NFL: Third and Long: Free Agency – Winners and Losers, Tops and Flops

The first hot phase of the Free Agency is over, of the very big fish only Ndamukong Suh is still on the market. High time for a first comprehensive interim conclusion: In his column, SPOX editor Adrian Franke looks at some very good and some too expensive obligations, as well as at potential steals. The Patriots, the Browns, the Texans and the Seahawks, among others, are the subject of a detailed mailbag.

You also want to ask questions to the SPOX-NFL column? This goes directly to the author!

Contract: 3 years, 84 million Dollar, 84 million guaranteed

Yes, cousins were expensive – but not as horrendously expensive as was sometimes suspected. Minnesota have not put on any long-term handcuffs with regard to the rest of the squad, and the bottom line is that they have chosen cousins for the next three years. No more, no less.

For the Vikings, this is the best chance to give a Contender squad the best possible chance of winning the title. Keenum, for example, would have been cheaper – with cousins you pay the “tax” for proving himself over several years and under various conditions and representing the safer option. Going all-in now – Sheldon Richardson’s deal also falls into this category – is the right decision for Minnesota.

Contract: 3 years, 42 million Dollar, 25.2 million guaranteed

As already written: I am a big fan of the Bears Offseason so far. If you committed yourself to a quarterback – even for the teams that will do so this year – and got it through an expensive draft trade, you’d be stupid if you didn’t give him the best possible chance of success. The quarterback is by far the most important player and the only position where any team without a top 12 candidate is permanently on the lookout.

Chicago had left Trubisky out in the rain far too often last season, that is changing now. Under Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich I expect a modern offensive marked by run pass options and play action, which emphasizes Trubisky’s strengths. Robinson was already one of the league’s most dangerous play action receivers in Jacksonville at his best, while the new Bears tight-end Trey Burton has the versatility to fit out of run formations and run out of pass formations.

Contract: 3 years, 27.1 million dollars, 7 million guaranteed

The nature of the contract makes the risk for the Niners with regard to Sherman’s Achilles tendon injury more than manageable and everything else just fits too perfectly: San Francisco’s defensive coordinator Robert Saleh worked as a defensive co-trainer in Seattle from 2011 to 2013, the 49ers play a kind of the well-known Seahawks defense. Schematically, Sherman fits in perfectly while staying close to home – and will be extremely motivated to show it to Seattle in his own division. Not only with a view to the other cornerback deals of this Free Agency, the Niners could have managed a steal here.

Contract: 1 year, 5 million greenback

Wilkerson was ultimately a huge disappointment in New York. Instead of the hoped-for leader, he became a serious problem within the team after his major contract extension, was unpunctual, had a poor work attitude and violated team rules. The Packers now offer the ideal new start: A classic One-Year-Prove-It deal under Green Bay’s new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, who trained Wilkerson from the beginning of his NFL career and whose aggressive defense Wilkerson should feel comfortable in. This means: Low-Risk-High-Reward for the packers, who could suddenly offer one of the better defensive lines in the NFL.

Contract: 3 years, 27 million Dollar, 11.5 million guaranteed

Rarely in recent years have you seen a team with such painfully obvious deficits in the pass rush as Tampa. The second weakest pressure rate in the previous year (12.7 percent) was preceded in 2016 by the sixth weakest pressure rate without flashing. The Bucs have to become much more dominant with their 4 men front and Curry is by far the best defensive end available this year. Better days lie ahead of the Buccaneers.

Contract: 4 years, 62 million dollar, 34.8 million guaranteed

Yes, the tackle market was more than sparsely populated and there is no next homerun tackle in the draft either. The Giants were in urgent need of help for the offensive line, but they had to put a disproportionate amount on the table – Solder is now the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. At the same time, New York lost Richburg and Pugh in the middle of his line and lost out to Andrew Norwell, whose move to New York was virtually certain for weeks.

