NFL: Column: Seattle in playoff race – but why?

With the conclusion of week 12, the Regular Season turns into the home straight, and the playoff image becomes more concrete. The Seattle Seahawks play an increasingly prominent role in this, but why? In addition: The farmer sacrifices fall with the Jaguars, deeper problems are however obvious. You don’t have to worry about the Patriots; and what influence does Cooper actually have on the cowboy openness?

You want to ask questions to the SPOX-NFL column? This goes right here to the author!

Seattle went into the season with the publicly communicated approach of wanting to focus more on the run game again. Head Coach Pete Carroll wants to put on a strong run game in combination with the defense, also the sheer number of runs should be increased again. This mission was impressively accomplished – Seattle stands at 31.9 runs per game, the league’s highest score.

And the Seahawks also had several spectacular performances with their Run Game. 273 Rushing-Yards against the Rams, 154 against the Chargers, 176 in Detroit, to name but a few. But as dominant as Seattle looked with his run game: Seattle is really dangerous if you are able to attack Defenses deeply. And the Seahawks can do that.

In the most critical moments of the game against the Panthers, that was exactly the way Seattle won the game. The three longest passing plays of the Seahawks on Sunday came in the second half at Third or Fourth Down and all three had direct scoring implications.

Of course, the big play to Tyler Lockett stood out at the very end: a 43-yard pass one minute before the end, which made the game winning field goal possible.

The Seahawks in Carolina had several successes with this and similar route combinations: Against the Panthers-Secondary, which plays a lot of cover-1 and cover-3 – with only one deep safety each – they pulled the safety through a deep crossing route away from the primary vertical read; in this case Lockett.

In addition there was a coverage switch at the Panthers, which was possibly caused by Locketts short route or by a Pre-Snap communication error. Munnerlyn takes over the outside receiver, instead Cornerback pulls Corn Elder in front of the snap outside – inside.

This puts Munnerlyn directly at a disadvantage against the fast Lockett, whereas Seattle’s Speedster not only gets a free release, but also a free track afterwards to simply sprint straight ahead. Here in the second graph it becomes even clearer how open the page really is.

In general, the vertical passing game is the trump card. Of all quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks, Wilson throws the fifth highest percentage of 20+ YDS passes (15.2 percent), is ranked 10th in downfield accuracy (48.9 percent) and has one of the best TD-INT ratios on such passes, along with Kirk Cousins (11:1). Only Aaron Rodgers can beat him here.

Of all quarterbacks with at least 200 passes this year only Jameis Winston (Average Intended Air Yards: 10.9), Ryan Fitzpatrick (10.2) and Mitchell Trubisky (9.3) throw the ball on average, Wilson is now ahead of Mahomes and Watson.

Over the past two weeks he had combined 193 passing yards at passes over at least 20 yards, Wilson’s only interception in the vertical passing game came in Week 1 against the Broncos.

Whereas earlier in the season Seattle went into the vertical passing game mainly from his play action sets – and this is still an important weapon, Wilson recorded 2.9 yards more per play action pass and stands at nine touchdowns and only one interception via play action – against the Panthers there were again other aids, specifically: additional protection and isolating the primary read. Also in the 35-Yard-Touchdown to David Moore shown here.

And it is immediately noticeable: Seattle uses the same means as later for Locketts long catch. Again, it is a deep crossing route that pulls the only safety away. The Panthers are in Cover-1 with one free Safety and one Zone-Defender in the Underneath-Coverage.

The Seahawks then send Post-Snap Lockett and Baldwin to the same side by running Lockett towards Baldwin’s vertical route. This inevitably leads to coverage, and ultimately both Zone-defenders are on the wrong side. At the same time the Seahawks Wilson in the Pocket provide more time through additional protection, a popular means under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer; be it through an additional offensive lineman, or through running backs and tight ends.

The Panthers attack with a green dog flash (Kuechly flashes after he sees that the running back remains in protection) and a delayed flash (marked purple), but don’t get through in time. The Routes are designed to isolate Moore and give him a one-on-one duel, and it’s not the first time Seattle has done just that.

Moore has generally become a more important part of the offense: Over the first eight weeks of the season, Moore did not receive more than four targets in any game, 6, 3, 8 since week 9 and 5 on Sunday in Carolina. With 18.8 yards per reception, he is one of the big play receivers of the season, only DeSean Jackson, Robby Anderson, Kenny Stills and John Brown are targeted lower on average than Moore (16.6 Average Targeted Air Yards).

The same plan on the Seahawks’ side could also be seen in the third big big play of the second half, a 54-yard pass to Moore at 3rd&12. Again Moore is isolated, again there is additional protection for Wilson and again Seattle takes advantage with a deep crossing route that the Panthers play a lot in cover-3 and cover-1 and therefore very often have a single deep safety on the field.

Wilson had 339 yards against Carolina, a personal season high. Moore and Lockett broke the 100-Receiving-Yard barrier and Seattle scored 30 points – with only 75 Rushing-Yards at a desolate 2.6 Yards per run.

And the Panthers? Carolina was, so to speak, the counter-example that Seattle had already been in several games this season. The Panthers had 220 Rushing-Yards and brought more Total Offense Yards against these Seahawks-Defense on board than any other team so far this season.

But apart from Red Zone problems, Carolina also didn’t have enough explosive plays in the passing game and not enough vertical elements: Cam Newton threw only three passes over 20 yards, one of them for 28 yards and threw an interception. Similar to last week’s surprise defeat against the Lions, when Newton landed in the same category at 1/4 for 34 yards and a pick.

Both teams are in the playoff race, both teams can still hope for a wildcard. However, the past few weeks have made it clear that the vertical passing game might make the difference in the end – in favor of the Seahawks.

Page 1: The Seahawks are on playoff course – thanks to their passing game

Page 2: Ravens and Jackson, the Jags farmer sacrifice – and no worries about the Pats

Page 3: Cowboys-Offense, Cardinals, Browns, 49ers, Play-Calling- your questions