NBA: AtB Mailbag: The Finals, Doncic, the Mavs and GOAT LeBron

Welcome to the new issue of Above the Break – the SPOX NBA column! In the middle of the finals, NBA editor Ole Frerks empties his mailbox and answers readers’ questions. Topics: The Finals, LeBron James as GOAT, the Draft, the limits of Morey-Ball – and many more!

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@mtorzan97: Would you have thought the Cavs would be in for a surprise if they had won Game 1?

Yes, a Cavs win in Game 1 would have increased the chance of a long and exciting series, but ultimately it wouldn’t have changed the fact that the Warriors are the better team.

In fact, almost everything went as Cleveland had dreamed: LeBron James was in absolute God-Mode, Kevin Love delivered more than solid apart from the threesome, the Warriors-Defense was far below its usual level and the Cavs-Bank could even make the duel with the dubs almost completely balanced (23:24). Kevin Durant was anything but effective and Andre Iguodala wasn’t even there.

Of course, the Cavs could have scored better (only 10/37 3FG), but we can agree that this was one of their best playoff performances, maybe even the best, as LeBron himself said. And yet: The Warriors could have won this game even if George Hill had hit his second free throw, there was still time on the clock. Even if J.R. Smith had immediately risen up and hit instead of showing one of the dumbest actions in playoff history, victory would not have been certain yet.

What I’m saying is that the margin for error is completely different for both teams. The Cavaliers have to play almost perfectly to win games in this series, a “B-performance” is usually enough for the Warriors. Game 2 more realistically reflected the balance of power in this series. Golden State is the better team.

At the same time, however, I do not want to completely ignore the psychological component. I doubt it, but maybe the Dubs would have started to wonder if they had lost that game. It wouldn’t have been the first time that a certain dynamism developed and the top favourite suddenly stood with its back to the wall.

Instead, the Cavaliers have lost this game in the bitterest way and thus psychologically cashed in the exact opposite. The aftereffects were also quite clear to them in game 2. I still don’t think they’re gonna get sweeped, rather I’m betting on a win next night. But they’ve forgiven their best chance to get the Warriors thinking.

@tjaitjjjsch: With this year’s playoffs, has LeBron become GOAT for good?

I’ve written it several times now – LeBron is the GOHT, the greatest of his time. Like Michael Jordan was in his day, Bird/Magic and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar before him, and Bill Russell before him. Different generations, different rules, completely different leagues and almost different sports are what we are talking about here, which is why I do not like the “GOAT” term in principle.

There can be no real consensus in this discussion because it ultimately depends on personal preferences or on which arguments one wants to pay more attention to and which less. This is left up to the individual – although both Jordan and LeBron have their “missionaries” who believe they know the absolute truth, there is no completely objective “right” decision.

But what you can say in view of the current playoffs: The gap between LeBron and all other current players in the NBA, especially the designated “No. 2” Durant, is still quite wide. That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked if LeBron should become final MVP even if his team loses, even if no one has managed to do so since Jerry West in 1969.

@kraus_luca: What an unattractive spielerisches poverty testimony for both teams. No plan B. That’s the downside of the Morey Ball, if the threesome doesn’t fall. Do you have an explanation? And can you win a championship with a gambler like Harden?

This question came up after Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals and I “saved” it. Because I do not agree with the report of poverty: The Rockets had a plan B, called Chris Paul, which was perhaps the most important factor in winning these games in games 4 and 5. After his injury, the dynamics of their game changed and they were back in a similar situation as in the previous season.

That meant Harden and Eric Gordon were de facto the only players who could create something with the ball in their hand. That worked well in games 6 and 7 for one half, then they were out of breath and then the quality of the Warriors also prevailed at some point, because the three on Houston’s side did not want to fall any more.

That they tried the threesome was, in my opinion, not wrong. Of course I would have liked to have seen more moves to Harden’s basket in the second half, whose performances were certainly not flawless in the end, but: The Rockets explicitly internalized this style of play because it gave them the best chance against Golden State.

It won’t be possible to accumulate as much talent as the Warriors because of the Salary Caps, so the Rockets tried mathematics – and they almost made it! This should not be swept under the carpet. The Rockets have created more excitement this season than anyone would have thought realistic before the season. That deserves respect.

And as for the “gambler” Harden – yes, you can win a championship with such a player. The Rockets would have been pretty close without the CP3 violation. Maybe they would have lost the last two games with CP3, but even then you shouldn’t have deduced a dogma “against Harden” from that.

The Rockets didn’t lose to anyone, they lost to one of the most talented teams in NBA history. The fact that things got so tight at all speaks more for the team’s suitability for the championship than against it.

@TheHubser: Does CP3 really stay with the Rockets?

There’s really no reason to doubt it. CP3 has often stressed that he is happy in Houston, and Daryl Morey has also stressed after the play-off that he will remain “100 percent” – then I believe the gentlemen too. What remains to be seen is whether the Rockets will really offer the 33-year-old a five-year contract at the maximum, which I doubt. Probably three years would be more realistic, but either way, everything looks like CP3 will stay in Houston.

@cpshimself: Do fit Celts dominate the East for years?

Impossible to predict. The Celtics are certainly one of the teams in the East that are best positioned in the long term, perhaps they are also at the top here. But there are also question marks among them, such as the point guard situation (Smart’s contract expires, Rozier and Irving one year later) and with it the question of whether the core of the team can be held together permanently.

Besides, we simply don’t yet know how well Tatum and Brown harmonize with Hayward to give another example. On paper, the future of Celtics looks pretty bombastic, but that has to be confirmed on the court. Especially since they’re not the only team with talent in the East.

There are the Sixers, or the Bucks, who will probably present themselves very differently under Mike Budenholzer in the future. Last but not least, there is still the possibility that LeBron James will stay in the East. Since he actually dominated the conference for years and still dominates it, even with Jordan Clarkson on the team, we should not rush into appointing a heir to the throne.

@ibbe089: Will PG13 stay in OKC or will he settle in LA? What about the Lakers in general after the offseason? How do you rate the squad for a playoff?

The latter is difficult to answer until you know the former. Before Draft and Free Agency these questions are basically very speculative – I think George will leave OKC and go to either L.A. or Philly, but I don’t know. I am convinced anyway that a large part of the Free Agency will depend on what LeBron does, and it is well known that this cannot be seen in the cards on this issue. But as in 2010 and 2014, his decision will have a fairly direct influence on what other big fish like George will do.

To evaluate the Lakers in general: With Ball, Ingram and Kuzma (and Hart) they are at least already on the right track to be a playoff team again soon. How quickly this will happen, however, depends on the one hand on “foreign” free agents and on the other hand on whether they hold their RFA Julius Randle.

There is still a lot of work ahead of them, the squad will look quite different next season: There are currently only 8 players under contract for the next season, one of whom is called Luol Deng. I am confident that Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka will get one or two stars this summer, but before we know it for sure we won’t be able to realistically assess their playoff chances for the coming year at least. But I also like the medium-term prospects when LeBron should not come in summer.

Page 1: The Finals, LeBron as GOAT and the limits of Morey-Ball

Page 2: Doncic and Wagner in draft, the Mavs and team-friendly contracts