NFL: Bears vs. Rams – the eternally young duel

The very basic principle in football has always been the comparison between offense and defense. When the Chicago Bears receive the Los Angeles Rams (Mo., 2.20 a.m. live on DAZN) in the Sunday Night Game of Week 14, this comparison will once again be in the spotlight. But what makes each unit so strong? And how relevant are defenses in today’s NFL at all?

If one believes the ratings of the FootballOutsiders, then in the matchup between the Bears and the Rams according to the statistics “Weighted Offense” or “Weighted Defense” the best defense meets the third best Offense. This category takes the “normal” DVOA values and weakens the knowledge from previous games of a season in order to attach more importance to the development of the recent past.

The Rams, who undoubtedly also have an explosive defense, are in the spotlight first and foremost thanks to their almost unstoppable offense. The Rams currently have the NFL’s best record of 11-1, mainly due to the showpiece of coach Sean McVay’s team, and are heading for Home Field Advantage in the playoffs.

The offense of the rams is mainly based on 11-personnel (one tight end, one running back) and therefore almost exclusively on 3-receiver sets. They play a version of this formation in 98 percent of their offensive snaps, by far the most in the league.

The one running back in the backfield is mostly Todd Gurley, which is one reason why the Rams are in 1st place according to DVOA (18 percent) when it comes to Rush-Offense. When it comes to passing the ball, you are still in 4th place with 41.4 percent.

The secret of this offense is not necessarily the formation at the line of scrimmage. Rather, this offense is based on the fact that the team can run numerous completely different moves from almost identical formations. From the predominantly used 11-personnel you can seamlessly play a fast hand-off, a draw, a jet sweep, a classic dropback or play action. Given the threat from Gurley, the latter is of course particularly effective.

On the other hand, the Bears are also played very frequently (84 percent of snaps) 11-personnel, which means that Chicago usually plays in a sub-formation with an additional nickel corner.

But that doesn’t stop them from shining at all levels of defense. Especially impressive – of course not in a nickel defense – is Chicago’s power success rate of 48 percent, which equals number 1 in the league. Power Success describes the effectiveness of third and fourth attempts to go with two or less yards. As “Success” for the Offense here either a First Down or a Touchdown is regarded.

In addition, Chicago allows only 0.95 2nd level yards (yards that score enemy running backs between 5 and 10 yards behind the LOS), good for 3rd place in the league. And at the Open Field Yards (more than 10 yards behind the LOS) they are the fifth best team with 0.42. So Todd Gurley will face a big challenge!

Only in the Pressure segment does Chicago still have some catching up to do. With their Adjusted Sack Rate of 7.6 percent they can be found in 9th place – even if their now 37 sacks mean 5th place in the league.

As chance would have it, the Ramsauf on the offensive side of the ball occupy 9th place in terms of pass protection – with an adjusted sack rate of 5.7 percent. Surprisingly, despite Gurley, the Rams have relatively little success in the power area – with 62 percent they are only ranked 21st! So they should avoid short yardage situations against Chicago as far as possible.

In 2nd level, however, they present their opponents from California with a considerable challenge: with 1.56 second level yards they are ranked 4th in the league – of course a direct effect of Gurley’s qualities! Beyond that, however, they are again only average (0.82 Open Field Yards/Rank 17).

The famous proverb “Offense wins Games, Defense wins Championships”, which is why the Rams will certainly be favoured for the upcoming duel, is not completely true in today’s NFL. Ultimately, however, it is equally stable defenses that can make the difference over a longer period of time.

In addition to the Bears, teams such as the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens, whose defensive performances have been instrumental in the success of the teams since the start of the season, should also be mentioned as examples.

The cowboys, for example, have brought the New Orleans Saints’ high-power offense to a standstill, underlining sixth place in Weighted Defense (-8.2 percent). Baltimore, which after a period of weakness has now moved up to second place on the wildcard thanks to Lamar Jackson’s new offensive approach, can even be found in fourth place in the league with a weighted defense of -10.2 percent.

The general insight from the defensive performances of the teams in question is, however, that you can also continue to be successful in the NFL with defense. Even in times of high-scoring openings everywhere, defensive lines can still make the difference and play a significant part in success – even in games where a lot of points were scored, such as the mad game between the Chiefs and Rams a few weeks ago, when the Rams Defense could simply force more decisive plays about pressure than the Chief’s Open.

Or let’s think back to the Super Bowl in February – the majority will think of the “Philly Special” or the numerous touchdowns of the Eagles in general, but Brandon Graham’s strip bag against Tom Brady won this game shortly before the end!

So one can be held: Defenses are currently at a difficult stage in the NFL – but they are still far from becoming irrelevant.