59), which is still outstanding.
But if you look closely, you will find that the secret of success for the Astros lies in pitching. Not only do they have an absolutely dominant pitching rotation, they also have one of the best bullpens since the trade deadline in July.
The Astros have the rare ability to make pitcher better than they may appear elsewhere. Let’s take Gerrit Cole, who was taken from Pittsburgh before the season. He had a mixed season in 2017 (4.06 ERA), but increased in Texas (2.88 ERA). But how did this happen?
As with the Pirates, Cole also threw fastballs with the Astros. But in contrast to last year (45.8 percent), Cole threw 68.2 percent of his fastballs into the upper half of the strike zone this year. The result: Opposing batters now swing past his fastball in 28.3 percent of cases – in 2017 it was still 17.7 percent.
Why is that? Cole has a very high spin rate with his fastball. On average, his fastball has 2378 revolutions per minute, which is the third best value in baseball with at least 1500 pitches. If you throw a fastball with such a high spin rate high into or above the strike zone, it acts on a batsman as if the ball would rise, which a fastball normally does not. The trained eye of a Major League hitter therefore usually swings underneath.
Even better in this area is Cole’s team mate Justin Verlander, whose Fastball is doing 2618 RPM (Rounds per Minute). It is no coincidence that he leads the American League with 290 strikeouts.
But these are “only” the Starting Pitcher. Also in the bullpen the Astros perform apparently miracle things. At the end of July they acquired Relief Pitcher Ryan Pressly from the Kepler Club Minnesota Twins. A trade that received relatively little attention and was regarded as a pure increase in cadres. Why shouldn’t I? Right-handed man was average at best.
But the Astros analytics department saw one thing above all else: a curveball that had the highest spin rate (3225 RPM) in the majors (with at least 300 pitches of this kind thrown). Studies show that a high spin rate on breaking balls leads to more effectiveness. And Pressly is living proof of that.
The Astros let Pressly throw more curveballs and suddenly he became one of the hottest pitchers in the league. “They made it clear to me that my Curveball is probably one of the best in the league, so I should be able to throw it more often,” Pressly told The Athletic in September.
For Houston he has a 0.72 ERA with 34 strikeouts (3 BB) in 25 innings. Opponents beat him .129, which is outstanding from a pitcher’s point of view.
In general, the Astros have a historically outstanding pitching staff. Their 130 ERA+ – they pitch 30 percent better than the league average – is, according to the baseball reference, the sixth highest value since 1969, and their 30.7 wins above replacement are, according to FanGraphs, the second best value since 1969.
The Astros are therefore truly the favourite. But the actually powerful Red Sox shouldn’t make themselves that small! After all, with 876 they are the best offense of the MLB (Astros: 797 Runs). They also lead the MLB with a .340 weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which is a big challenge for astros pitching.
Even more: The Red Sox are the second best team in the league against Fastballs and the best against Fastballs that fly 95 miles per hour fast. Astros throw fastballs at an average of 94.8 miles per hour. And of the four expected starters, three rely mainly on “Number 1”.
The ALCS 2018 promises to be a giant duel. Power versus power. The eternally young question of what wins championships must be answered once again: Pitching or hitting?
This article was published without prior review by Major League Baseball.