NFL: Third and Long: Optimism and Big Plays

The San Francisco 49ers may – with caution – have serious hopes that Jimmy Garoppolo is their long-term franchise quarterback. Josh Gordon’s second game in Cleveland offers promising approaches, while the Carolina Panthers actually only beat Minnesota with two big plays. Plus: The Saints Screen Game, the game winner of the Green Bay Packers, the Chargers’ Offense and much more in this issue of the SPOX-NFL column!

The dominant topic this week was of course the injury of Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback will miss the rest of the season with a ruptured cruciate ligament, throwing the NFC playoffs into disarray. In short: without Wentz, Philly will be the fourth or fifth-best team of the conference from the NFC Super Bowl favorites. My detailed analysis of the situation in Philadelphia can be found here.

Garoppolo has so far made a very good impression on the 49ers and is steadily increasing. The game against the Texans was no exception. Garoppolo shows so many elements of an NFL quarterback and the first signs of the typical schemes within Kyle Shanahan’s offense are more than positive.

Congratulations to the Panthers for winning a critical game against the Vikings before the quasi-playoff game against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but don’t overreact in Charlotte. Firstly, because Newton had only 13 of 25 passports for 137 yards, and secondly, because the Defense finally allowed 24 points and only a few Vikings drops prevented even more points.

Two Big Plays made the difference: the 60-yard touchdown run by Jonathan Stewart right at the beginning and the 61-yard run by Cam Newton, which paved the way for Stewart’s game winning touchdown.

The Vikings – as I have emphasized several times in the past weeks – are extremely strong in playing the Line of Scrimmage as well as the box in general very aggressively and thus not only to contain enemy runs, but also screen passes. Against the Rams this was an important factor for the defence, against Carolina it became their downfall in the two critical moments.

Especially Stewart’s long touchdown run shows this: The Vikings had ten players in the box at a 3rd&1, the only lower placed safety could be “seduced”by the Spiefeld side with tight end and receiver. The Panthers had the perfect play call on it: a pull block together with the lead blocker from the backfield created an overcount situation on the exposed other side. The backside blocks lasted long enough and Stewart had a big gap as well as no opponent behind the box.

Newton’s long run was almost “simpler”. A Zone-Read-Play, in which Carolina’s tendencies also played a role: The Panthers had to respect a play-action play move, again the design of the play move took one side of the Defense quasi out of the game. From then on, it was a simple read of the defensive end as well as three simple one-on-one blocks on Newton’s side, which only had to get out the safety to have a lot of green grass in front of him. Of course Newton is extremely valuable for the Panthers and such runs increase the risk of injury. But only with them is Carolina’s offense really dangerous at the moment. The Panthers need Newton as a weapon in the Run Game, whether they like it or not.

What does this tell us from Viking’s point of view? My opinion about this team hasn’t changed at all. Minnesota has been beating the rams and falcons in the last few weeks and gets a chance to kick Aaron Rodgers and the packers out of the playoff race in Week 16.

The defeat in Carolina did not pull the Vikes down in any way: They entered the game without two O-line starters (Elflein, Remmers) and lost a third with Reiff in the course of the match. This is an enormous mortgage, considering that Carolina’s great strength is the Front Seven. At the same time, Thielen and Diggs had probably their worst seasonal game as a duo.

Nevertheless, Keenum showed some great moves against Pressure. In the end, two defensive mistakes prevented an impressive away win. The Big Plays were the difference, Stewart without his 60-yarder had only 43 yards at 15 runs and Newton without his 61-yarder had nine yards at ten runs. Minnesota’s Defense has once again done a good job here – except for these two scenes. The Vikings are still a very hot Super Bowl candidate.

The sheer mass of scenes and impressions worth mentioning this week brings the category back on track – have fun!

Page 1: Wentz, Garoppolo, Carolinas Big Plays and many tape notes

Page 2: Quarterbacks of the future, Garoppolo, Raiders, Eagles – your questions