The baseball world has been looking to Japan for quite some time now, where Shohei Ohtani attracts attention as pitcher and hitter.Now the Japanese baseball superstar is about to jump into the MLB.He would be a kind of sensation that hasn’t been seen in the USA for a long time.But a transfer in the winter would bring with it some uncertainties.
The international baseball market is a vast field, and not only for amateurs.Many of them are looking to South America, some to Asia.The question of who the best available players are cannot usually be resolved properly.Each team has its own viewpoint, its own scouts, which set different standards.Opinions therefore vary widely.
But everyone agrees on one name: Shohei Ohtani.The 23-year-old Japanese is the star in Nippon Professional Baseball and the current MVP of the Pacific League.And even though he hardly played much this year due to thigh problems, Japanese media assume that he will take the plunge into the MLB already in winter.
But what makes Ohtani so special?Well, he’s throwing a 102-mile-an-hour fastball!He even holds the NPB record for the toughest pitch of a Japanese player at 102.5 miles per hour!In addition, there are several impressive secondary pitches such as a splitter reaching up to 91 miles per hour, a slider scratching at 90 MPH and a curveball.In addition, he should have a sinker and a changeup in his repertoire.
But that is not all.Ohtani is also an extremely capable hitter.And not like a Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw or as these pitcher of the National League are all called, who also produce a homerun.Ohtani can do more.Ohtani is a power hitter who acts as a designated hitter on his days off and was once even out in the outfield.He beat 22 home runs in his MVP season in 2016 and had an OPS of 1,004 – in the MLB currently beat exactly five players over 1,000!
In addition – and this is confirmed by several scouting reports – Ohtani’s young age still has growth potential.The 1.90 metres will remain that way, but the 85 kilograms are still capable of further development in terms of muscle mass.Scout Dave DeFreita’s 2080 baseball scout Dave DeFreitas predicted that by the end of 2016, Ohtani would have what it takes to become an above-average outfielder if he stopped pitching.He is also impressed by his speed and base-running ability.
Jonathan Mayo, a scouting expert and columnist for MLB. com, recently quoted an International Scouting Director of an MLB team saying:”I have recruited Ken Griffey Jr.in Minor Leagues and Alex Rodriguez as an amateur.The enthusiasm for Ohtani is similar to those guys.And similar to pitcher Stephen Strasburg.Compared to Griffey and A-Rod, Ohtani is a less polished hitter and probably doesn’t have the same upside.But he has a chance to become a strasbourg.But what makes him unique is that he can do both, hitting and pitching.”
If Ohtani were to move to the MLB and really appear as a two-way player, i. e. both as a pitcher and a DH, he would rewrite the history books in a way.Because actually this kind of player is extinct.Since the New York Yankees acquired Babe Ruth from the Boston Red Sox, converted him into a tribal right-fielder and prevented him from being pitched, this kind of player was no longer an option.
Success proved New York right at the time, as Ruth developed into a homerun machine that the world had never seen before.Nowadays, such experiments are seen only in the lower Minor Leagues as well as in high school and college.
In this year’s draft, two such players were drawn into the top 4.Hunter Greene went to the Cincinnati Reds, Brendan McKay to the Tampa Bay Rays.As of now, they are allowed to play both, but the long-term tendency is clearly heading towards Mound for Greene, who plays a capable shortstop.It is rumored that McKay’s base will be the first base, although he is allowed to continue doing both.
Ohtani insists on being both a pitcher and a hitter in the MLB and not just in the lower classes of Minor Leagues.He could play outfield, but he hasn’t done so since 2014.2014 was also one of his weaker seasons overall, which is why a certain connection can be assumed.Playing regularly in the outfield and pitching every six days – in Japan, six-man rotations are standard – seems to be too strenuous.But to act as DH on off-days doesn’t seem to cause him any major problems.
“I’ve been doing this for 26 years now, and I’ve seen more players than anyone else, but I’ve never seen a skill set like this before,”Mayo quotes an experienced scout:”This guy is as sharpened as McKay and has Greenes skills, but he runs faster than Greene.”
The way to the majors seems to be mapped out for Ohtani.But the timeline is still debatable.Japanese media speak of a transfer in winter.However, this point in time would be problematic for several reasons.The Collective Bargaining Agreement between the MLB and the players’ union, which has been in force since this season, plays the leading role.
The CBA regulates the obligation of international amateur players.The rule is that someone is considered an amateur as long as he or she is not at least 25 years old and has played professionally in another league for at least six years.Ohtani completes his fifth year in the Pacific League and is only 23 years old.And these circumstances complicate the story immensely.
For an international amateur MLB clubs have a limited bonus money pool.In practice, this means that Ohtani will not be able to collect more than $3.535 million in signing bonuses this winter – if he goes to the Texas Rangers who still have the most money available for this purpose.
The New York Yankees, who acquired an extra “pool money” in their latest trades, are likely to hand the Japanese a cheque of 3.25 million dollars.Teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers or Boston Red Sox, who have significantly exceeded their bonus pool in recent years, are limited this year to $300,000 in cash.
It should also be noted that Ohtani, as an amateur, would be under team control for the first time for six years, just like any other MLB debutant, and would earn a fixed amount per year in the first two to three years.Normally, this would be a relatively meagre 550,000 dollars in the first year, and “true” coal would probably not exist in this scenario before its third or fourth year.A high-end multi-year deal in the Worst Case only after six years in the league.
So Ohtani could not really collect the money this winter.If he were to wait another two years, things would be different.In that case, he would also be a Free Agent according to MLB standards and could directly sign a fully guaranteed Major League contract.
Page 1: Comparisons to previous top stars and international amateur status
Page 2: Tanaka’s contract, potential teams and Ohtani’s motivation
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