Led by their outstanding defence, the Jacksonville Jaguars were one of last season’s big surprises and made it to the AFC Championship game. The next step will now follow in the coming season. However, the course, which became clear in summer, is surprising. Can the franchise succeed with its unconventional strategy?
Just a year ago Calais Campbell had to publicly justify his decision to leave the Arizona Cardinals in the Free Agency and join the Jacksonville Jaguars. Campbell must be all about money, some critics say. Success obviously plays no role for him.
“I think the rest of the world doesn’t see Jacksonville the way I do,” Campbell explained back then. “I think Jacksonville is getting close.” With three victories and 13 defeats last year, Campbell’s mockery was not long in coming. But: About twelve months later, no one laughs anymore.
The Jaguars were no longer “close at hand” last season, their defense not only won games, it dominated them. Jackson, like Cornerback AJ Bouye, hit as a newcomer like a bomb. 21 interceptions (second in the league) and 55 bags (also second) impressively illustrate the aggressiveness of the unit, with a register rating of 68.5 Jacksonville permitted by far the lowest of the entire NFL. By way of illustration: Los Angeles Chargers in fourth place in this category scored almost 10 points more.
According to Football Outsiders, the Jaguars were not only the best defence in the league, but the defence against the pass was historically good. An unbelievable fact: In the NFL, which is actually dominated by the pass, an attempt to rush against any (!) franchise in 2017 would have been on average more promising than an attempt to pass against Campbell, Bouye, Jalen Ramsey and Co.
Within a year, the Jaguars had changed from being a laughing stock for years into one of the hottest teams in the league. After the close end of the AFC Championship game the course seemed to be set for the future, the priorities for the offseason were actually clear. What seemed to be missing from the team’s great success was a more variable offense. It needed a stronger passing game, so a better quarterback and a real number one receiver.
For many observers, the Jaguars not only had the recipe for a successful off-season, they were even sitting at the set table. Because: Allen Robinson, who missed the entire 2017 season due to an injury due to a cruciate ligament rupture, already had the missing X-Receiver in the team. With its size and speed, Robinson is a real downfield weapon that can also win in one-on-one duels. Exactly the type of player to punish the eight-man boxes, of which Jacksonville had seen more last year than any other team.
In addition, the Jaguars seemed in an excellent position not only to part with Quarterback Blake Bortles relatively painlessly, but also to enter the race directly for a better signal caller. Kirk cousins? Case Keenum? Alex Smith? Sam Bradford? Teddy Bridgewater? The jaguars would simply not be able to resist this temptation to build an almost completely redesigned passing open. Right? Wrong!
What followed was an Offseason Jacksonville’s, which was much, but not one thing: expectable. Instead of bidding on cousins or at least engaging a capable competitor with Bortles, the franchise extended the contract with its quarterback for another three years before the start of the Free Agency and thus tied itself at least in the medium term to its qualities. Instead of keeping Robinson by contract extension or franchise day, they signed a moderate deal with the Chicago Bears and instead hired Andrew Norwell, the most expensive Interior Offensive Lineman of this year’s Free Agency. And instead of looking for a new weapon in the draft for the passing game, Taven Bryan was chosen as the defensive tackle to add depth to the already shiny defensive line.
So did the Jaguars blow up the summer? Did they trust the wrong tactics, the wrong philosophy? That remains to be seen. Did they rely on an unusual strategy? In any case.
While almost the entire league continues to fall more and more under the passing trend, General Manager David Caldwell and Executive Vice President Tom Coughlin apparently rely on the exact opposite. Instead of a popular quarterback or a star receiver, a guard has become this summer’s big fish in Jacksonville. Andrew Norwell is symbolic of the new philosophy in Florida.
Last season, the Jaguars focused more on the run game than any other NFL team. 527 runs were also top of the league as well as 2262 rushing yards. However, with 1.2 yards before contact per carry, Jacksonville ranked among the weaker teams of the NFL. One of Norwegian’s main tasks should be to increase this number in the coming season.
