When the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers meet at the Sunday Night Game in Week 13 (Monday at 2:20 live on DAZN), there will be a duel between two old companions whose journey is expected to end in the Hall of Fame. For Ben Roethlisberger as well as for Philip Rivers the focus in a strong season is first of all on reaching the playoffs.
The draft class of the 2004 vintage was a very special one. Perhaps she has even set the bar for quarterback production to this day: With Eli Manning (1st pick), Philip Rivers (4th) and Ben Roethlisberger (11th), three quarterbacks left the draft board in the first round, who spent their 14-year NFL careers with only one team.
Manning and Roethlisberger have already crowned their showcase careers by winning Super Bowls. An honor that Rivers has not yet received. The quarterback, who was handed over from the New York Giants to the San Diego Chargers in the 2004 draft, has been known throughout his career for a great offensive production, as well as high turnover numbers.
Since the Chargers’ move from San Diego to Los Angeles and the simultaneous arrival of head coach Anthony Lynn, Rivers seems to be paying far more attention to the ball. The prospects for the postseason are as great as they have been for a long time. Rivers, fifth in the AFC, would have to play with the Chargers in the wild card round of the Pittsburgh Steelers according to the current playoff picture.
So the duel in the night on Monday could be a preview of an encounter in January.
Philip Rivers eliminates his greatest weakness
Sometimes he still gets away with it. Like in Week 11, when Rivers tried the impossible with a 2nd&20 and a bad snap and threw a long pass towards Keenan Allen against pressure and in a sloping position. Broncos corner Chris Harris intercepted Rivers’ inaccurate pass and punished the veteran for his risky approach, which so often resulted in an expensive bill in his career.
For two years now, however, Rivers has been taking less and less risk and making the conservative decision even in difficult situations. The week before, he set an NFL record with 25 successful passes in a row. One of them was a checkdown at 2nd&20, when he just refrained from forcing the impossible. So it happens that the quarterback threw 16 interceptions in L.A. in two years, after there were 21 in 2016 alone.
Rivers’ Gunslinger mentality shaped his career. She has repeatedly put the Chargers in promising situations and also into trouble: In 13 seasons as a starter, Rivers had only three negative results with the Chargers. Nevertheless, they only made it to the postseason five times, each time without reaching the Super Bowl. More frequently, the shadow-side of the Playcaller predominated here.
MVP races: Philip Rivers with outsider chances
The 2018 season should not only bring the first playoff move since 2013, but also a bit more. Rarely has Rivers had such a strong supporting cast at his side as in this season, on the offensive side as on the defensive side. It seems that he has discarded one of his greatest weaknesses at exactly the right time and is now blossoming to the full. He plays so hard that Rivers is mentioned in MVP discussions.
The 36-year-old is well on his way to becoming the third quarterback after Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to score at least 4,000 passing yards in ten seasons. He is only 881 yards short for this in the last five games of this year. Rivers also ranks fourth in Touchdown Passes – and he’s hitting all these numbers while posting the best completion percentage (69.5) and the lowest interception rate (1.7) of his career.
The eternal opponent Roethlisberger also has a lot of respect for this. “He’s an MVP caliber playing at an MVP level,” says Big Ben about Rivers. “What he did last week was spectacular: 25 passes in a row. But it’s easy for him and fun to watch.”
While both quarterbacks have not yet won the MVP-Award, Roethlisberger already had two super bowl triumphs (XL, XLIII) to his credit. Rivers is still emulating him on this one. Now that he’s got his instincts under control and has achieved what he says he’s “tried for the whole of his career”, the summit may be closer than ever.
Ben Roethlisberger: Criticism of fellow players “part of my job”.
Roethlisberger was also familiar with the topic of turnovers during his career, but the Steelers were also successful with them over long distances. In the last two weeks, the 36-year-old’s serious mistakes almost caused two defeats at the same time. Slowly a little nervousness sets in, as already at the beginning of the season.
