MLB: Do the snakes lack the last bite?

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a strong start to the 2018 season, but then fell to a low in May. Since then, they have fought a three-way battle with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers for the crown of the National League West. A fight that turns into an almost hopeless challenge for the Snakes.

After reaching the playoffs again in 2017 for the first time since the beginning of the decade, the Arizona Diamondbacks entered the new season as one of the top teams. They did justice to this role over long stretches of the season, but the engine in the desert now seems to be stalling as it turns into the home stretch of all things.

The Diamondbacks took the lead in the National League West standings on a seven-match California trip. However, with a mixed feeling, they finally lost a home series against the Seattle Mariners 1-2.

Nevertheless, Manager Tory Lovullo’s team was allowed to approach the task with optimism, as the San Francisco Giants, the first stop of the trip, did not represent a great challenge on paper. But the reality was different: The Snakes lost the first two games and did not make a single run.

The pitching allowed for three runs, but without offense that doesn’t help much. However, the Snakes recovered a little and won the final against the Giants and the opening match against Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium. The latter was particularly important, as the Dodgers were and are probably the worst competitor for the crown in the West.

What followed, however, was one (later) low blow after another. The fact that all three following games ended 2:3 from Arizona’s point of view was not even the worst.

The games basically all went according to the same pattern: The D-backs started well and could rely on outstanding starting pitching – in the seven games on the West Coast, the D-backs starters got a terrific 1.62 ERA! But towards the end – every time!

The first time, starter Zack Greinke “screwed up” himself. Manager Lovullo simply left him in too long. After Greinke allowed the 2-2 draw in the seventh inning, Lovullo let the right-hander pitch the eighth inning as well. The result: Greinke also gave away the 3-2 lead for Los Angeles – a solo shot by Justin Turner! Arizona didn’t recover.

The following day Arizona followed the motto “things can always get worse”: Again, the Snakes took the lead early and even had a 2-0 lead until the eighth inning. This time Lovullo reached the bullpen early and got good performances from Yoshihisa Hirano, Brad Ziegler and T.J. McFarland until the end of the seventh.

The problem with such a heavy load on the bullpen, however, is that there is a chance that you might catch a pitcher who is not having a good day. This is what happened on Saturday: Archie Bradley (7.79 ERA in the second half of the season), an intoxicating beard enthusiast who weakened in the second half of the season, literally broke apart. He allowed two base runners and was then responsible for Matt Kemp’s 3-Run-Homerun for Los Angeles 3-2.

In order to crown the tragedy, Bradley finally gave Kemp’s walk-off RBI double for the third bankruptcy in a row on Sunday. That again, after Lovullo used a total of eight pitchers and Closer Brad Boxberger had taken out of play after only twelve pitches and two walks.

In seven away games the Diamondbacks scored only one more than two runs and finished road-trip 2-5, to top it all off they gave up the lead of the NL West and are only third.

After last year’s long play-off thirsty run had ended after a consistently strong season, but then failed due to a sweep of the Dodgers in the NLDS, the squad was screwed up in winter.

In December Relief Pitcher Hirano from Japan, Catcher Alex Avila joined in January and in February a trade for outfielder Steven Souza Jr. (Tampa Bay). In addition, another capable outfielder, Jarrod Dyson, was imported as a free agent. And that’s not all, because during the season the D-backs continued to arm themselves vigorously.

Pitcher Clay Buchholz came in May and is currently experiencing his second spring, and in July the bullpen was pimped up with Jake Diekman and returning Brad Ziegler, after Closer Boxberger was already fetched from Tampa Bay by trade in November. Finally Eduardo Escobar of the Twins came for the Infield.

So the team was constantly improved, especially to take on the Dodgers. At the start of the season this also worked brilliantly. They had a strong start to the season and won the first five matches against the Dodgers in a row. Together with the Rockies, they beat the top favourite.

But the picture changed rapidly. The Dodgers got better and better and the Diamondbacks went into a widespread crisis in May. At times they lost six and seven games in a row. The lead was gone.

Since then it has been a real hit and sting in the West, with constantly changing top riders. Sometimes it’s the Dodgers, sometimes the Rockies or Arizona. In early September, Colorado has the upper hand again. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers have the best chances for the playoffs.

The Dodgers’ chances of winning the West branch are 70.8 percent – playoff probability: 83.8 percent, while the D-backs only have a 9.4 percent chance of winning the division and 16.2 percent for wildcards. The main reason for this gloomy prognosis is simple: The remaining program is really hard.

In addition to five more games against West’s San Diego, there will only be duels with teams that will almost certainly make it into the playoffs and therefore have good scores. They face the really hot Braves four times, seven times against the Rockies – four of them in Denver – three times they still go to the champion in Houston and three times each against the Cubs and Dodgers. If snakes get out of there unscathed, that would be remarkable!

It doesn’t help that the D-backs have the fourth best run difference in the NL, which is usually a clear indicator of a successful season.

It threatens another failure on the way to the playoffs. Just like the last few years. Since their debut season in 1998, the Diamondbacks have managed to reach the playoffs twice in a row – in 2002 they defended their Western title, after having clinched their only World Series triumph to date in 2001.

Now the question inevitably arises how things will continue in the desert beyond 2018. The core of the team was now under team control at least until the end of 2019, although there will also be some well-known free agents, including outfielder A.J. Pollock and of course left-handed Patrick Corbin, who will certainly become one of the most expensive pitcher on the market. Superstar Paul Goldschmidt, on the other hand, can be held for an ultra-team-friendly $14.5 million by team option.

In total there are only 65 million dollars guaranteed on the payroll, which this year was over 131 million dollars at the beginning of the season, which was an all-time record for the still quite young franchise.

If you take a closer look at today’s team, you will notice that there is room for improvement on the offensive. Only Goldschmidt (143 OPS+), David Peralta (127 OPS+) and Pollock (104 OPS+) beat the league average this year – in addition to Escobar (113 OPS+) and utility Guy Daniel Descalso (111 OPS+), but too many regulars remained offensively clearly below their capabilities.

The pitching rotation, on the other hand, is the team’s great support. Above all Zack Greinke (147 ERA+) and Corbin (142 ERA+) stand out, with Buchholz towering over everything since his arrival (211 ERA+). And the bullion is also great from the overall figures, although the latest results of this picture are somewhat cloudy.

The Diamondbacks cannot and will by no means write off the rest of this season, they are too close to the top of the division and at least still within striking distance when it comes to wild cards. But at least in the quiet chamber one or the other official of the team should already think about how the future should be committed in case of failure.

The core of the team is good enough, as last year showed, but too many weak points could stand in the way. Vulnerabilities that probably cannot be resolved internally.

This article was published without previous view by the Major League Baseball.