MLB: SPOX Commentary on the MVP Election 2017: Most Valuable Player – for Who?

The BBWAA has awarded its MVP Awards to Jose Altuve and Giancarlo Stanton. The choice in the AL was clear, the one in the NL was wafer-thin. But were the winners justified? And according to which system is it chosen at all? Does all this make sense? A commentary by SPOX editor Marcus Blumberg.

MVP stands for Most Valuable Player. But how do we determine the value of a player? And above all: For whom is it the most valuable? This year’s MVPs of the MLB do not answer this question. Rather, they confirm the long-standing impression that this choice in baseball does not follow a clear concept and is completely arbitrary.

Looking at the election in the NL this year, one could argue that this was a continuation of the 00s tradition. The voters freed themselves from tabular constraints and simply chose the most dangerous slugger in Stanton. Its 59 homeruns and 132 RBI were the most in the MLB.

His Marlins? They missed out on the divisional win by 20 games – the second wildcard by 10! Joey Votto from the Cincinnati Reds finished second in the election. He played a statistically good, not an outstanding season. And his team was down 24 games in Division 24, in the 19 Wildcard. Of course, both teams were under. 500 in the season. Most valuable player of his team? Yes, applies to both. But the league? On what basis?

The election in the American League also seems amazing. All the time, the voters of these awards are also stamping out to people how important and relevant sabermetrics are, and that these analytical data prove the value of a player much better than, say, limited statistics such as the hit average.

And then those journalists with a head start in the industry choose Altuve as MVP. A player who, with the exception of a high hit average (. 346) and 204 hits in no metric, was the best this season. The clearly defeated Aaron Judge, on the other hand, led the AL in runs, homeruns and walks as high as a house, and was also in second place at OPS – with almost 100 points more than Altuve.

But these mass statistics are meaningless. So let’s look at modern numbers! Judge led the MLB with 8.2 Wins Above Replacement according to FanGraphs, Altuve had 7.5. In theory, Judge would have won eight more wins for his team, which a possible replacement would not have secured. Means: Without Judge the Yankees may only win 83 games and even have to fear for the wildcard. If the Astros lose Altuve, on the other hand, they still win the AL West with a double-digit lead.

However, WAR is different depending on the source, so let’s look at “Weighted Runs Created Plus”, which essentially calculates a player’s contribution to his team’s run independently of the ball park. Judge is 173 and 13 runs ahead of Altuve. This game can be continued and generally Judge will stand with better numbers.

How exactly does one justify then a lead of 126 points – or 25 first place votes – in the MVP election? Of course, one can rush to the month of August and say that Judge there only hit. 215, Altuve. 441, but is a month decisive for electing an MVP?

The bottom line is that it is always amazing how voters – who rotate every year – come to their conclusions. Sometimes they decide in favour of the simply best player, no matter what he achieves – you look at numerous MVP triumphs of the men’s Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols or Mike Trout – or you go with the best player of the year – for example Miguel Cabrera in his Triple Crown year 2012. Or you can just blindly vote in the blue and cling to statistics that have actually been discredited in the meantime. It is also possible to have the best player of the best team, as is usually the case in the NFL.

There is a lack of a clear line in the MLB’s choice of MVP. What was considered to be the benchmark last year no longer has to play a role this year. And nobody should be shocked if, for example, judges are elected in one or two years’ time, although they may have done significantly less than this year, because someone might think they had earned it by 2017. Mike Trout came to the MVP last year.

I do not go so far as to say that the MVP election is a farce, but it makes too little sense. The definition seems too vague. The most valuable player – but valuable in what way? Valuable to whom?

This article was published without prior view by the Major League Baseball.