NFL: Third And Long: The quarterback forecast ahead of the Free Agency

The negotiation window will open next Monday, the Free Agency will start on Wednesday and all players with expiring contracts will be allowed to change. The focus is on the quarterback carousel around Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater and Co. In his weekly NFL column, SPOX editor Adrian Franke looks at the most interesting candidates and assigns them to new teams. Also: Possible Free-Agency-Steals, the weakest position groups on the market – and Johnny Manziel!

You also want to ask questions to the SPOX-NFL column? This goes directly to the author!

Which scheme suits you? Cousins is shaped by Shanahan and Gruden primarily by two things: West Coast elements combined with an extremely efficient bootleg play action game. So: Rhythm and timing in the passing game, Big Plays but especially not only about Play Action. Cousins is an accurate passport, last season he showed that he can deliver good performances even in a low-calibre offense.

Which team makes sense? After his time in Washington, Cousins says he is looking for three things above all else: stability within the organisation, full support from the team bosses and a serious chance to win the title. Denver could offer him a lot, but in terms of the schema he could be a good match for Bill Musgrave. But what if the Broncos wobble and Vance Joseph is finally dismissed – as expected towards the end of last season?

The best pure Scheme fit would presumably be with the allegedly generous jets. New York has surprisingly dismissed offensive coordinator John Morton and replaced him with Jeremy Bates, which may have already happened with regard to cousins: Bates learned in Denver under Shanahan and under Rick Dennison that his scheme should come closest to what cousins from Washington know. But what are the chances that New York will soon be a title aspirant with cousins?

In Minnesota, there would be no doubt about where at least some of the offense for cousins should also be familiar: the new Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has recently worked under Doug Pederson, so he has also been given a West Coast stamp here. And the prospect of adding run-pass options and more play-action to this scheme is something cousins must really like.

Forecast: Vikings. Yes, cousins get expensive and coach Mike Zimmer has openly discussed this at the Combine. On the other hand, a franchise quarterback has to be paid for sooner or later, which would also apply to Bridgewater, should it go down, and the vikings are the franchise of all the teams on the QB market, which now has its title window most clearly.

Cousins is the missing piece of the puzzle, Bridgewater would be an enormous risk for Minnesota. If this goes wrong, you have lost another year in the title window – and a quarterback like Cousins will presumably not be available in 2019.

Which scheme suits you? Brees shines in the quite complex, matchup-based, on Underneath Routes and the middle of the field attacking offense of the Saints. Brees has always needed a particularly solid interior offensive line, last season he showed how dangerous he can be as a complementary player next to a dominant run and screen game.

Which team makes sense? Here you can keep it short. Brees and Saints coach Sean Payton have built up a great scheme over the years, and both are used to each other in terms of play calling. There is no team and no offense in which Brees 2018 would fit better.

Forecast: Saints. Brees stays in New Orleans. Financially, they will agree, both sides need each other to attack each other as a very hot contender for the title in 2018.

Which scheme suits you? The comparison of 2016 to 2017 and Jeff Fisher on Sean McVay or Pat Shurmur on Jared Goff and Case Keenum shows impressively how important coaching and schemes are for a quarterback – unless you have one of the few elite QBs. Keenum’s all-expected pre-season, by far the best season of his career, came in the extremely scheme-heavy, formation-rich, co-ordinated routes and free releases for Shurmur’s wide-receiver-based Offense.

Which team makes sense? The biggest steal of the past Free Agency (1 year, 2 million dollars) showed in 2017 that it can work in a good offense on the one hand. On the other hand, he also revealed individual qualities: his pocket behaviour, for example, as well as his accuracy of fit and willingness to take risks, if he trusted the scheme.

However, following Shurmur to New York is not an option, the Giants continue to build on Eli Manning. So he will have to learn a new scheme in any case. A stay in Minnesota wouldn’t be the worst idea in view of Keenum’s familiarity with the receivers and the offensive line, Arizona under Mike McCoy could also fit.

Denver with Bill Musgrave and his power-run-game on the one hand, and the experience with different quarterbacks (Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Nick Foles in Philly and Derek Carr in Oakland) on the other hand, should also be attractive for Keenum.

Prognosis: Broncos. In this scenario, Denver takes the short end of the stick with cousins, and since John Elway doesn’t want to go for a rookie quarterback again, but wants to use the title window of his defense instead, he chooses the “safest” quarterback after cousins – without Brees – for 2018.

