NFL: Patriots without Edelman: And now?

The New England Patriots will probably have to make do without Julian Edelman for the first four games of the upcoming Regular Season: The Wide Receiver was blocked because of the ingestion of forbidden substances, the objection is still pending. The suspension also brings positive aspects – but New England will once again have to adjust temporarily.

Julian Edelman is – if fit – not only one of the best slot receivers in the NFL; it is his connection to Tom Brady, which has grown over the years and makes him really valuable for the Patriots.

No receiver received more targets in the 2016 season including playoffs than Edelman (181), no receiver saw more passes in his direction in the Regular Season without an interception than Edelman (146 – no one else over 110). Statistics as a symbol for coordination and trust between a quarterback and a wide receiver.

In New England’s offense, which relies heavily on option routes – i.e. routes where receivers have different options during a turn, depending on what the defense does – the pass catchers and the quarterback have to read the defense exactly the same. For Edelman and Brady this was in a way the ideal idea of this offense.

Edelman’s 2.42 yards per run slot route were the league-wide top value in 2016, his 724 receiving yards from the slot were a personal career record. Over the past years, Edelman had also continuously increased the percentage of his snaps in the slot: 42 percent in 2014, 51.2 percent in 2015 and finally 53.3 percent in 2016.

The first reaction could be now: New England made it to the Super Bowl last season without Edelman, who missed the entire season due to a cruciate ligament rupture during the preseason. And once again with one of the most dangerous passing games of the entire NFL, with top 3 values in terms of yards per pass (7.9), passing touchdowns (32), and percentage passes at first down (39.5 percent).

The second reaction, however, should be to ask why. Year after year, the Patriots are one of the most exciting teams when it comes to making adjustments of all kinds. Whether the 2-tight-end offensive with Gronkowski and Hernandez, the downfield open around Randy Moss, or the short pass slot attack around Wes Welker and subsequently Julian Edelman – in recent years we have seen numerous different and mostly very successful approaches in Foxboro.

What about last season? New England once again changed and turned towards a downfield passing game. The commitment of Brandin Cooks, one of the best deep receivers in the NFL, played a central role here: of all quarterbacks with at least 400 passes, only Jameis Winston (10.7 intended Air Yards), Carson Wentz (10.2), Russell Wilson (10.1), DeShone Kizer (9.6) and Ben Roethlisberger (9.5) threw the ball further than Brady (9.4).

Cooks also played the most snaps of all skill position players in New England (92.7 percent), no other wide receiver reached over 52 percent. However, Cooks is gone again, via Trade the Patriots gave him to the Los Angeles Rams and also Danny Amendola, the “natural” replacement for Edelman (49.8 percent of the snaps played in the pre-season), has left the Patriots in the Free Agency.

So what does the Patriots Offense 2018 look like?

The departure of Cooks, combined with Jordan Matthews’ commitment and Julian Edelman’s anticipated comeback, already suggested that the trend should move in a different direction: Back to the short pass game, where Brady gets rid of the ball faster, reducing the number of hits. With Brady’s age and the redesigned offensive line in mind an understandable decision.

This approach will not change fundamentally, even without Edelman against Houston and Miami and in Jacksonville and Detroit. Matthews would be the first logical alternative, the former outside receiver has already made the switch to the slot in Philadelphia. Six-round pick Braxton Berrios is also an option, Berrios is quite similar as a player type Edelman. First-round pick Sony Michel will also play a flexible role in passing, while Gronkowski is and remains the number one option.

Nevertheless, it will be exciting to see how Bill Belichick reacts, because none of the available receivers already has a pronounced tuning with Brady and Wide Receiver usually need time to get used to the complex Patriots openness. It is therefore quite possible that Rex Burkhead and James White, in addition to Michel, also stand on the pitch more frequently and thus act as slot receivers. White in particular has often played this role very well in the past.

For Edelman himself, the suspension, if it remains, could also have positive side effects. The now 32-year-old also lives from his agility, an additional (forced) break to really reach 100 percent after the cruciate ligament rupture will not do him any harm. For the really important Patriots games, which – without disrespecting the AFC East – usually take place in the second half of the season, he will then be more rested.