The New England Patriots had to cope with a not unexpected but nevertheless serious bloodletting in the ongoing Free Agency. Several pillars of the team were let go and this quickly caused discomfort in parts of the fan base in Foxboro. But this is inappropriate, as New England follows a tried and tested pattern.
Malcolm Butler may have made a mistake – of whatever nature – around the Super Bowl. But he was also the most stable Patriots-Cornerback over the last years and is an excellent Man-Cover-Corner.
Danny Amendola is getting on in years, no question. In the playoffs, however, he has shown several times, including last season, that Tom Brady and the Patriots can count on him when it counts.
Nate Solder is not a top five tackle, but he is a solid, reliable player in a position where these attributes are particularly important. And he has now been Brady’s Blindside Protector for several years, including last season, when New England built in more downfield concepts and Brady needs even better protection given his age.
And Dion Lewis? Along with Rob Gronkowski, this was the biggest mismatch weapon in New England. A running back that can also cause serious damage as a receiver and can be used in various positions. Using pre-snap motion, he was able to help uncover coverages while at the same time becoming an increasingly better runner.
All four of these players are gone. Lewis and Butler signed in Tennessee, Amendola with division rivals Miami and Solder went to the Giants. A uniform pattern for all four: All of them collect a lot more from their new teams than they would have received in New England.
A little more detailed: Amendola gets more in Miami next season than in several years combined in the Pats, Butler is paid like a number one corner and the Giants have just made Solder the best paid offensive lineman of the NFL.
On the one hand, these are reflections of the market – especially in the offensive line there was not much to get – but on the other hand they are also an annual free agency phenomenon: good players who come onto the market are overpaid.
The Patriots are a team that likes to sit out in this game.
There is no doubt that last season was an exception here, as New England landed one of the biggest free agency fish of 2017 in Cornerback Stephon Gilmore a year ago. This year, however, one sees nothing but a free agency approach, as Bill Belichick would like it to be: characterized by patience and cleverness.
You can safely assume that the Patriots will be at the top of this year’s Compensatory Draft Picks. This is partly because of the expensive contracts that the ex-patriots got elsewhere, but also because New England has hardly strengthened itself on the free market.
With Adrian Clayborn the urgent Edge construction site was addressed, Running Back Jeremy Hill and Tackle Matt Tobin are inexpensive rotary players. Since not only the salary but also the working time is included in the Compensatory formula, New England will clearly come out on the plus side.
This approach goes hand in hand with Belichick’s preference for trades, which also became impressively visible last year – and trades, a nice addition, do not count in the Compensatory formula. With Kony Ealy, Dwayne Allen and Brandin Cooks, Belichick struck three times last spring, the same number is already coming to New England this year. And the reinforcements make almost frighteningly much sense.
The recent trade for Cordarrelle Patterson suggested that Matthew Slater would leave the team. Instead, New England managed to hold Slater as well and so the Patriots not only have the probably best Kick-Returner of the league in Patterson. Slater and Patterson together are without question the best gunner duo in the NFL.
Hardly any team attaches as much importance to the Special Team as Belichick and the Patriots, the approach here underlines this. Trade should have a similar impact on Danny Shelton: Shelton gives the Patriots a massive presence on the defensive line, a player who creates space and holds his position.
In the Brown’s scheme this was no longer in demand, with the Patriots it is exactly what New England needs in the Interior Line. Shelton and Malcolm Brown will make it very difficult for opponents to run through the middle in the coming season. Shelton and Clayborn were to provide significantly more stability and gap control in the 4-3 base front, one of the central specifications under Belichick.
Third in line is Jason McCourty. Not only will he be joined by his brother – Patriots-Safety Devin McCourty -, McCourty also had a very good season in Cleveland. He’s a different cornerback type from Malcolm Butler, but for much less money he should fit in the number two role behind Gilmore.
All this should of course not hide the fact that the Patriots still have construction sites. The tackle position is at the top of the priority list, especially if New England fails to hold at least one of its own free agent tackles, Cameron Fleming and LaAdrian Waddle. The Pats have thrown 587 passes in the last Regular Season, the seventh highest value.
The 84 approved QB hits, on the other hand, rank in midfield (rank 18), which can be attributed on the one hand to Brady’s excellent pocket behaviour, but on the other hand also to an improved offensive line over the course of the season. If the downfield game is to continue to have a similarly large share, New England’s offensive line will again have to belong in the upper third of the league.
The good news: In contrast to some previous years, however, New England has draft capital this time – and especially towards the end of the first round there could be some good tackle prospects. The Patriots have four picks in the first three rounds, including 31 and 43 overall.
The other retirements, however, will be less offensive than you might think at first glance. Julian Edelman’s comeback even offers an upgrade via Amendola and gives Brady back his most important receiver, with which he has better chemistry and tuning than with any other passport catchers.
Lewis is caught up with a combination of Rex Burkhead – who has just signed a new contract – and Jeremy Hill. Lewis’ and Amendola’s roles in the return game are captured by Patterson.
And so the pats are worse individually than three weeks ago, there is hardly any doubt about that. However, under Belichick, it has never been the approach to be the league’s strongest individual team. The division of this year’s salary cap confirms this, more importantly it is that the corresponding roles – including defensive gap control, offensive option routes after correct reading of the defense – are reliably executed.
All in all New England goes into the draft with some concrete Needs, tackle and linebacker certainly belong to it. But the situation in Foxboro is already far from the level of panic that some people would like to pass on to the patriots.