Which scheme suits you? An extensive West Coast scheme that uses Bridgewater’s mental advantages. Already in his first two NFL seasons, Bridgewater showed a remarkable understanding of the game. He can read a defense before and after the snap, with small movements he uses the pocket efficiently. His biggest weakness is the downfield passing game, so a mix of spread, West Coast and option routes would probably best serve Bridgewater’s strengths.

Which team makes sense? This mix could be a perfect match for Minnesota, where John DeFilippo will build on many of these elements. The big question is: Are the vikings ready to let the chance pass for cousins pass and go into the coming season with a quarterback risk – instead of a clear contender with cousins?

One thing is clear: Bridgewater needs as much help as possible in terms of O-Line, Run Game and Wide Receiver to find a rhythm and confidence in their own abilities as quickly as possible. Denver, if the Broncos should fail with Kirk Cousins, would be a conceivable option. Offensive Coordinator Bill Musgrave relies on a power run game as the defining identity of his offense, combined with a timing passing game. A good and well-known base for Bridgewater.

One team that could make the most sense for both sides is the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is known to be there for the start of the new league year without quarterback and with a new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy. He has a certain West-Coast character, but has developed this scheme much more complex and at the same time demonstrated a high degree of adaptability to his player material in recent years. With Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, Bridgewater would have two reliable pillars around him.

Prognosis: Cardinals. Arizona enters the new league year without quarterback, Bridgewater wants to prove himself with a one or two-year contract. The cards are currently not actually in the title window, so they can afford to take the risk in a sporty way and secure themselves the chance to find the franchise quarterback of the future after the departure of Arians and Palmer.

Which scheme suits you? Good question. McCarron is 27 years old and has four NFL starts in 2015 season. In the previous year, he threw another 14 passes in total. At McCarron it makes almost more sense to look at the college tape – that’s the image of a good game manager with reliable timing and good throwing accuracy, especially in short pass games.

Which team makes sense? During his Bengals period, Hue Jackson sometimes had an extremely versatile and creative approach. West Coast elements mixed with a number system just like lots of pre-snap-motion, unconventional formations, run-pass options long before they took the NFL by storm and much more: McCarron should have picked up a lot of things in Cincinnati, even though he played little, in training and during the movie sessions.

In the past season, there was little to see of this kind of offense in Cleveland under Jackson, but rather difficult isolation reads dominated the scene. The Browns have an offensive line that gives creative freedom. At the same time, Cleveland’s offense under the new offensive coordinator Todd Haley is likely to look quite different.

In short: McCarron is largely unknown and teams will not know exactly what the 27-year-old brings with him. This goes so far that you can’t even tell whether McCarron has what it takes to become a capable NFL starter.

Forecast: Browns. Cleveland is known to have been eagerly awaiting McCarron in the past season, and hardly any other coach outside of Cincinnati knows the ex-Bengals backup better than Browns coach and ex-Bengals-OC Hue Jackson. McCarron gives Cleveland a starter option for 2018 without the Browns having to spend huge sums of money. At the same time, this ensures that a quarterback with the number 1 pick remains in the race.

Which scheme suits you? Bradford is arguably the most flexible quarterback of all candidates – simply because he has played in so many offenses. Pat Shurmur, Josh McDaniels, Brian Schottenheimer and Norv Turner have been his offensive coordinators. Bradford has a sometimes spectacular arm and is incredibly precise, Vikings fans will still remember the incredibly impressive Season-Opener against New Orleans.

Which team makes sense? The big question at Bradford is not what he is capable of, but simply whether he can stay fit. In 2016, behind a more than shaky offensive line, Bradford had an outstanding season under the circumstances. But which coach trusts his knees in which situation?

Bradford’s injury history will make him cheaper, he is also a candidate for the interim solution. Perhaps even the best candidate for such a job from the entire list.

Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will install his version of the Erhardt-Perkins Offense. On the one hand this is complex and demands a lot from the quarterback – throwing a rookie in here doesn’t seem to make much sense and the strengths of Tyrod Taylor doesn’t serve this offense either – on the other hand Bradford has already gained some experience with it under Josh McDaniels.

Forecast: Bills. This scenario of course presupposes a departure from Tyrod Taylor, the Bills want to play an offense that does not fit Taylor schematically. To the extremely accurate Pocket-Passer Bradford, on the other hand. Buffalo would thus have a good interim solution, behind which Peterman and possibly a rookie could be introduced in the coming draft.

Page 1: The Quarterbacks – who fits where and who goes where?

Page 2: Free-Agency Market Analysis, Manziel, Steals, Cowboys – your questions