ATP/WTA: Cincinnati and the US Open? It doesn’t always have to fit

Whoever wins in Cincinnati will also automatically pass easily as the big favourite at the US Open? This calculation has rarely worked out in recent years.

The combined ATP WTA event in Cincinnati is the last big assessment before the US Open, the fourth Grand Slam tournament of the year. If you’re in good shape in the state of Ohio, you’ll be playing for the title at the National Tennis Center in New York City a few days later. At least that is the common thesis.

In fact, however, only three players have managed to emerge victorious at the US Open since their triumph at the Masters in Cincinnati in 2003: Andy Roddick (2003), Roger Federer (2005 and 2007) and most recently Rafael Nadal.

Last year Grigor Dimitrov travelled to New York City with his first Masters 1000 title and high expectations, only to lose to Andrey Rublev in round two. Marin Cilic, Cincinnati Champion of 2016, didn’t fare much better: The Croatian lost in round three against Jack Sock.

In 2015 the prediction accuracy was closer: Federer and Djokovic contested the final in Cincinnati as well as at the US open, but with reversed results. The Swiss won the smaller tournament, Djokovic won the last major of the year.

The ladies have only been playing in Cincinnati since 2004, it looks even cloudier here: Only Kim Clijsters (2010) and Serena Williams (2014) have since made the historic double strike. Last year, Garbine Muguruza came to New York as the strongest player on the WTA tour, but for the Spaniard it was only enough for the round of 16. There Muguruza lost to Petra Kvitova.