In a radio broadcast, Roethlisberger explained the two picks that had cost Pittsburgh the game in Denver the week before: Antonio Brown said a route had gone wrong, JuJu Smith shoemaker would have to pass the ball in every goal line situation. Rookie James Washington also got fat from a drop.
Asked about his statements, the quarterback reacted a little annoyed during the week and explained that it was his job as quarterback and captain to say such things. He doesn’t think it’s a problem, “but you’ll have to ask the others.”
Is it because of the lack of chemistry in the team that the Steelers are particularly worried about the Turnover this season? Only six teams gave the ball away more often, they all have a negative record, while Pittsburgh had won six consecutive games before the narrow defeat in Mile High.
The offensive potential also gives the Steelers hope for a first round bye-week in the playoffs despite a catastrophic turnover difference of -7.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Success with the Deep Passing Game?
Against the Chargers, however, you have to find your way back into the kick, and that against one of the stronger pass defenses of the league. According to the DVOA system of Football Outsiders, no team defends passes over a maximum of 15 yards in the air better. Just when short passes go on the outside lane, L.A. leaves little to be desired.
So Pittsburgh should try his luck with long passes. A tool that has surprisingly rarely led to success this season is the weapons that the team of head coach Mike Tomlin has at their disposal. The Chargers can be overcome here and the Steelers could then be successful with a lot of breakaway speed.
The basic requirement for this is that Pittsburgh O-Line keeps the pocket clean. With an approved pressure rate of 17.9 percent, the Steelers Line sets a new record in the league. But if someone does get through, there are problems: Roethlisberger is unhappy in pressure situations this season and has already caused several ball losses.
For Los Angeles, Joey Bosa’s two sacks last week should give confidence, but with the awareness that the Cardinal and Steelers O-Line will be league league league league and top of the league. The Chargers had trouble creating pressure this season. This could become a problem.
Los Angeles Chargers: How serious is Melvin Gordon’s failure?
On the other side of the ball the Chargers will have to manage without star-running back Melvin Gordon for the first time. But the absence of one of the most successful Red Zone weapons of the season may not turn out to be as dramatic as some have suspected.
Backup Austin Ekeler, described by his coach as “the team’s physically strongest player,” has an even better success rate than Gordon (57 to 54 percent). And that’s not all: Ekeler also breaks through more tackles than Gordon in percentage terms – a factor that can play a significant role against the weak tackling of the Steelers this season.
An interesting duel could also be imminent in the matter of Play-Action-Usage. The Chargers are one of the best play-action teams of the current season, making an average of 9.2 yards per pass. But no team defends Play Action better than Pittsburgh: The Steelers only allow 5 yards per pass.
And Pittsburgh likes to flash. According to ESPN Stats & Information, in 37 percent of all snaps, the Steelers send at least five of their defenders toward the quarterback, more often than any other team. This can quickly lead to problems with a less mobile quarterback like Rivers. Anyway, the Steelers sense their chance when the opposing Playcaller Under Center is standing. Here, a negative DVOA value of -19.3 percent is forced, while Pittsburgh’s Defense from the shotgun allows a DVOA of 7.5 percent.
Chargers still with chances of the AFC West Crown
The Chargers have only won one of 15 away games in Pittsburgh. Should Rivers keep his nose in front this time, he will move even closer to the top group of the MVP race. Especially after New Orleans’ defeat in Dallas.
But above all, the game will have a big impact on the playoff race: The Steelers and Chargers are two out of four teams in the AFC with three defeats and although L.A. are playing such a successful season, the Chargers really have no one on their hands at the moment. The AFC seems to go over the old acquaintances year after year. New England and Pittsburgh will again show their familiar faces when December begins.
And then there’s the reason why L.A., despite the formidable record of 8 wins and 3 defeats, is only second in the AFC West and probably enters the postseason without a home advantage: the Kansas City Chiefs (9-2).
But with their second away win with the Steelers after 2012, the Chargers would still have a chance of a final for the Division win over the Chiefs in Week 15. Rivers would also remain in the race for the MVP Award and would continue to work to follow the same path as his classmates: Hand in hand towards the Hall of Fame.