At the end of Week 9, the Green Bay Packers (4-3) will meet the Detroit Lions (3-4) at home in the Monday Night Game. Both teams have been victorious in the last few weeks, but the Lions are running up with their regular quarterback Matt Stafford. Do the Packers still have a chance? SPOX editor Stefan Petri and mySPOX user Vizzy will be discussing the topic at the Coin Toss. The game will be shown live on Tuesday night from 2.30 a. m. on DAZN!
Green Bay Packers (4-3) – Detroit Lions (3-4) (Tue, 2:30 a. m. live on DAZN)
Stefan Petri (SPOX): No doubt, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers I would appreciate the Packers’ chances much better. Nevertheless, there are a few points that make me feel positive.
The first is – of course – Bye Week. Brett Hundley was thrown into the cold water after A-Rod’s failure, first at the Vikings, then against the stronger Saints. During Bye Week, the offense could finally be modified to its strengths, moves could be practiced and sequences could be internalized. Takeaways is not allowed to afford Hundley, but the pass Rush from Detroit is almost as bad as the one from Green Bay with only 13 sacks. So Hundley might have a little more time in his pocket.
Of course, the Lions will deliver the box to neutralize the last good running game of the packers around Aaron Jones – then Hundley will have to do it, and he had against the Saints’ meager twelve completions for 87 yards. But Mike McCarthy could counter with a secret weapon: the Read option. Hundley is good on foot and has often used the option already in college. If you’ve been practicing the read option for two weeks and Hundley gets some freedoms from McCarthy, the Lions will have to react.
In the defensive, Green Bay is particularly pleased about the return of Safety Morgan Burnett. He is our leader,”said Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers, who also knows that the defensive stats without Burnett have literally crashed.
The weaknesses of the packers, for example in the pass rush, cannot be argued away. But the Lions’ O-Line is one of the weakest in the league on both the run and the pass – Clay Matthews and Co. finally deliver it again.
In summary: The packers are more rested, Hundley better integrated into the offense, defensive anchor Burnett is back. And then there’s the home advantage. Packers have won 25 of the last 26 games against Detroit in Lambeau Field. No replacement for Rodgers. But it’s enough for a narrow victory.
mySPOX-User Vizzy: Jim Caldwell’s team is already on the brink of Monday night football. If you want to repeat your move into the playoffs after 2016, you have to win in Wisconsin to avoid having the Minnesota Vikings split. But the chances are not that bad.
If there was talk before the season that the Defense is the Lions’ problem zone, there is currently no question of that. According to the DVOA ranking of Football Outsiders, Detroit is in a very good seventh place (in the previous year it was still 32nd!) and has already forced 16 opponent turnovers, putting it in fourth place in the league. Two players stand out: Glover Quin and Darius Slay. Slay in particular showed the qualities of a shutdown-cornerback several times and held Antonio Brown in a direct duel with nine yards (four targets).
The Green Bay Packers’ offense over Brett Hundley is not judged after the game against Saints and the subsequent Bye-Week, but Lions’ chances should be good if they can control Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery and Hundley’s arm is the deciding factor. The Run Defense is one of the best in the league with approved 3.6 yards per carry and 92 yards per game.
With their own offsets, however, the cogwheels do not yet interlock. Apart from the fact that the Lions won’t have a reliable run game in the near future – one is currently standing at 3.5 yards per carry – the passing game has to increase significantly. Especially the offensive line has to be maintained by Matthew Stafford. In the first seven games the O-Line allowed a total of 25 sacks, which has to be improved. Progress in the last game was already evident.
The Green Bay Packers’ defence is at best average. And this against both the pass (rank 18 according to DVOA) and the run (rank 21 according to DVOA). For Detroit it will be important to successfully complete their own drives. Against the Steelers there were five drives (!) that ended up in the opponent’s Red Zone – that must look different on Monday to take a victory to Motown. X-factors here are on the one hand the recovered rookie Kenny Golladay, but also Theo Riddick as a mismatch from the backfield.
Confidence is made possible above all by the duel between the two quarterbacks. Without Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford is the NFC North’s best quarterback. In a direct duel against the inexperienced Hundley, he will continue to keep the Lions on course for playoffs.
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