Six games, five defeats – the Houston Rockets’ start to the season was a complete failure. There are many reasons for this, but it is not easy to find solutions. The Rockets are courting reinforcements from the far north – and have statistics on their side.
It is an unusual sight that the Western Conference table reveals a good two weeks after the tip-off of the new season. Admittedly not at the top, where the champion from the Bay Area sits enthroned in his usual dominant manner. But on the other side of the table spectrum.
In the cellar of the West there are two teams with one victory each: The Suns – similar to the Dubs not very surprising – and the Rockets. The team that had the best record of the NBA in 2017/18 and that demanded a close seven-game battle from the Warriors in the Conference Finals. This team currently moves on the level of the Suns …
James Harden, Chris Paul and Co. have a more than meager record after the first six games. A win against the Lakers has already resulted in five defeats. And what at first glance seems rather worrying does not improve on closer inspection. In three of the five bankruptcies, the rockets were swept out of the hall with a difference of at least 15 points – this was also the case three times in 2017/18, mind you during the entire season.
“Last year we played good basketball. But at the moment we’re playing absolute garbage together,” Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni announced after the new 85:104 debacle against the Blazers a few days ago.
“We just don’t play well,” the 67-year-old said afterwards. “I don’t have a lot of answers for you right now. We’ll look into it and we’ll fight.”
During the detailed analysis, D’Antoni and his coaching staff should take a look at the defense. Calculated on 100 ball possessions, Houston is currently losing 113.3 points, 24th place in the Association. Last season the Rockets were one of the best defences of the NBA.
The biggest question marks of the summer seem to be confirmed by the rockets so far. For various reasons, Houston could not or did not want to hold Trevor Ariza (Suns) or Luc Mbah a Moute (Clippers) in the Free Agency.
Many experts then wondered how the rockets would replace these losses. Both had undoubtedly a big part in the strong defense of the Rockets. Both are missed enormously at the beginning of the season and it is still not clear how they will be replaced.
Because that’s easier said than done. In this context, another departure in the off-season should not be underestimated: that of Jeff Bzdelik. The former assistant coach of D’Antoni hung up his tactical board shortly before the start of the season and retired, the absence of the architect of the Rockets-Defense has been noticeable ever since.
Last year’s success of the Rockets was based on an enormously switch-friendly defensive. However, no adequate replacement was found for the departures, or the new arrivals did not hit as well as GM Daryl Morey had hoped.
James Ennis III, who was hired as a new starter on the three, was disappointed at first and then injured himself. About the defense of Carmelo Anthony, who in turn moved into the Starting Five for Ennis, we probably don’t have to say anything more at this point. And then there’s Michael Carter-Williams, who is defensively okay, but for his part hardly needs to be defended due to a lack of throw.
The opponents of Rockets 2018/19 have an excellent understanding of how to capitalize on precisely these weaknesses. The numerous switches – and the resulting mismatches – continue to be exploited mercilessly both at the perimeter and in the zone.
While every second NBA attacker can pass Melo anyway, the switches also pull the bigs out of the zone, often a smaller defender has to go against an opponent’s big – not a promising basis. Houston have accordingly allowed 59 points in the zone per game so far.
D’Antoni even admitted recently that the current system cannot necessarily continue: “We have to make some changes. This team is different from last year’s.”
A few days later, however, D’Antoni put his statement into perspective. The focus must be on improved communication and execution. After all the Rockets presented themselves in the last game against the Trail Blazers somewhat improved. In the first quarter Damian Lillard and Co. was even held at only 19 counters. And yet Houston was lagging behind.
The offense of the Texans is in a similar catastrophic state at the beginning of the season. Against Portland, for example, Houston sunk 32.3 percent out of the field, from downtown the rate was even more miserable (10/43 threes, 23.3 percent). In a league-wide comparison, the rockets also lie in the table cellar in these categories – and this is the biggest surprise in view of the quality that still exists.
Not very helpful, of course, was the suspension for Paul, who after a brawl with Rajon Rondo had to watch two games from the side line. And the failure of Harden is not helpful either. Last year’s MVP injured his thigh against Utah and missed the next two games. How long The Beard will be missing is not yet certain, although a return against Brooklyn in the night on Saturday at least was not ruled out.
Harden is urgently needed to bring the Offense back to life. Because the second big question mark from the summer has also proved to be a shot in the oven in this respect. Melo, as Ariza “substitute”, has so far scored 13.2 points with a quota of 37.3 percent (by far the worst value of his career).
In depth the team is significantly worse positioned than last year, especially since some of the newcomers like Isaiah Hartenstein or Marquese Chriss still have to find each other, enormous potential is carried by the stars but of course still there. The Rockets must therefore hope that Harden will return to the floor as fit as possible as soon as possible – or that they will still be able to make the big break on the trade market.
Houston has long been regarded as a hot contender for Jimmy Butler, and a recent bid of four first-round picks for the Timberwolves’ willing shooting guard caused a stir.
Currently the Rockets seem to be light years away from a serious title run at the end of the year. But with Butler? Should Morey actually pilot Jimmy Buckets to Texas, Houston’s prospects could change abruptly.
Nothing is lost after the messed up start to the season, the Rockets still have 76 games left to turn around the rudder, even if you can’t afford to be too far behind the playoffs in the Western Conference, which is expected to be fiercely contested.
“We’ll solve our problems, but we have to play better. The sooner the better,” D’Antoni also knows. “I’ll check with our statistics department, but I think we still have a chance mathematically.”
After all, the humour hasn’t been lost in Houston despite the tense table situation.