NFL: Coin Toss: Firepower imbalance

At the end of week 15, the Atlanta Falcons (8-5): Slides of all kinds are forbidden! Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) the Falcons need a win against the tight playoff race in the NFC in any case, the Bucs on the other side can spit in the soup of their division rivals. But how does it work? mySPOX-User Moo_NFL starts an explanation attempt, SPOX-editor Adrian Franke argues for the Falcons. The game will be shown live on Tuesday night (2.30 a. m.) at DAZN!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) – Atlanta Falcons (8-5) (Tue, 2:30 a. m. live on DAZN)

mySPOX-User Moo_NFL: When the NFL’s schedule designers terminated this primetime game in April of this year, they certainly had something else in mind. Instead of a showdown around the division crown, the national audience sees a game in which the Bucs only want to spit into the soup of their opponent from Atlanta.

However, this will not be an easy task. The Edge-Rush is virtually non-existent, after Adjusted Sack Rate of Football Outsiders you are last with shockingly big backlog. Gerald McCoy’s failure will further reduce the pressure on Matt Ryan. Already in the duel three weeks ago, Ryan didn’t have to take a single bag and used his freedoms for one of his better games of the season.

The biggest problem, however, was Julio Jones, who repeatedly found gaps in the zone or used Man Coverage to gobble up inexperienced Ryan Smith and caught 12 catches for 253 yards on 15 targets. If you want to have a chance, the DVOA-classified passport defense, which has to do without Cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, has to prevent this. It will also be important for the defence to shed its tackling problems. Too often they have been missed and therefore failed to punish the opponents in Third Down for conservative play-calling. The Falcons with their backfield or the nimble Taylor Gabriel could exploit this.

The starting lines Marpet and Dotson are still missing in the offensive, otherwise everyone is on board. Whether this is sufficient depends mainly on whether Winston and Co. Avoid turn-over. There can’t be five more giveaways against the Lions. If this succeeds, I trust the offense to move to the ball, because the Falcons do not tear out defensively no trees despite their strong performance last week. According to DVOA, they are ranked 30th against the race.

Hope for the Bucs is provided by Peyton Barber, who has been used more and more in the last two games and who, with a total of more than 200 yards from Scrimmage and 4.6 yards per attempt, was quite appealing. In week 13 he was the fifth-best RB of the league after DYAR and in week 14 he ran 41 of his 58 yards after contact with opponents. This gives hope that the season’s weak run game will continue to pick up speed despite the weak O-Line and keep Atlantas Defense on and Matt Ryan off the pitch.

On the defensive side, there is hope for takeaways. There you belong to the best of the league, only the Jaguars and Ravens are better. With conquered fumbles, you’re number one. Although this statistic is not predictive, it seems to be a skill rather than luck, especially for Lavonte David. The linebacker has already been able to force five fumbles this season and conquer as many, which nobody else has been able to do for 30 years. Lucky for the ball bearers of the Falcons that David is injured. As far as interceptions are concerned, one of the league’s better players – notable due to the lack of pressure on the opponent’s quarterback.

If, like last week, Ryan again shows inaccurate throws and bad decisions, you are able to capitalize on them. All in all, the Falcons are clear favourites, mainly due to the defensive problems and failures of the Bucs. However, if you can prevent Big Plays, set good tackles and avoid unnecessary mistakes, you could still justify the primetime slot and at least passively intervene in the playoff fight.

Adrian Franke (SPOX): You have already mentioned the two most critical sites for the bucs in this game: No team in the pass rush is more harmless than Tampa – and Lavonte David is out. Matt Ryan has some problems with pressure this season, he won’t get it from the Bucs. This also opens the door to the play-action pass game, but above all Ryan should attack the linebackers.

Tampa recently revealed conspicuous problems when the linebackers were attacked with running backs in the passing game. This was a trademark of the Falcons-Offense under Kyle Shanahan, under Steve Sarkisian this is seen far too rarely. Although Tevin Coleman is absent, Devonta Freeman can also take on this role without any problems.

And at least the tight-end passport packages are also available at Sarkisian, which would be a possible alternative. Not to mention Julio Jones, who from the slot is a matchup nightmare even for a good secondary – and Tampa is certainly not one of those days.

In addition, the Bucs also have gaps in the run-defense: 4.2 yards per opponent’s run, only ten teams allow more. 14 opposing Rushing touchdowns are the fourth highest value and here the losses of David and McCoy will be at least as heavy as against the pass. Probably harder. If Tampa doesn’t succeed in stopping the Falcons’ run game, Atlanta will be able to pass the ball. And then the Bucs-Defense is expecting a very long evening.

Defensively, Run-Defense will enjoy the highest priority. Here the Falcons have always been susceptible to the season and this is the best chance for Tampa Bay to determine the rhythm of the game. At the same time, I expect Atlanta’s improved pass rush to put pressure on Jameis Winston at least a few times behind the backups in the O-Line – and Winston shows with bitter regularity that he tends to make absurd mistakes in these situations.

Then defensive remains one question above all: Can Tampa produce Big Plays in the passing game? The statistics don’t give the Bucs much courage, Atlanta has admitted only 34 Passing Plays of at least 20 yards – it’s the low for the league. As a result, the Falcons only allow 6.6 yards per pass, only the exceptions (4) leave desires unfulfilled.

Tampa entered the season with the aim of bringing a more vertical offense to the field. So far you can’t see anything of this, because the downfield game is the weakest aspect of Winston’s game and the connection to DeSean Jackson doesn’t work at all. Even for Mike Evans, Atlanta should have a good answer with Desmond Trufant.

Dirk Koetter’s team runs the risk of getting involved in a shootout with a Falcons-Offense that is still equipped with a lot of firepower – and of having to rely on constant drives with short passes and efficient runs. Just as Winston plays, how the Run Game looks like and how the O-Line has to present itself in terms of personnel, you can hardly trust Tampa Bay.