The fight for the No. 1 pick could be more exciting this season than it has been for a long time. SPOX does the check for the last weeks of the season: Who can get the highest chance of winning the main prize?
Tanking is not welcome, even the Commissioner does not like to talk about this topic. Behind closed doors, the problem was addressed and a minor reform of the draft lottery came out, which will only take effect next season. Ultimately, the probabilities were slightly adjusted, which is supposed to make it less attractive.
However, this does not apply to the current season, in which a historically exciting race runs with the greatest probability of catching the first pick. For the All-Star Break there are six (!) teams that have scored a league minus of 18 victories. There are currently no fewer than seven teams with less than 33 percent of successful matches, which has not been the case for almost ten years.
At the end of the season, a win may decide whether a team owns 25 percent of the balls in the lottery or only 4.3 percent. In a league where stars are essential for success, this can determine the fate of a franchise for years. However, to match the wrangling for the best position in the lottery, the draft after the strong vintage year 2017 seems to be excellently equipped with top and bottom again.
Last summer it was the numerous guards who caused a hype, this time it was bigs like DeAndre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke) or Mohamed Bamba (Texas) who attracted attention. Luka Doncic is also a huge talent from Europe and Trae Young (Oklahoma) could enter the league with a lot of momentum.
Stats: OffRtg: 102.8 (26.), DefRtg: 105.6 (13.), NetRtg: -2.8 (21.)
Strength of Schedule:. 502 (Lightest opponents: Hawks, Mavs 2x, Magic, Kings 2x)
The Lakers don’t hold their fate in their own hands. If the pick falls between 2 and 5, the right to select moves to Boston, otherwise the sixers can choose what it looks like instead of the lakers.
It is true that the Lakers met Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. two solid players, but with Isaiah Thomas I will get a star who will give full throttle with regard to his Free Agency in July. It will be interesting to see how coach Luke Walton distributes the minutes when the injured Lonzo Ball returns. It is quite conceivable that both could also be on the court at the same time.
That Thomas was in LA. extended, appears to stand now, but not realistic. According to some reports, the Lakers have written off the Free Agency in 2018, but who knows what will happen if LeBron James actually leaves Cleveland and considers the glamour franchise. In the meantime, however, the Lakers will win a few more games and enter the no-man’s-land of the Western Conference.
Forecast: Pick between 8 and 11
Stats: OffRtg: 103.7 (23.), DefRtg: 106.6 (18.), NetRtg: -2.9 (23.)
Strength of Schedule:. 514 (Lightest opponents: Mavs, Magic 2x, Kings, Bulls, Hornets)
Yes, the Knicks have lost Kristaps Porzingis through a rupture of the cruciate ligament as well as eight games in a row (negative record at the moment). But they have already won 23 games, mainly in the calendar year 2017. This does not make it easy to advance in the lottery ranking, as the teams behind the Knicks will certainly not win many more games.
Nevertheless, the Knicks have been doing a lot of things right since the Latvian injury. Michael Beasley feels like he can take any roll and Rookie Frank Ntilikina’s playing time has also risen steadily. Youngsters such as Isaiah Hicks, Daymean Dotson and Luke Kornet also saw minutes.
But what role does coach Jeff Hornacek play? The front office of the Knicks did strengthen the trainer’s back, but after the season everything should be put to the test. If Hornacek has to fight for his job, he could try to squeeze some more victories out of the team.
Forecast: Between 5 and 8
Page 1: Probabilities, the outsiders
Page 2: The persecutors
Page 3: The favorites