ATP: Will Roger Federer get number 1 in Dubai?

Thanks to his renewed triumph in Melbourne, Roger Federer has come close to Rafael Nadal. In four weeks, he could be number one in the tennis world again.

Nadal 9760, Federer 9605 – these are the current numbers, so Federer is only 155 points behind Nadal. The Swiss player did not gain any points in Melbourne, but defended his 2000 points from the previous year. In contrast to Nadal: 1200 points, the Spaniard had won last year’s final, this time only 360 points because of his injury-related task in the quarter-finals. Federer is once again at the top position, which he last occupied in November 2012 and for a total of 302 weeks.

The week of 26. February will be: Rafael Nadal made it to the final in Acapulco last year (500s tournament) and scored 300 points. Nadal is planning another appearance, but due to his injury he will not be able to resume training for another two weeks at the earliest. Is that enough for Acapulco? If not, it’s clear: Federer would be back on the 5th day. March, the world’s number 1, the oldest world number one of all time.

Independently of Nadal’s Acapulco appearance, Federer can also grab the one himself – for example at the parallel event in Dubai. The ATP-500 tournament at Federer’s second home is considered one of his favourite tournaments, winning a total of seven times, most recently in 2015. In the previous year, however, he lost early against Evgeny Donskoy. For 2018, the Melbourne winner hasn’t signed up, but a wildcard seems to be waiting.

“We were in talks, but then the tournament started,”said Federer after his victory in Melbourne,”I asked if it was okay to decide. That’s always ideal, I can see – if I had to play seven times over five sets, I’m hurt…” Now you know the situation, a decision about the clay court season would soon be coming up “It’s possible that I’m playing something, but also that it’s not. If Federer should miss Dubai, he could reach the top again without having to play: Nadal has to reach at least the semi-finals in Acapulco to defend his cushion on Federer.

If it doesn’t work out with the new lead in the world rankings, much depends on Federer’s performance in Indian Wells and Miami. There he won both titles last year (and scored the maximum of 2000 points), Nadal made it to the last sixteen in Indian Wells and to the final in Miami, losing both times against Federer.

No matter how the rest of the winter season progresses, the race is likely to remain close afterwards. Nadal had scored 4680 points on sand in the previous year, while Federer skipped the clay court tour completely. If Nadal doesn’t clear up like this again or Federer starts at least at some events, he could pass Nadal in spring.