With Brandon Linder and Norwell, Jacksonville now has one of the best interior line duo in the league. It is no coincidence that both became top earners at the time of signing their contracts. Cam Robinson is also a highly athletic left tackle, who revealed problems in pass protection in his rookie season as expected, but has everything he needs to become a dominant run blocker. It should come as no surprise to anyone when the Jaguars run the ball behind their trio on the left side of the offensive line in critical situations in the coming season.
As promising as the combination of the dominant Interior Offensive lines and Power Back Leonard Fournette may be, the big question that will occupy the Jaguars in the coming season is probably the same question that Jacksonville accompanied during last year: Does the offense have enough quality to relieve and support their own run game through the air?
As early as 2017, opposing Defensive Coordinators sent an additional defender near the line of scrimmage against Jacksonville more often than against any other team in the league. Whether the Jaguars will be able to counteract this trend in the coming year is still doubtful. Number one receiver Marqise Lee has two solid years behind her, but is by no means the deep threat that could punish an aggressive defense. Throughout his entire NFL career, Lee caught just 12 passes for 30 or more yards. The migrated Robinson came on 21 such catches in 2015 alone. Newcomer Donte Moncrief is more like this skill set, but over the last two seasons the former Colts receiver has combined (!) less than 60 matches and 700 receiving yards.
In addition, Bortles remains a big question mark as quarterback. The 26-year-old did indeed play a solid season in 2017, but even in this season he made some hair-raising mistakes (the 24-27 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals sends greetings) and seemed to enjoy so little confidence from his own coaches that some of them were satisfied with half-field reads and designed short passes for their quarterback in the game plan. All the more astonishing that the franchise now seems to be betting on the former number-three pick for at least another two years.
While the offense could face the same problems as in the pre-season, the team’s big showpiece, the dominant defense, threatens to waver at least a little.
Defensive Coordinator Todd Wash’s unit continues to look great, with virtually every position – except for the safeties – being staffed with pro-bowl or even all-pro calibre players. With Campbell, Ramsey, Bouye, Malik Jackson, Telvin Smith and Yannick Ngakoue, six players were voted into the Pro Bowl last season.
However, it is doubtful that Jacksonville will reach this level of dominance in the defense in 2018. On the one hand, “Sacksonville” was almost completely spared from injuries during the entire 2017 Regular Season. A circumstance on which one cannot rely at all in the NFL. Although the Jaguars also have an impressive depth in the defensive line, there is no doubt that a failure of cornerstones such as Campbell, Ramsey, Bouye or Smith would at least weaken the defensive framework a little.
In addition, Wash also has to cope with and compensate for the losses of two service providers. With Nickelback Aaron Colvin, one of the best slot corners of the pre-season joined the Houston Texans. That newcomer DJ Hayden can close this gap on an equal footing is doubtful at this point in time.
The loss of Middle Linebacker Paul Posluszny, who announced the end of his career in the summer, is likely to weigh in similarly heavily. Although the 33-year-old was no longer part of the nickel and dime packs last season, he was only on the field for 520 snaps throughout the season (the linebackers Smith and Myles Jack both played more than 1000 snaps), but as a solid run and good zone defender Posluszny also contributed to what appears to be the NFL’s best defense in 2017, and the new man for this role now seems to be Blair Brown, five-lap pick of the Jaguars 2017. After he was only allowed to play 48 snaps in the pre-season, it remains to be seen how quickly he will be able to fill Posluszny’s footsteps.
These question marks are not surprisingly detrimental to the Jaguars’ self-confidence. “I think we’re gonna make it 16:0. I predict it: 16:0”, Malik Jackson already sounded before the start of the training camp. “I don’t think anyone can beat us as long as we stay healthy and do what we’re supposed to do.”
Both the management and the players in Jacksonville continue to trust in their own strengths and believe in their own philosophy. The defense should dominate another year, the run game should carry the offense at the same time.
The Jaguars are definitely not smiled at anymore. Campbell was right. It remains to be seen, however, whether the strategy pursued can actually lead to a very big success.