Contract: 5 years, 50 million dollars, 27 million guaranteed

No other player before the start of the Free Agency had me so wrong. I had predicted about half of that for lottery financially. A solid defensive tackle, no question; A player who creates space for linebackers. This has a certain value – without constant influence especially on the passing game, however, this value does not lie in the financial heights that Lotulelei is now collecting in Buffalo.

Contract: 5 years, 72.5 million Dollars, 45 million guaranteed

Johnson may have been the best cornerback on the market after Butler (although one can argue in another role for Robinson or Colvin) and his commitment increasingly gives the jets a defensive identity. But: Johnson is the type of player who can do a lot well but little at elite level. Added to this is the fact that he has too many dropouts for a cornerback. Not for nothing, according to Pro Football Focus, he admitted 759 yards in coverage last season, the fifth highest value of all cornerbacks. In the low season, A.J. Bouye the top cornerback on the market. Bouye received 26 million guaranteed by the Jags. The jets have massively overpaid here.

Contract: 2 years, 15 million Dollar, 13 million guaranteed

Jordy Nelson is still a solid Red Zone weapon, he showed that last season. But is he much more? Honestly, I don’t believe it – unless the Raiders see it as a potential physical slot receiver. Outside it lacks too clearly the explosiveness. I never dreamed that Nelson would still get a double-digit million amount after his release. If you want to make it positive: After last season’s drop debacles, Nelson Derek Carr gives at least a few safe hands.

Contract: 4 years, 30 million Dollar, 15.7 million Dollar guarantees

I understand why San Francisco did it: McKinnon can be an ideal complementary back in Kyle Shanahan’s offense – but does he have the quality for more? Can it perform constantly if it is the starter? In Minnesota he was rarely more than a role player, but the contract is enormous. The Niners have the Cap Space and have loaded the financial burden accordingly heavily forward. Nevertheless, this is a contract that McKinnon has to live up to for the time being.

Contract: 1 year, 7 million Dollar, 6.5 million Dollar guarantees

After Mathieu apparently categorically refused a salary cut in Arizona – according to consistent reports he would still have collected more than seven million dollars a year – the Texans succeeded in a very good deal: Mathieu will prove himself even more after the end at the cardinals and now want to recommend himself for a new deal.

With Watt, Clowney and Mercilus in front of him, Mathieu in Houston around the Line of Scrimmage could become the all-purpose weapon he was in Arizona on his best days. This also means: A dangerous speed camera, while Aaron Colvin, also newly signed, can take over the man coverage tasks in the slot, which recently caused Mathieu problems in Arizona again and again.

Contract: 1 year, 3 million Dollar, $300,000 guaranteed

In Tampa Baker flopped completely, but that he has the potential he could show before in Washington: seven sacks, eleven QB hits and 25 QB Hurries 2015 followed by six sacks, six QB hits and 30 Hurries 2016 – Baker has the potential to constantly affect the passing game from his interior spot. A core competence in today’s NFL. The Bengals could use such a presence next to Geno Atkins and if Baker found his Redskins form again, he would be an absolute bargain.

Contract: 1 year, 6 million Dollar, 1 million Dollar guarantees

The jets want a quarterback in the draft, that’s now clear. This makes Bridgewater’s commitment somewhat surprising, as Josh McCown would be an ideal interim solution before the rookie takes over. On the other hand: Bridgewater, if fit, has franchise quarterback potential and that puts the jets in a potentially exciting situation.

If you actually get the desired QB in the draft, Bridgewater could become a hot trade candidate. All the more so if a quarterback gets injured elsewhere during the preparation for the season. The jets have plenty of cap space, but had to buy the trade upwards with expensive picks. If you could get something back here, the deal would have been worth it. And Bridgewater’s contract is more than trade-friendly.

Page 1: Free Agency: Top deals, possible steals – and who was too expensive?

Page 2: Quarterback draft, Patriots, Houston, Cleveland, Seattle – your questions