The St. Louis Cardinals are about to lose out to the competition in the National League Central. After the expulsion of manager Mike Matheny and numerous setbacks, another season without playoffs threatens. SPOX analyses the situation in Missouri and ventures an outlook into the near future.
After a “magical” introduction by rookie starter Daniel Poncedeleon, as interim manager Mike Shildt put it, star relief Jordan Hicks gave the Reds their first hit in the game on Monday evening. One inning later, Cincy also shot the game and won with a walkoff RBI single by Dilson Herrera.
What looks like a sensitive low blow fits like a fist to the eye for the St. Louis Cardinals this season. There is great potential in the Missouri troops, but it is called up too rarely. And they actually kept their heads above water with two victories from five games in the series against Chicago Cubs at the start of the second half of the season.
The Cardinals have always been one of the most talented teams in the National League. After all, they’ve already won two titles this century and won four Pennants! St. Louis have only missed the playoffs six times since 2000, but now twice in a row with a good chance that this dry spell will last another year. There were three years in series without postseason in St. Louis last from 1997 to 1999.
Since the NLDS bankruptcy against the Cubs in 2015, the Cardinals are now waiting for playoff participation. This is a fact that those responsible are well aware of – and that is a nuisance to them. As a result, the cards split up with manager Mike Matheny before the All-Star-Break, who led the team four more times into the post-season after the last World Series triumph in 2011 – three times in series in the NLCS – in 2013 even into the World Series.
Even more: Matheny always had a positive balance with the Cardinals. And also on July 14, the day of his release, the Cardinals were a game over .500 (47-46) – after three bankruptcies in a row.
However, the current sporting situation alone was not the only reason for changing the skipper. Rather, it seems to be an accumulation of numerous questionable decisions and events.
Recently, for example, it turned out that Matheny hadn’t had a serious talk with Outfielder Dexter Fowler, one of the team’s top earners (16.5 million a year) for some time. A player who is very popular with the team and fans.
On the pitch, Matheny’s bullpen management and his sheer ignorance of analytics-based strategy stand out. He doesn’t believe in defensive shifts and is even one of those who even want to ban them. He doesn’t like platoons or matchup-based pitching changes.
And he sometimes pitched his starters too long to give them the opportunity for personal victories instead of changing in a relief at the right time. He was also never willing to bring his top-relievers earlier than usual when the fire was on.
All these are manager tendencies from prehistoric times, which had already caused irritation for a long time, are – or were? – the Cardinals as one of the most modern organizations of Major League Baseball. Jeff Luhnow, the current architect of the Houston Astros’ success, grew up in the Cardinals system.
As always in the last few years, St. Louis started the season with a formidable line-up and rotation and bullpen also made a lot of progress. For the outfield, Marcell Ozuna got rid of the Miami Marlins. But the cards with pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara even gave a lot. Otherwise, the bargain of last winter may have come about with the signing of Miles Mikolas, who returned to Japan. But you never really got from that spot.
One reason for this is undoubtedly the numerous injuries to key players – all-star catcher Yadier Molina, for example, missed out on family planning several weeks after a foul tip, while Second Baseman Kolten Wong is currently out with knee problems. But the pitching rotation was even worse, and now Carlos Martinez has also said goodbye to the DL. Also there are Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright and Alex Reyes, who will miss the rest of the season.
Nevertheless, five out of eight regulars beat the league average this season, plus three other substitutes. In rotation, only one of the ancestral starters is pitching under league cut, also only one of the better relievers.
The perplexity of this season, however, is that despite this quality, the cardinals are basically where they should be! According to the Pythagorean expectation of victory and defeat – a probability calculation based on completed and cashed runs – the cardinals should be at 51-49, in fact they are 51-50.
This can now be interpreted in such a way that it simply no longer exists. Or you assume that they just didn’t get you out. If the latter is the conclusion drawn by the front office in St. Louis, then first and foremost a manager with new ideas is needed. Who that will be is currently still in the stars and will not be decided until after the end of the season.
Until then Shildt is in charge and is allowed to advertise on his own behalf. Other candidates named so far are ex-player Carlos Beltran and ex-Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Both played for the Cardinals during active times and at least Girardi is said to have good contacts to General Manager John Mozeliak.
Girardi is not considered a big fan of analytics in baseball, but made enough friends with it during his time in the Bronx. In this respect, he would at least be a candidate that fits the requirements profile.
On the other hand, the cards are equipped for the future. The current squad will become Wainwright, Greg Holland and Bud Norris Free Agents, with only Norris being a sporting loss. However, the likely departures of Wainwright and Holland would free up almost $34 million in annual salaries – not very little in a well-filled free agent market in 2018/19.
The flagship St. Louis Cardinals franchise may currently be in a sporting imbalance, but with more or less major adjustments the path back on the road to success should soon be found. The prerequisites for this are in place.
This article was published without previous view by the Major League Baseball.
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