NBA: Bojan Bogdanovic at the Indiana Pacers: The Personalized Hot Hand

Bojan Bogdanovic plays the strongest season of his NBA career so far and is one of the top performers in the surprise Indiana Pacers team. The sniper should play a central role in the playoffs – but his shape fluctuations could also become a problem.

29. 13. 21. 14. 2. 6. 11. 6. 9. 28. 18. 17.

These are not next week’s lotto numbers, but the points scored in Bojan Bogdanovic’s last twelve games.

And they show that Bogdanovic is more than just a simple role-player for the Pacers this season. The Croatian, along with his shooting and efficiency, is a real weapon for the current fifth-place finishers at the Eastern Conference. In March alone, Bogdanovic won three matches for Indiana. Against Washington, Milwaukee and last Friday against the Clippers, Indy narrowly won. In all three games, Bogdanovic scored at least 20 points, scored at least 58 percent from the field, at least 50 percent from downtown and at least 75 percent from the free-throw line.

But his scoring figures also show that Bogdanovic is anything but constant and has already missed a double-digit score 17 times this season. After a solid start to the season in October, the 28-year-old caught fire, hit more than 50 percent out of the field in November, almost 50 percent from the parking lot and hit an average of 16 points. In December and January, almost nothing wanted to come together again (less than 45 percent out of the field, less than 32 percent threesome, less than 12 points per game) – only to suddenly turn up the heat again in February with almost 19 points per game.

A few weeks before the playoffs, the Pacers have to ask themselves what kind of players they can expect from Bojan Bogdanovic in the postseason. A player with the Croatian’s strengths could become even more valuable to them in the hot phase of the season.

Bogey, as the Pacers fans call him, is a spot-up shooter like he’s in the book – even stronger in Indianapolis than at his previous stations. His playing is highly efficient, particularly valuable from an analytical point of view. He seems to have just had a dream of Daryl Morey, the general manager of the Houston Rockets.

Bogdanovic is not a player who creates his own litter. More than 94 percent of his threesomes are preceded by an assist, which is the absolute top of the league. He also takes around 30 percent of his experiments out of the corner. The Croatian takes care of spacing and punishes too aggressive Help-Defense mercilessly. A remarkable role for a player who was the tournament’s top scorer less than two years ago at the Olympic Games.

But the special role pays off: Bogdanovic’s True Shooting Percentage is one of the best in the league with around 60 percent. With the Pacers, only Darren Collison, who is almost on a 50-40-90 course, comes to an even better value. For comparison: Superstars like Chris Paul, Klay Thompson or Damian Lillard all have a similar value to Bogdanovic this season.

All these unquestionably outstanding figures would, however, be worthless if Bogdanovic were to disappear again in the hot phase of the season. In the five games before his points explosion against the Clippers, Bogdanovic remained completely pale and scored less than seven points per game. In the playoffs such a thing would be inexcusable – after five games, the series could already be over.

This shortcoming is even more serious, as the Croatian can only help his team to a very limited extent in games in which he dives as a scorer. Bogdanovic is an island talent: he is without doubt one of the NBA’s best spot-up shooters, but in other areas of the game he has major flaws.

The 28-year-old is a below-average ball handler. His turnover percentage of almost ten percent is far too high for a player who is rarely or never responsible for the buildup. This is another reason why it is used off the ball to a high degree. In addition, he has a noticeable lack of speed, which is particularly evident on the defensive from time to time.

Bogdanovic is not the first European winger to have an upper hand in the super athletic dominated NBA. However, if it cannot compensate for this flaw with offensive firepower, it could become a weak point – especially in the playoffs.

The “hot hand” so often quoted in sports reporting cannot be proven analytically. This has often been proven in the meantime. When looking at Bojan Bogdanovic, however, one can hardly avoid believing in the phenomenon somewhere. His performance fluctuations are too strong. Too blatant his runaways up. The Pacers have to hope their sniper gets a couple of hot weeks in the playoffs.