Last Monday Rafael Nadal again took over the top of the ATP world rankings. He benefited from Roger Federer’s defeat in the final against Borna Coric in Halle. But the lead could change again after Wimbledon.
While Nadal is ranked number two in Wimbledon despite ATP top position, Roger Federer is allowed to lead the tableau. The Swiss was honoured by the organisers for his outstanding achievements on grass over the past few years and was given preference over his Spanish arch-rival.
Nadal is currently 50 points ahead of Federer in the ranking. The latter is the defending champion in the All England Lawn and Tennis Club, so he has 2,000 points to defend. Nadal reached the round of 16 last year, so 180 points will be deducted.
If the Mallorcan reaches the last 16 again, Federer will not have a chance to reach the number one in a ninth Wimbledon triumph. Federer must therefore hope that the Wimbledon champion of 2008 and 2010 will fall over early.
In addition, Federer can only become number one if he wins the tournament. Even in a final, the 36-year-old would miss 680 points in Nadal’s first-round defeat.
The fight for second place in the world rankings is also exciting. As Federer has 2,000 points to defend, Alexander Zverev or Juan Martin del Potro could become the first number two outside the big four (Nadal, Federer, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic) in 13 years. At that time, Lleyton Hewitt was the first pursuer.
Zverev dropped 180 points from the standings, last year he lost five sets in the round of 16 to Milos Raonic. Del Potro lost clearly against Ernests Gulbis in the second round, so he is missing 45 points from last year.
This means that if Federer fails before the third round, Zverev will be number two in the final. Should the German win the tournament, Federer may not reach the final.
Del Potro needs a tournament win and Federer’s defeat before the quarter-finals to become number two. Nadal has no chance of slipping to third or worse place.
Marin Cilic, who is currently ranked fifth and seeded third in Wimbledon, has no chance of winning the number two. The Croatian has 3,860 points on his account before the tournament, so he could only reach 5,860 points if he wins the tournament, which would not be enough to overtake the Swiss even in Federer’s first round defeat.