Week 8 ends with a very one-sided duel on paper: The Buffalo Bills (2-5) receive the New England Patriots (5-2) for the division duel – and only few arguments speak for the Bills. How can Buffalo possibly manage the sensation? SPOX editor Adrian Franke will discuss this with mySPOX user and Patriots fan Becks23. The game will be shown live on DAZN from 1.15 a.m. on Tuesday night.
mySPOX user Becks23: After a sluggish start to the season with away defeats in Jacksonville and Detroit, the Patriots are getting more and more into the form one would expect from a Bill Belichick team; so New England could book a 38:31 victory in Chicago in week 7, which was tighter in the end than necessary.
The Patriots can therefore travel to Buffalo for the AFC East Division duel with the tailwind of four victories in a row. The biggest progress in the past month has been made by the offense around quarterback Tom Brady: After a hesitant start to the season, the unit has shown its full strength (rank 5 DVOA Offense) since the signing of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the return of Julian Edelman.
These personal details allow Brady to play a simpler short pass game as the focus of enemy defenses moves away from tight end Rob Gronkowski. The results are already visible with 38+ points in each of the past four games. The very good Bills defense (rank 6 DVOA) will be occupied with a mixture of short pass and downfield elements.
Gordon and Hogan will attack the aggressiveness of the Secondary (No. 1 in Interceptions) and limit its support for the Linebacker Corps. The good O-Line (9th according to PFF) will be able to protect against the pass rush of Khalil Mack Tom Brady after a convincing performance against the strong defensive line of the Bills (26 sacks/Rank 3). Gronkowski and Cannon (Right Tackle) are expected to play. The loss of Running Back Michel will be compensated by the Duo White/Barner.
On the other side of the ball, the Defense of the Pats was only half a yard away from throwing away a good performance against the Chicago Bears. It was also significant that safe interceptions were not caught and special team errors caused unfavourable field positions. These concentration errors cover a good performance of the defense.
Against the Bills Open, which with a DVOA of -53.2 percent represents the worst offensive production after seven weeks in the past 30 years, the Defense will show another good performance. Complex schemes will present Anderson or Peterman Post-Snap with major challenges, producing misreads and turnovers. In addition, the pass-rush against a weak O-line (rank 30 according to PFF) will generate enough pressure.
With a concentrated performance nothing stands in the way of a safe victory; nevertheless Buffalo should not be underestimated (see Vikings), especially with predicted 3 degrees and rain on Monday evening.
Adrian Franke (SPOX): I actually had to think longer about this Coin Toss. The general idea is to argue why Team A or Team B wins the game – it’s not that easy with the Bills this year. And it has become even more difficult over the last weeks, the matchup with the Patriots is a bit of a crowning achievement.
So, what hope is there for the Bills? Clearly, you have to start (and end) the argument for Buffalo over defense. Yes, the game against the Colts was a total flop, but I’m willing to dismiss it as a slip. The Bills will certainly have these games even more frequently, simply because the defense – you can see that with the respective teams year after year – was on the field for too long and no longer has confidence in their own offense. How could you?
Motivation should not be the problem at home against the Patriots at prime time, and the general trend of this Bills defense in the weeks before was actually very positive. Buffalo has the potential to cause problems with Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander on an offensive line, which has already led to a completely surprising victory in Minnesota.
Behind them, Matt Milano plays a very good season on the linebacker level, especially in coverage, and this also applies to the safety duo Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer – good conditions for the game against the Patriots with their many passes to slot receivers, running backs and tight ends. In Tre’Davious White Buffalo also has a number 1 corner, which caused Gronk a lot of problems last year and which could compete with Josh Gordon. At least that’s a good basis.
However, this basis must also be met and surpassed. Against the Colts, Buffalo could exert far too little pressure on Andrew Luck and was then also completely dismantled in the so far solid Run-Defense. None of this may happen against the Patriots, otherwise the Bills simply don’t have a chance.
Buffalo has the worst quarterback situation and the worst passing game in the NFL, and it’s hard to imagine Derek Anderson causing even rudimentary problems to the Patriots through the air. In fact, the Bills would have a better chance in this game with Josh Allen, as New England is once again having a hard time with quarterback scrambles.
So the only real hope is the run game – and here possibly Chris Ivory, LeSean McCoy shouldn’t get fit in time or only be able to play limited. Ivory had his best games of the season, even though he often came with the ball and was the clear lead-back. The Patriots on the other side allow 4.6 yards per run, the ninth highest value. So here’s the approach for Buffalo’s offense.