It’s Super Bowl Sunday! Tonight it’s finally time for the New England Patriots to meet the Philadelphia Eagles in Minnesota. The Pats have some clear advantages – especially in the quarterback position – on their side. But how can Philly survive? Super Bowl LII will be available live on DAZN from 11.45 pm, with original German and US commentary! For the final tuning, SPOX presents the big Head-to-Head!
Tom Brady vs. Nick Foles
No matter how you turn it, the biggest discrepancy in this Super Bowl is by far the most important. Brady’s in his 16th. Season one as a starter (the 2008 season, when he tore his cruciate ligament in the first game, not included) for the eighth time in Super Bowl, an obscene odds. Nick Foles, his Eagles opponent on Sunday, has three playoff starts.
It’s one of many statistical gimmicks to illustrate the stark contrast between the two quarterbacks, which is clear to everyone anyway: Brady is a future hall-of-famer and will go down in history as the best quarterback of all time, while Foles has been a backup or an emergency solution for most of his career and has already had serious thoughts about the premature end of his career.
Of course, this also has a very specific impact on the pitch. To put it simply, the best way to express it is this: The Eagles have to shape their offences around Foles and give as much help as possible to their quarterback through run pass options, the run game and formations.
The patriots on the other side have with Brady the most intelligent quarterback of the NFL and that goes hand in hand with the complex offense scheme of the defending champion. Brady enjoys ultimate freedom on the Line of Scrimmage and can completely align the offense with the opponent in terms of formations, matchups and general moves. If Brady and the Pats find a weak spot in the opponent’s hand, they work on it until the opponent shows that he can close this leak.
Brady’s ability to bring the offense from the No-Huddle and from various personnel groups to the field is one of the core qualities of this Patriots dynasty. Physically, there are more talented quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers is at the top of this list – but Brady’s total package in conjunction with the Scheme is unrivalled in the league.
By the way, Brady and Foles are the only two quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to have thrown more than 25 touchdown passes in one season and no more than two interceptions: Brady did the trick in 2016 when, after his Deflate Gate suspension, he played 28 touchdowns in twelve games and threw two picks. Foles had almost the same quota in 2013 (27 TD, 2 INT) under Chip Kelly.
Advantage: Patriots
Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James Develin and James White vs. Mychal Kendricks, Dannell Ellerbe, Nigel Bradham
When we talk about the constantly evolving, morphing Patriots-Offense in ever newer forms, this year’s edition is characterized by the role of the running backs, among other things. The patriots have a versatile trio with Lewis, Burkhead and White on the one hand, and especially Burkhead and Lewis have their qualities as receivers and runners between tackles on the other.
Especially Lewis played himself in the foreground. In the last six games of the Regular Season he had eight runs over at least 15 yards, only Marshawn Lynch had more in that period. As far as yards after contact per run (3.17), according to Pro Football Focus, he ranked third among all running backs who played at least 50 percent of the offensive snaps.
This gives New England enormous versatility. The patriots can fit or run from almost any formation and personnel line-up. This is where Develin comes in: The fullback has a role as a matchup forcer. New England likes to come to the field with 21-persons – develin and a running back as well as a tight end with Gronkowkski – forcing the defense to react accordingly.
In other words: Against such a “heavy” formation the Defense has to foresee in most cases sub-packages – i. e. formations with more defensive backs – and instead it has to provide the base formation with more linebackers and defensive linemen. Once the patches have achieved this advantage, they can then suddenly change into a spread formation independent of the personnel and bring the linebackers into disadvantageous matchups.
There is a great danger for the Eagles here. Bradham (0.62 yards per coverage snap allowed, second best value for linebacker this year) and Kendricks are not the problem, but if the Pats manage to keep Philly in 3-Linebacker sets, this could result in simple yards for Lewis, White and also slot receiver Danny Amendola. If the Eagles respond by replacing one of the linebackers with Safety Malcolm Jenkins, New England from 21-personnel will test its power run game.
LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement vs. Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts
A central question will be: How do patriots defend the run pass options? They will play an extremely important role, and if New England succeeds in consistently stopping Philadelphia, Foles will make mistakes sooner or later. According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles played a total of 207 Run Pass Options this season, taking out an average of 4.6 yards, and the Pats had conspicuously big problems against those option plays in the first half against Jacksonville.
The Eagles aren’t as versatile in their backfield as New England, but they have their own qualities: two very physical runners with Ajayi and Blount – both of them were in the top 10 in the regular season, Blount (3.56 yards per run after contact) even led the league in terms of average yards after contact with opponents in the regular season. Clement can take on the role of the AFC Championship Game Corey Grant, who collected 59 receiving yards against New England over short passes.
The patriots like to play in big nickel (three instead of two safeties), whereby Harmon or alternatively Cornerback Eric Rowe – then in normal nickel formation – take over the nickel back. Here, against the Run Pass Options, great discipline is paramount, patriots will try to either lure Foles into traps or force runs by delivering pass options.
The Eagles, however, are also very good in second-level-blocking, where New England’s linebacker and safeties are facing a tough test against the run.
Advantage: Eagles
Page 1: Quarterbacks and Running Backs against linebackers
Page 2: Receiver against Defensive Backs and Offensive Line against Defensive Line
Page 3: Special Teams, Coaches – and the forecast for the match
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